Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 06-12-2017, 06:50 PM   #81
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,451
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
So I've stopped rebalancing and I'll let my AA drift up towards 75/25.
Maybe we are an indicator of the upcoming downdraft?
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-12-2017, 06:53 PM   #82
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,451
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Quote:
Originally Posted by jim584672 View Post
Borrow 30% ...
This word is unknown to me. I have been retired for 14 years. Why would I want to rent money?
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 08:07 PM   #83
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Henderson
Posts: 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by nun View Post
My reason to stay in equities is to maximize potential return to leave more to my heirs.
I'm with you. That maximization is one of my reasons for staying in equities. The other important reason is what I mentioned before: I want to help provide the capital that helps people have jobs, passing along the benefits I have received. As I see it, the two goals are entirely congruent. Whatever I do to further one, furthers the other too. I welcome discussion of these points.
Ted_Shepherd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-12-2017, 08:16 PM   #84
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 17,256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted_Shepherd View Post
I'm with you. That maximization is one of my reasons for staying in equities. The other important reason is what I mentioned before: I want to help provide the capital that helps people have jobs, passing along the benefits I have received. As I see it, the two goals are entirely congruent. Whatever I do to further one, furthers the other too. I welcome discussion of these points.
Are you actually adding to the capital in the economy if you are just buying and selling existing stock?
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 05:12 AM   #85
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,688
Over the longer term, I worry more about the affect of inflation than market fluctuations, so reducing equities/increasing bonds = increasing risk IMHO. YMMV.

I'll probably change my view next time the market falls 20+%.
__________________
Budgeting is a skill practised by people who are bad at politics.
traineeinvestor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 06:28 AM   #86
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Koolau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 6,628
Quote:
Originally Posted by traineeinvestor View Post
Over the longer term, I worry more about the affect of inflation than market fluctuations, so reducing equities/increasing bonds = increasing risk IMHO. YMMV.

I'll probably change my view next time the market falls 20+%.
Yeah, if someone ever comes up with a fool-proof solution to significant inflation, let me know. As far as I'm concerned, that's the most likely doom for my plan. I lived through "high" inflation and saw what it could do. I was empl*yed at the time which helped since I got raises making up for most of the carnage. Now, I have to do all the "making up" for myself. I'm not convinced that equities will help a lot with "high" inflation (however one defines that).

All of the standard strategies (hold a mortgage, buy PMs, hold equities, TIPs, etc.) have their place, but nothing is guaranteed which is why I try to do a little bit of everything (not a mortgage, heh, heh.) One of the things which should help those of us who are older is that we no longer need to purchase a lot of things (with a little luck, I'll never need another lawn mower, mattress, furniture, carpet, man's suit, leather shoes, etc.) But I can foresee cost of health care skyrocketing even more than they are now and all kinds of other "services" which oldsters sill need (handyman, house-cleaner, plumber, etc.)

So these are the things that keep me "investing" even if it's only half-heartedly. YMMV
__________________
Ko'olau's Law -

Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
Koolau is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 08:38 AM   #87
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Alberta/Ontario/ Arizona
Posts: 3,393
Quote:
Originally Posted by jim584672 View Post
Those in #2, why not add some leverage as well? Borrow 30% and go 130% long.
Right. The 2008-2009 recession cured me of that strategy.
Danmar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 08:38 AM   #88
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 7,654
Are there studies showing stocks are the best inflation hedge? I've read more articles and books along these lines:

"Broad equity returns have not intrinsically provided a good hedge against inflation."

https://www.pimco.com/en-us/insights/viewpoints/viewpoints/using-equities-to-hedge-inflation-tread-with-care/


and this:

"No surprise here. TIPS — Treasury inflation-protected securities — are indexed to inflation to protect investors from the negative impact of inflation — beat inflation 80% of the time, making it best of breed in this category."

Read more: 9 Top Assets for Protection Against Inflation

When we were first thinking about ER we noticed 30 year TIPS were at a 2% real yield. We looked at how much we'd have in income from our SS, pensions and 2% on the portfolio with minimal risk and thought cool, good enough. Real yields on TIPS went down since then but so have our expenses so it has worked out okay. We're not big risk takers so our focus has been more on low overhead and some easy side income streams than portfolio growth.

I made my own retirement spreadsheet and then we had a retirement planning session with a mutual fund company rep running their retirement calculator to make sure my numbers were on track. He kept telling us we needed stocks for growth and we pointed out his own company retirement calculator showed we'd be fine with a 100% AA of all short term bonds.
__________________
Even clouds seem bright and breezy, 'Cause the livin' is free and easy, See the rat race in a new way, Like you're wakin' up to a new day (Dr. Tarr and Professor Fether lyrics, Alan Parsons Project, based on an EA Poe story)
daylatedollarshort is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 10:11 AM   #89
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Henderson
Posts: 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gumby View Post
Are you actually adding to the capital in the economy if you are just buying and selling existing stock?
How do you measure the capital in the economy if you do not include the value of existing stock? What is the Total value of US stock market $14 trillion
Ted_Shepherd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 10:15 AM   #90
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,451
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
If we ever get back to 6% official inflation, I think stocks will become necessary to hedge.

But I am not betting on that anytime soon.

Gumby
I think a bouyant stock market makes it easy and cheaper for companies to have additional offerings to raise money for expansion.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2017, 12:15 PM   #91
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 17,256
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted_Shepherd View Post
How do you measure the capital in the economy if you do not include the value of existing stock? What is the Total value of US stock market $14 trillion
My point is that a company raises a finite amount of capital on the initial stock offering (minus the investment bankers' cut). What the stock sells for on the secondary market after that is irrelevant to the company's balance sheet.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
43- To Quit or Not to Quit- and when... ugeauxgirl Hi, I am... 33 02-04-2016 04:09 PM
just QUIT at 44. joebloe Hi, I am... 19 05-05-2014 10:23 PM
Just can't quit MRGALT2U Life after FIRE 27 07-12-2005 07:37 PM
Why don't more people just quit? RockMiner Other topics 66 05-02-2005 01:21 PM
Trailer Home with Land or Small House...You Decide daystar Young Dreamers 18 12-04-2004 11:20 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:33 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.