Will oil price ever come down?

[Whakamole]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notth Actually, no. The most improvement in fuel efficiency and alternative energy came about with the CAFE programs run by the government. Alternative energy programs grew from tax grants to the manufacturers. Where no CAFE limits exist (SUVs primarily), there has been very little effort by the manufacturers to improve fuel economy and buyers have lined up in droves to pay for them. Most people buy hybrids not because gas is expensive but because the buyers want a more environmentally friendly vehicle. Simply because you pay so much more for the vehicle vs a similar gas model that you'd never, ever make up the difference in cheaper gas. Wind also got its big boost from tax friendly programs.

The problem with CAFE is one of unintended consequences.

Say you are an automaker and you've got a large station wagon that gets relatively poor gas mileage. Since it's considered a car, it hurts the overall mileage of your fleet.

What do you do? Turn it into an SUV (light truck.) It gets worse mileage, but it both helps your fleet mileage for both cars (by getting rid of a marginal car) and even trucks (because the smaller SUVs get good mileage for trucks.)

BTW, there certainly are CAFE standards for SUVs. See:
http://www.policyalmanac.org/environ...tandards.shtml



Now, as far as why people are buying hybrids: I disagree. Quite a few people think that oil prices are going to head even higher ("peak oil") and have bought either hybrids or other fuel-efficient alternatives (VW diesels, small compact cars.) For some of them - like the VWs - it doesn't take very much time at all to start saving money. Even for the Prius - if you compare it to the Camry, it takes about (last I checked) seven years to make up the difference. Most of us cheapskates drive cars for seven years


Wind is helped by tax incentives, but it's still one of the more inexpensive sources of alternative energy out there. Even without the tax credit, it can cost as low as 4.5 cents per kWh. See:
http://www.awea.org/faq/cost.html

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cut-Throat Bush made a real blunder by focusing the nation on Iraq and now Social Security" - If he would have focused the nation on solving the energy problem (i.e. developing an alternative energy source) - like we did on developing the Atomic Bomb, or landing a man on the moon, we would have created thousands of jobs, he would have the backing of the nation and would be miles ahead of where were are at currently.

Gosh, Bush has been drilling as many new wilderness areas as he can get his hands on. How many more alternative energy sources do you think he could find?

Oh, you mean alternatives to OIL?

[charlie]

SWR,

My taxable account at PenFed is under a revocable living trust
and it contains a lot less than $100k presently. Eventually it
will have over $100k, however. I need to call PenFed to see
what the total insurance is, but I am not really worried as they
are a very strong financial institution (one of our posters in the
business of credit evaluation checked them out last year ... brewer?)

Anyway being over the insurance limit is a very small concern .....
think about all those marines, special forces, rangers, etc getting
pissed off).

Cheers,

Charlie

[Spanky]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Gosh, Bush has been drilling as many new wilderness areas as he can get his hands on. How many more alternative energy sources do you think he could find? Oh, you mean alternatives to OIL?

Yes, may be "safe' and 'clean' nuclear power.

[Nords]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spanky Yes, may be "safe' and 'clean' nuclear power.

Oxymoronic-- despite the fluidized pebble-bed hyperbole. But in the long run, possibly cheaper.

[moghopper]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nords Gosh, Bush has been drilling as many new wilderness areas as he can get his hands on. How many more alternative energy sources do you think he could find?

When the price gets high enough, people won't care if we have to drill right through the caribou.

I'm still holding out for a car that runs on spotted owls.

[justin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by moghopper When the price gets high enough, people won't care if we have to drill right through the caribou. I'm still holding out for a car that runs on spotted owls.

I may be wrong about this, but I think about 100 years ago, we had cars that were powered by horses. One solution to our nation's energy crisis is cars with more horsepower.

[HFWR]

Quote:

Originally Posted by moghopper When the price gets high enough, people won't care if we have to drill right through the caribou. I'm still holding out for a car that runs on spotted owls.

I wouldn't object to drilling in ANWR is actually had an impact...

Quote:

Most people buy hybrids not because gas is expensive but because the buyers want a more environmentally friendly vehicle. Simply because you pay so much more for the vehicle vs a similar gas model that you'd never, ever make up the difference in cheaper gas.

I get the impression that most people don't do the math, they just think "gas is expensive, I better get me one of those hybrids."

[Whakamole]

Quote:

Originally Posted by justin I may be wrong about this, but I think about 100 years ago, we had cars that were powered by horses. One solution to our nation's energy crisis is cars with more horsepower.

Did you know that back then, people were concerned about horses? Seriously. Too much horse manure, not enough fields to grow food for horses, overcrowding in cities, etc.

[justin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whakamole Did you know that back then, people were concerned about horses? Seriously. Too much horse manure, not enough fields to grow food for horses, overcrowding in cities, etc.

So you have heard of these horsepowered automobiles?

Seriously though, horses produce a lot of emissions. Carbon dioxide from respiration and methane gas from digestive processes. Not to mention solid waste! The manure piles up, and dried manure turns into dust, so you have particulate matter in the air as well. The manure also allows breeding of bacteria and insect carrying bacteria. Also, the feeding and caretaking of the horses must have consumed a lot of resources as well. On the bright side, I don't think the horses produced much NOX.

Good thing we have cars to clean things up.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by TromboneAl I get the impression that most people don't do the math, they just think "gas is expensive, I better get me one of those hybrids."

Recent broad based survey of hybrid buyers shows (survey says......); note more than one selection can be made.

Reasons for buying a hybrid:

89% Less pollution
77% Emit less CO2 that may be changing the environment/global warming
73% Appealing technology
71% Save money on gas

Once purchased, 68% said they liked the technology, style and handling best, with 51% saying mileage was the vehicles best feature. On the not-so-good side, ~8% said their mileage was much lower than they expected, and ~5% said the car was too small and storage space wasnt adequate.

Surveys of auto dealers show that the average hybrid buyer is the traditional 'yuppie' that wants to help the environment. They do get lookie-loos that think they're going to get savings out of a hybrid but when they see the cost premium (even after tax benefits) they usually opt for a less expensive, frequently equally economical, regular model.

When the price premium is gone and the reliability/track record is better established, I'd expect this will change.

[brewer12345]

Don't look now, but oil is down more than two bucks today.

[Calgary_Girl]

Oil will come down but the days of $30/bbl is long gone. $40/bbl may be the new "minimum".

[Whakamole]

Here is the survey that th referred to :

http://www.hybridcars.com/survey.html

It's got a newer survey that lists these reasons for buying a hybrid:
74% Save money on gas
71% Pollute the air less
68% Appealing technology
64% Reduce foreign oil dependency

Higher gas prices have had a definite impact.

I would have bought one when I recently got a new car, except I did the math and figured I could buy a lot of gas with the money I saved. Depends on what you are comparing it to.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

The survey I referred to had a meaningful number of respondents from a broad customer base; the one you noted was a web site survey of an insignificant sample size of a very specific slice of customers.

If you like, I can go back to the rest of the unsupported claims you continue to try to bolster and show real data that says why they're wrong too.

Or would you like to stop trying to 'piss in my morning coffee' now?

[Whakamole]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notth The survey I referred to had a meaningful number of respondents from a broad customer base; the one you noted was a web site survey of an insignificant sample size of a very specific slice of customers. If you like, I can go back to the rest of the unsupported claims you continue to try to bolster and show real data that says why they're wrong too. Or would you like to stop trying to 'piss in my morning coffee' now?

All I did was point to the survey you mentioned, and brought up their own survey.

If you think everything I post is an attack on you, then you really do need to calm down.

[BUM]

How about some reasons NOT to buy a hybrid, while I'm enjoying my (piss-free) morning coffee.

1. High cost of total ownership
2. Replacement batteries overpriced
3. Dealer service and parts only....no aftermarket parts....can't pimp your ride

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see commuters in BOS, NYC, LA forced to use hybrids. I just don't want to be in Podunk when my hybrid's do-hikkey decides to go kerflooie. I'd rather buy one after the first gazillion recalls are over.

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whakamole All I did was point to the survey you mentioned, and brought up their own survey. If you think everything I post is an attack on you, then you really do need to calm down.

All you did was reference a web site that referenced the study I mentioned.

Lets recap this, since you insist.

Cut-throat mentions that of the many ways we spend money, putting it into alternative energy programs would likely have been more beneficial. While one could argue the merits of which things we should or shouldnt have done, the basic point is tough to argue with.

But you did, specifically saying
"Higher energy prices will do more to spur innovation in fuel efficiency and alternative energy sources than any government program.

The reason hybrid cars are selling so well is because of gas prices.
Similarly, the reason that wind energy got a big boost a few years ago was because of high utility prices."

I pointed out that every point is factually incorrect.

In fact, virtually NO effort to increase fuel economy or develop alternative energy sources has taken place without government stimulation of one sort or another, even in the face of skyrocketing energy costs. I provided an example of CAFE laws (the industry, on its own, gave us the pinto and vega back in 1974 in response to the first oil 'crisis', then went back to big cars. Then fought the cafe laws almost every year). Your counter example, when read, fully supports exactly what I said.

Hybrid cars, by every statistically valid survey I can find do not list 'high gas prices' as a cause at all, but I'll let that slide to 'better fuel economy', which usually comes in 3rd or 4th on the list of reasons, rather than the highest. I would suspect that without government tax incentives, that very few people would buy hybrids at all.

Lastly you mentioned wind and I noted that virtually no project based on wind based energy has or would have been put in place without government supported tax programs and incentives. Your further editorializing doesnt provide any information to alter that finding. Although I will point out that wind, at ~50% duty cycle in most areas, and with a cost figure that is far higher than yours because yours does not include energy storage costs and potentially high land costs, isnt really a strong contender for a replacement energy source. In short, there is virtually no correlation whatsoever between wind based programs and higher oil costs.

Hence, your original points are invalid and generally unrelated to the original point cut-throat made, unless of course you're simply trolling or trying to be argumentative, which does appear to be your 'strong' suit. All subsequent discussion is nothing more than distracting rat holing, which is typical of your standard trolling effort.

As far as 'attacks' go, for someone who has a sig 'pissing in ths morning coffee' and who has consistently attacked me for no reason that I can fathom, I think my level of calmness is appropriate.

It does occur to me though that you appear to want attention and have decided to use this approach to get it, and i'm just feeding the troll.

[shiny]

I think many Hybrid users, like organic vegetable buyers, spend more just to feel they are doing something that is within their power to help themselves and the planet even though it costs more money.

Its like that saying: How you spend your money is how you vote on what exists in the world.

I am not so naive, however, to think big changes will be made in our energy situation without some major support from the government. The special interests/oil companies just have too much power right now. (Has anyone seen that movie "The Corporation"?)