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View Poll Results: When would you retire?
Lean Fire @ 54 4 2.26%
FIRE @ 55 39 22.03%
Fat FIRE @ 56 76 42.94%
Obese FIRE @ 57 58 32.77%
Voters: 177. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-27-2020, 06:33 PM   #21
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Another factor is the economy. What if we hit a recession within the next couple of years? I’d be more inclined to hang on a little longer and try to ride out the downturn before retirement.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:42 PM   #22
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What are your savings withdrawal rates for each of these?
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:04 PM   #23
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"Reliable" is a euphemism for "Boring"

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Originally Posted by socca View Post
How highly correlated is retirement satisfaction with BTD? Different people answer this question in different ways. For me, the correlation is rather low (although I'm only semi-R), but other folks are wired differently. I didn't vote in the poll because it seems to imply that BTD is the retirement degree of freedom that matters, a viewpoint I don't share. To each their own.
I'm with socca on this. I can't remember many BTD moments in my life that made me any happier. I guess it was cuz most of them were new roofs, replacement HVACs and appliances, etc.

But I'd hold out past "lean FIRE" if possible because I'm a worry wart. I would want the BTD allowance as insurance against some unforeseen circumstances rather than for pulse-pounding discretionary spends.

DW knows I'm not so much "exciting" as "reliable".
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Old 01-27-2020, 10:09 PM   #24
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I said 55 bc I hate my job. But also I was thinking about a sick coworker who probably won't live to see 60. But you never know. And you always leave money on the table somehow.
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Old 01-27-2020, 10:11 PM   #25
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If healthy...I'd go for a long fat FIRE

+1

Fat FIRE was my decision as a balance of health and money that the health would have fun with.
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:20 PM   #26
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I love my kids so I'd go with obese.
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Old 01-28-2020, 05:08 AM   #27
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Mar of 22 on your chart looks good to me.
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Old 01-28-2020, 05:50 AM   #28
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So how does one accumulate $$$ sufficient to jump from base to comfy to fire in 1 year each?
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Old 01-28-2020, 06:50 AM   #29
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This is an interesting thread. I'd be happier with excess, worry-free, things-go-wrong $ on the side in my budget...because sometimes go wrong.
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Old 01-28-2020, 08:29 AM   #30
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So how does one accumulate $$$ sufficient to jump from base to comfy to fire in 1 year each?
A very large salary compared to expenses allows for a very high absolute savings each year. I'll post the chart with the numbers. We save $200,000-$350,000 / year depending on how much stock vests.

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Old 01-28-2020, 08:36 AM   #31
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I voted for 55. I'd rather retire fairly comfortably, with some wiggle room in there, rather than going out on fairly bare-bones retirement. To me, that's worth the extra year of working. And, depending on how well the job situation is, I might even be tempted to push out until 56, if it meant an extra 10% in the annual budget.


Now I'm saying this as a 49 year old, who turns 50 in April. I might feel different in a few years. As the time goes by, each passing year becomes more and more valuable, because you only have so many left.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:26 AM   #32
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I retired at the earliest that I could [knowing that I could support my family].
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:36 AM   #33
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What the underlying % success rate would be important to me, didn’t see that. A 95% success rate wouldn’t be the same answer as something higher.

I’d work as long as you can stand it regardless. You’ll be retired for a LONG time whether you go at 54 or 57. Retired for 30 years or 34 years isn’t a huge difference.

And I’d call obese FIRE 100% BTD, and adjust the others accordingly. But we each decide for ourselves.
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Old 01-28-2020, 10:57 AM   #34
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What the underlying % success rate would be important to me, didn’t see that. A 95% success rate wouldn’t be the same answer as something higher.

I’d work as long as you can stand it regardless. You’ll be retired for a LONG time whether you go at 54 or 57. Retired for 30 years or 34 years isn’t a huge difference.

And I’d call obese FIRE 100% BTD, and adjust the others accordingly. But we each decide for ourselves.
Great question. In each scenario, the base budget is @ 99%. The BTD is VPW to age 80. If we are broke @ 80 it's because we chose to be and we will have to find a way to live off of $107k of COLA pension + SS / year.
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Old 01-28-2020, 11:32 AM   #35
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Obese FIRE if you like the work & are healthy.
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Old 01-28-2020, 11:58 AM   #36
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Having children, if it were only a matter of a year between fat and obese then I would go for obese. I can put up with a lot of crap for an extra year or two, especially when I know that the light at the end of the tunnel is not a train. No way I would go for lean if I knew the timescale involved and there were no other complicating factors.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:31 PM   #37
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Considering how big those jumps are, if I was in a similar situation I could see myself falling into the "One More Year" syndrome! If I'm reading it right, the difference between retiring in 2020, versus 2023, is taking you from around $105K per year to $162K? That's pretty amazing!

My aspirations aren't quite so high. I'm mainly shooting for around $80K per year as my baseline, although I could cut back to a bare bones of around $60K, if I really had to.

FireCalc gives me a 93.9% chance of making it on $80K, if I retire this year. If I push it out 3 years, I have a 100% chance of making it on $80K. But if I want to get a bit extravagant, it gives me a 92.9% chance of making it on $95K per year.

I don't know that I'd want to sacrifice 3 years of my life, just for another $15K per year. But, for $57K I might be tempted! Of course, it would all depend on my health at the time, what else I want to do with my life, and my attitude about work.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:06 PM   #38
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I'm planning to Fat FIRE in September.
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Old 01-28-2020, 06:24 PM   #39
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What are your savings withdrawal rates for each of these?
Good question. I have a COLA pension and SS @ 70. This will cover my base expenses, so I need a bridge between retiring and SS. I also need savings to cover the BTD. So here is how I set it up:

1. 99% success for the base budget. This results in an average WR of 3% @ 54, 3.11% @ 55, 2.6% @ 56 and 1.7% @ 57. This starts out high but then goes to negative WR when SS kicks in.

2. My BTD is via VPW from retirement age to age 80. So that starts at around 6% and goes up according to the VPW spreadsheet.

All funds are in co-mingled in my 60/40 portfolio. I don't set it up as buckets. No real need.
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Old 01-28-2020, 07:10 PM   #40
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I’m just under your age and pulled the trigger last year.

Are you confident you have your expenses right including buying health insurance? Also a recent thread found many of us spend on average $15k per year on repairs and home improvements you may have dismissed as “not happening again”.

After leaving my fin advisor, I am down to 2.5% SWR until SS and a nonCOLA pension kick in.

Are you defining FAT fire as over $100k spend (location dependent if that’s fat) or like $50k over your current spend rate after meeting insurance?
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