When to buy

[donheff]

I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?

 

[NW-Bound]

A bit too early yet, I think.

I only feel ashamed to be a market timer when I lose money.

 

[MichaelB]

Of course, if the current equity market weakness around the world is a reflection of slowing sales and weakening earnings also around the world, a resolution of the fiscal cliff issue may not stop markets from declining, in the US or elsewhere.

 

[NW-Bound]

Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.

They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!

 

[MichaelB]

Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.

They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!

You should protest by not going...

 

[Lsbcal]

I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?

Looking at my little chart here: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/how-far-weve-come-now-what-63224.html

... it's a no brainer. All you have to know is if you are going to parallel the pink, red, or green curves. Then you dump it in. Simple.

P.S. I'm rooting for a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward.

 

[Tyro]

I'm rooting for a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward.

If I could get a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward, I would be SOOO happy.

 

[Animorph]

I like to start adding when the market is 20% down. Then if it goes another 30% down I don't feel too bad, and can invest some more. Not time yet for me.

 

[FIREd]

I have been buying a couple of high quality -though cyclical- stocks that are near their 52-week lows.

 

[W2R]

I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?

Good idea! I DCA'd on the way down during the crash of 2008, and that worked out very well for me. I wasn't so much market timing, as having cash that needed to be invested for the long term. People will tell you that DVA'ing is better than DCA'ing, and probably it is, I suppose, but DCA'ing must be a reasonably good second choice because it worked out spectacularly for me.

At any rate, being a bit of an optimist I would never have thought the market could have tanked to such an extreme extent in 2008. So, had I chosen a date it probably would have been much too early.

 

[NW-Bound]

You should protest by not going...

I wish. It was too late. Tickets were paid in full, and the charge appeared nearly instantaneously when I checked my online AmEx account. They wasted no time, these dirty people.

I also bought tickets too early in another aspect. Another day, and I could have befriended a mod to have the charge put on redduck's card. Talk about bad timing. Sigh...

 

[LOL!]

I hate to be a timer but I bought $250K in equities when we tanked over the debt ceiling crisis and now I am tempted to do it again over the fiscal cliff. Today looks like a good day if Obama's address doesn't kick things higher. But we could go lower and lower until early next year. Dollar cost average on the way down?

I'm following LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter. It has been quite uncanny in the accuracy of recommended moves.

 

[BTravlin]

Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.

They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!

But there were only "2 seats left at this price". Just means they will change the price and doesn't necessarily mean they won't lower the price.

But I agree, they are dirty rats!

 

[NW-Bound]

But there were only "2 seats left at this price". Just means they will change the price and doesn't necessarily mean they won't lower the price.

Yes, they were telling the truth when they meant that there were 2 seats left at that price. What they did not reveal was that there would be more even at a lower price. Well, it's salesmanship. Same as in politics, they may tell the truth, but are under no obligation to tell the whole truth.

Actually, I was only disappointed because I was so proud that I snatched such a good deal. It still is, because when I changed the flight date by a day or two, the price went quite a bit higher. Supply and demand, I guess.

In the grand scheme of things, the $200 extra that I could have saved meant only 2 mediocre meals for us when we get there. Food in Hawaii is expensive!

 

[traineeinvestor]

If I could get a 7% per year (after inflation) slope going forward, I would be SOOO happy.

If I could get 7% pa after inflation I would be seriously #%*^€$~ that I didn't retire a few years earlier.

 

[HFWR]

I'm reasonably content with my current allocation, and if stocks sink below their re-balance bands, I'll buy.

 

[veremchuka]

Ah, talk about market timing, my wife just checked the price of the tickets to Hawaii that I bought 2 or 3 days ago. I bought less than 3 weeks ahead, and thought I got a good deal.

They dropped the price another $100/ticket. Dirty rats! After I bought, their site claimed there were only 2 seats left. Now, there are 7. Scoundrels! Pirates!

OUCH! I was po'ed cuz I bought 100 gallons of heating oil after waiting over many months. I swear I had fumes in the tank and I just couldn't wait any longer just to see the price drop 30+ cents a gallon, yours is a lot worse.

The drop has been about 5%, too early for me. If it drops to 10% I'll put some money to work, at 40/60 I'd like to get to 50/50, otherwise I'm staying put.

 

[foxfirev5]

I'm reasonably content with my current allocation, and if stocks sink below their re-balance bands, I'll buy.

Yes, keep it simple

 

[NW-Bound]

OUCH! I was po'ed cuz I bought 100 gallons of heating oil after waiting over many months. I swear I had fumes in the tank and I just couldn't wait any longer just to see the price drop 30+ cents a gallon, yours is a lot worse.

"Take a little chance
It don't mean nothing
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose

And don't you know that life is just a game
That you play, win or lose, it's all the same"

Chic - Sometimes You Win (1978 Disco) - YouTube

 

[W2R]

I feel like I am market timing every time I buy gas.

 

[dmdunca44]

You should protest by not going...

+1

I couldvtake the tickets off your hands...

 

[samclem]

Donheff, I've had these same (heretical) thoughts. But I'm resisting any impulse to act, as it usually ends badly for me. But if you buy at depressed prices you are hoping that the fiscal cliff is averted (and the prices go back up) or if we sail over the cliff that the equities were still priced too low. That's a lot of uncertainty.
Maybe just sell defense stocks short?
I'm not going to do anything.

 

[panhead]

These same thoughts have been going thru my head. I have some $$ that really should be put to work, but I'm hesitating as I'm thinking like a (nasty, dirty) market timer. Also, if stocks do go up and your allocation says re-balance into bonds, are you really going to do this? Maybe short term bond funds? I'm hesitating now and the cash pile that needs some place to go is getting bigger. Maybe I should just keep DCA'ing toward my target allocation even if it does say buy bonds, or whatever......then again the market might go down 10% making a good buying oppy, or it may go up, or...or....Arrrgghh! What to do?

 

[NW-Bound]

Ask not what you do is called dirty by others. Ask if it would make you money. That should be the driver.

Since when is buying/selling stocks considered immoral or unethical?

 

[MasterBlaster]

Market-Timing Nirvana

Don't do this !