Why it Might be Different This Time

[yakers]

It can be something new and untreatable like AIDS or it could be common and simple and just spread faster than it can be contained. In these cases having better medicine might help those with resources.

[samclem]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 Could be. I don't think it would be like the plague, though, which was bacterial. Anything that comes along and wipes out a large percentage of the world population will likely be viral in the age of antibiotics.

Probably viral, not requiring an insect vector, present in a difficult to treat/eradicate animal population (reservoir of disease), easily communicable, high mortality after a fairly lengthy communicable period. Bird flu meets all these factors except the easy communicability criteria, and there's every reason to believe it will acquire this trait with enough time.

[ejman]

Well, if the natural resources of the earth + ingeniuty of its inhabitants can support 10 billion people - problem solved!

If it can't - problem also solved. Mr Darwin's theories will be amply demonstrated. If creationists have something on this that will be demonstrated too...

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brat Biologically, humanity is overdue for an epidemic. Those impacted the greatest will be in the world's slums and just like the Black Plague the well to do will not be spared. I don't think medical science can react fast enough to prevent the contagion once it is under way. It might be the Bird Flu, and if it is the current form of the virus will reduce the World's population by at least 50% (my opinion).

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem Probably viral, not requiring an insect vector, present in a difficult to treat/eradicate animal population (reservoir of disease), easily communicable, high mortality after a fairly lengthy communicable period. Bird flu meets all these factors except the easy communicability criteria, and there's every reason to believe it will acquire this trait with enough time.

Spouse spent most of a year in one of her Reserve billets going to FEMA, state Civil Defense, & military conferences on dealing with pandemic influenza.

Technically H5N1 has already acquired the ability to go from birds to humans, and it's just a matter of time for human-->human transmission.

The book "The Great Influenza" describes many instances where civil & military authorities kept bringing people together. WWI troop movements, city parades and public events, and other quarantine failures allowed plenty of opportunity for the virus to spread.

That lesson has supposedly been learned. Under current emergency planning, the first H5N1 outbreak on American soil will bring national movement pretty much to a halt for two-three weeks while people hunker home with hand sanitizers and facemasks. (The Dow would easily reach 5000-- but the stock markets would be closed.) Hospitals & EMTs would try to treat as many symptoms as they could but unless an effective antiviral vaccine is discovered then 20-somethings are going to have to hope that their immune systems don't get exposed.

As for other epidemics-- look what AIDS is doing to African societies.

[Brat]

SamClem and I are of the same mind.

I am in no way a biologist but from what I have read mortality decreases or is delayed once a disease becomes easily communicable. AIDS, for example, has a delayed onset probably as a defense mechanism of the virus.... if humans died quickly it would be less communicable.

[dex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords That lesson has supposedly been learned. Under current emergency planning, the first H5N1 outbreak on American soil will bring national movement pretty much to a halt for two-three weeks while people hunker home with hand sanitizers and facemasks. (The Dow would easily reach 5000-- but the stock markets would be closed.) Hospitals & EMTs would try to treat as many symptoms as they could but unless an effective antiviral vaccine is discovered then 20-somethings are going to have to hope that their immune systems don't get exposed.

Thanks - That's good to know.
During the early 80s, I looked into survival ism and food stocks.
A simple thing to do is buy 2 cases of all the food you normally eat and then replenish it by 1 case after you have eaten 1 case. This can last quite some time for a single person. You have quite a bit of water in your hot water heater, pipes bottled water,