Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-21-2018, 04:22 AM   #101
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Mid Town
Posts: 119
Quote:
Originally Posted by chrisaukcam View Post
My prediction is that the politicians won't act until they have to - keep kicking the can down the road and only when it is close to a crisis will they act.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crabby Mike View Post
If then ...
There is a reason they have not acted.
augam is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-21-2018, 06:34 AM   #102
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
Quote:
Originally Posted by augam View Post
Unable to pay 100% of benefits. I do not believe anyone will make any changes prior to that for obvious reasons.

Keeping all politics out of this course.
Okay thanks. Seems like an odd use of the term "default", but I understand.

I think you are wrong. I'm not sure I see any politicians who want to be the ones who threw out grandma's social security. But we'll see.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 06:51 AM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,003
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
I'm not sure I see any politicians who want to be the ones who threw out grandma's social security.
^ This.

The Importance of Social Security Benefits to the Income of the Aged Population

50% of those over age 65 currently rely on SS for half or more of their income.
25% of those over age 65 currently rely on SS for 90% or more of their income.

To cut SS benefits to those who rely on it so heavily would be political suicide. These are the folks who vote.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 06:57 AM   #104
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,664
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it. OK it is fun to speculate and it does break up our day. But there is not a lot we can do other than get our own houses in order. We are also assuming what we read is actually true about a potential demise, haircut, or whatever. At least based on current speculation we have ~16 years give or take to get our houses in order assuming we (I actually) even make it that far.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
ShokWaveRider is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 07:20 AM   #105
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 6,681
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
Okay thanks. Seems like an odd use of the term "default", but I understand.

I think you are wrong. I'm not sure I see any politicians who want to be the ones who threw out grandma's social security. But we'll see.
The 1984 reform began taxing some (50%) of grandma's SS benefits, and nearly everyone involved got re-elected. Only 16 incumbent House members and 3 incumbent senators ran and lost. And President Reagan got re-elected, too.
__________________
Retired in late 2008 at age 45. Cashed in company stock, bought a lot of shares in a big bond fund and am living nicely off its dividends. IRA, SS, and a pension await me at age 60 and later. No kids, no debts.

"I want my money working for me instead of me working for my money!"
scrabbler1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 08:12 AM   #106
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
athena53's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrabbler1 View Post
The 1984 reform began taxing some (50%) of grandma's SS benefits, and nearly everyone involved got re-elected. Only 16 incumbent House members and 3 incumbent senators ran and lost. And President Reagan got re-elected, too.
Yeah, but only RICH Grandmas so it's OK! ("Rich" is pretty much anyone who has decent income from sources other than SS.) And now 85% is taxable. That's the impact for THIS rich Grandma.
athena53 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 09:17 AM   #107
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 1,019
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrabbler1 View Post
The 1984 reform began taxing some (50%) of grandma's SS benefits, and nearly everyone involved got re-elected. Only 16 incumbent House members and 3 incumbent senators ran and lost. And President Reagan got re-elected, too.

I read an analysis that explained that one big reason that the 1984 reform was able to pass is that the legislation was designed so that both parties would take roughly the same political hit. So if some were hurt by taxing grandma's benefits, others were hurt by different aspects of the law.
Which Roger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 09:30 AM   #108
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 6,681
Quote:
Originally Posted by Which Roger View Post
I read an analysis that explained that one big reason that the 1984 reform was able to pass is that the legislation was designed so that both parties would take roughly the same political hit. So if some were hurt by taxing grandma's benefits, others were hurt by different aspects of the law.
This is why some form of divided government is the one most likely to pass SS reform (when doing so becomes politically preferable overall to doing nothing, as was the case in the early 1980s). Both parties will have to hold hands and jump off the cliff together so neither side can score political points against the other. Both sides will have to abandon their most extreme reform proposals in order to gain enough support from the other side. Both sides will have to somewhat embrace some of the less extreme proposals from the other side. Difficult? Very much so. Impossible? No.
__________________
Retired in late 2008 at age 45. Cashed in company stock, bought a lot of shares in a big bond fund and am living nicely off its dividends. IRA, SS, and a pension await me at age 60 and later. No kids, no debts.

"I want my money working for me instead of me working for my money!"
scrabbler1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 11:49 AM   #109
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it.
You can feel helpless and do nothing.

Or you can vote.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 11:51 AM   #110
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrabbler1 View Post
The 1984 reform began taxing some (50%) of grandma's SS benefits, and nearly everyone involved got re-elected. Only 16 incumbent House members and 3 incumbent senators ran and lost. And President Reagan got re-elected, too.
History tells us that raising taxes can happen safely.
Doing away with Social Security? That's not a bet most politicians would take.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 01:23 PM   #111
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Cut-Throat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 1,172
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
You can feel helpless and do nothing.

Or you can vote.

+1
Cut-Throat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 02:15 PM   #112
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
jollystomper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 6,129
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it.

1. Vote
2. Pay attention as proposed alternatives are surfaced, and plan accordingly regarding their potential impact to you.
3. Build a retirement plan that is not totally dependent on current SS projections for you to survive. If you luck out and nothing changes for you, you'll have extra.
__________________
FIREd date: June 26, 2018 - "This Happy Feeling, Going Round and Round!" (GQ)
jollystomper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 02:21 PM   #113
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Dallas
Posts: 1,150
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it.
I think I can vote and I can write/talk to my congress men/women. Or may be I am wrong.
pjigar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 02:34 PM   #114
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,226
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollystomper View Post
1. Vote
2. Pay attention as proposed alternatives are surfaced, and plan accordingly regarding their potential impact to you.
3. Build a retirement plan that is not totally dependent on current SS projections for you to survive. If you luck out and nothing changes for you, you'll have extra.
Depends what totally dependent means. Our plan does definitely include SS. My DGF is already collecting it. We could take some haircut, but could not do without it completely and live the life we wish to.
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 03:04 PM   #115
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Elyria, OH
Posts: 1,937
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it. OK it is fun to speculate and it does break up our day. But there is not a lot we can do other than get our own houses in order. We are also assuming what we read is actually true about a potential demise, haircut, or whatever. At least based on current speculation we have ~16 years give or take to get our houses in order assuming we (I actually) even make it that far.
My posts are based on the actual proposals submitted, not random news reports. It's speculation as to whether any of these proposals become law, but it's important to know what they're thinking about targeting and how.

Many of us won't have our plans to retire materially affected, whether early or not, regardless of what happens. Yet there are plenty of posts on this forum from people wondering if they have enough to retire immediately if not sooner. Some of those plans could be thrown off-kilter if some of the proposals come to pass. Especially, for those already retired who can't access SS for a number of years yet, it's important to know the possibilities down the road while there may be time to adjust spending, if needed.

I didn't start this topic, but I do believe that it brings an important awareness to the table. It may help in keeping one's house in order.
gwraigty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 08:02 PM   #116
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Mid Town
Posts: 119
I do think the 55+ folks will be immune to any changes unless changes to the spousal portion are "tailored".
augam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-21-2018, 11:02 PM   #117
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Elyria, OH
Posts: 1,937
Quote:
Originally Posted by augam View Post
I do think the 55+ folks will be immune to any changes unless changes to the spousal portion are "tailored".
People want to think that, including me, as I'm 55. However, some proposals to limit the spousal benefit, are detailed at the following link:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/pr...lyMembers.html

The suggested timing of many of the proposals would indeed affect those of us 55+.

From page 7 of this PDF, they might eventually make someone worth more dead than alive:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/BPCCRSPS_20161011.pdf

"4) Compute benefits on a joint-and-survivor annuity basis beginning with retired workers and spouses newly eligible in 2023.

For individuals attaining age 62 in 2023 and later who are married at the time they first become entitled to either a retired worker benefit or an aged spouse benefit (on a retired worker's account), benefits would be reduced while both spouses are alive to allow for increased survivor benefits, such that the expected present value of total benefits would be unchanged on a cohort basis. For those affected, the surviving spouse would receive 75 percent of the decedent’s benefit plus whatever his or her own benefit would be if both individuals in the couple were still alive.

Because survivors of couples affected by this provision would receive higher benefits than under current law, this provision would also reduce the retired worker and aged spouse benefit such that, on a cohort basis, the expected amount of benefits paid from the worker’s account (with all of the plan’s provisions incorporated) would be actuarially equivalent in present value to the expected amount under current law."
gwraigty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 01:13 AM   #118
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,201
Quote:
Originally Posted by scrabbler1 View Post
This is why some form of divided government is the one most likely to pass SS reform (when doing so becomes politically preferable overall to doing nothing, as was the case in the early 1980s). Both parties will have to hold hands and jump off the cliff together so neither side can score political points against the other. Both sides will have to abandon their most extreme reform proposals in order to gain enough support from the other side. Both sides will have to somewhat embrace some of the less extreme proposals from the other side. Difficult? Very much so. Impossible? No.
It seems like neither side has the stomach to do anything substantial these days, so they and their respective bases (voters and talking heads) both just demonize the other side and do nothing of consequence. And if you think Federal SS/Medicare/Medicaid is bad, take a good look at Illinois pension financials...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 05:42 AM   #119
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,360
Quote:
Originally Posted by ShokWaveRider View Post
I am always amazed about topics like this that generate so much banter and speculation, when in reality there is not much we at ER.org can or will do about it. OK it is fun to speculate and it does break up our day. But there is not a lot we can do other than get our own houses in order. We are also assuming what we read is actually true about a potential demise, haircut, or whatever.
The bad news is that there's not much we can do about it.
The good news is that most often there's nothing to do; especially as it relates to social programs, there always seems to be an 11th hour reprieve/fix.
But it does make for an interesting discussion for a few days.

Within this discussion, my so-called 'break even' year is 2034, which as you note, should I be so lucky to still be alive, I'll be thrilled to take a haircut! (and too old to really care)
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-22-2018, 06:12 AM   #120
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
Posts: 7,664
My point was that if we have our own finances in order to cover for any / some shortcomings in SS, any eventual outcome would be moot.

And Yes we can Vote (Obviously). Although writing to our congress person, here in our district in Florida at least, seems to only be responded to with a form letter. We have done that a few times with little or no satisfaction with the response, the last being ACA.
__________________
"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
ShokWaveRider is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Research regarding checklists to reduce hospital errors Martha Health and Early Retirement 11 01-06-2008 12:39 PM
how to reduce the size of attachments simple girl Forum Admin 8 01-27-2007 03:42 PM
REduce burn rate with an RV. A used one? perinova Life after FIRE 83 10-04-2006 11:25 AM
Will the Fed reduce rate? Mach1 FIRE and Money 13 09-01-2006 09:04 AM
Does a State Pension Reduce Social Security? Craig Young Dreamers 4 04-01-2005 08:00 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:09 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.