Will this forum become extinct

[NW-Bound]

There have always been, and always will be, people who FIRE. Your definition may not be their definition, but the ability to live cheap and an extreme dislike of being controlled by others will always combine to create those who desire to live outside the normal constraints of society.

Indeed. When it is time to pull the plug and I have fulfilled my responsibilities as a parent (launched kids), I will be making it happen on whatever basis my funds allow. If that means champage and caviar every day, great. If it means beans and rice, that will be fine, too.

That's IT! The man in the picture would be the last to worry about health insurance, about funding his HSA, or his Medicare Part B. Health care cost has been the largest worry that holds many of us back.

Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache.

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.

I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.

 

[Midpack]

Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today. Even as we speak, people in 3rd world countries do not even get access to an aspirin pill should they have a headache, and don't tell me that they do not have enough problems for a headache.

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go. Don't hang on. Let's not demand that we will live forever. Let's live in the present, and accept our mortality.

Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?

 

[bbbamI]

Weenies, beans and rice. Hmmm...throw a little bacon in there and I'll be a happy camper......

 

[Coach]

I also think FIRE will live on. I think most of us have worked fairly hard at getting to FIRE, and suspect that people will continue to do so.

I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome.

I also have a sense of accumulation becoming more skewed, so that more people will inherit enough to become FIRE than have in the past. And conversely, inheritance will become less of a factor for more people. I think "middle class" kinds of inheritance will go down.

Coach

 

[RonBoyd]

Good perspective when you think about it...who wants to live forever?

Yeaqh. What was that quote that went something like "I was afraid of dieing and then I was scared I wasn't going to."

 

[Culture]

With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?

Early is a relative term. The people who live below their means will always retire earlier than the proles . Now, admittedly, early may turn into 65 rather than 50.

 

[M Paquette]

But big factors are also the good benefits like pensions and health care we have from our emplyers that younger workers no longer get. So my question is simple. With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?

I get no pension or health care benefits at all. Retiring from a typical Silicon Valley tech job is exactly like quitting, except that you don't start a new job, and the exit interview is easier. FIRE'd at age 55. (I got lucky on stock options and the date moved up about 3-4 years.)

With care, planning, and an early start, FIRE is perfectly feasible for the younger workers. I showed my son, now in his 20s, John Bogles "Little Book of Common Sense Investing", and charts showing how much he'd have is he started saving at age 25, and at age 35. (Hint: You could start at 25, stop at 35, and have roughly what someone starting at 35 would have when you reach age 60, through the wonders of reinvestment and compounding.)

He started socking 10% away at age 22. He'll be fine.

 

[Maurice]

I'm well on my way to FIRE and have no pension or post-employment health care coming my way. (in actual fact, more clarity on the health care front is the one thing that has kept me from pulling the trigger already)


I'd like to think there will be enough of us to keep a forum like this going.

 

[brewer12345]

I am going to make myself a Manhattan now. The Novocaine in my jaw has worn off, to allow me a taste of that whiskey. By the way, I do not use bitters in my Manhattan, and according to the Web, many drinkers do not.

Never heard of bitters in a Manhattan. Usually use good bourbon, sweet vermouth, a couple of cherries and a coule of teaspoons of the sweet liquid that the cherries are packed in. Yummy.

Of course most of the time I just like high quality bourbon neat.

 

[teejayevans]

To quote an old TV ad: They'll do it the old fashion way, they'll
earn it.
TJ

 

[Nords]

Many of us on here can FIRE because we save, LBYM and invest sensibly. But big factors are also the good benefits like pensions and health care we have from our emplyers that younger workers no longer get. So my question is simple. With the death of these benefits will anyone be able to FIRE in the future?

Ben Franklin pulled it off at the age of 42 without pensions or healthcare, and made his portfolio last another four decades. Admittedly he picked up the odd free-lance writing job along with some research contracts. So maybe a better term would be ESR.

I think ER is wildly popular in the last couple years of every bull market, and extinct after the first year of every bear market...

 

[traineeinvestor]

For the reasons given, the number of early retirees in a number of developed countries could be expected to decline: higher taxes, demographics and reduced capacity to impose financial burdens on others (usually future taxpayers and high income earners) will all be contributing factors.

However, globally I would expect the number of people who are able to retire early on the basis of financial independence to increase: high savings rates, lower tax rates, more favourable demographics, lower cost of living and faster growing economies will all make it easier for members of the emerging middle class to achieve financial independence and retire early - if they wish to. The Merrill Lynch Cap Gemini world wealth report which comes out each year shows the number of wealthy in emerging markets going up at quite a rapid rate (although with some volatility).

Tax rates make a big difference. In Hong Kong I have no equivalent of social security, no equivalent to medicare/medicaid (although the public health system is reasonably good) and no pension but I still expect to get there in my mid-late 40s. This is largely because the low tax rate (currently 15% on salary, 16% on net rental income, with no capital gains taxes and no tax on dividends or interest) enables me to save a high proportion of my pre-tax income. If I had to pay taxes at developed economy rates it would working for a lot longer.

 

[CuppaJoe]

...
Let's all say out loud: Screw health care! I am not joking, nor stating this sarcastically. People in the old days had none of the concerns that worry us sick like today....

Let's stop scaring each other about health care, or rather the potential lack of it. We should be able to accept old age illnesses as they come. When it's time to die, just lie down and let go....
I am going to make myself a Manhattan now...

The Manhattan is a good idea but I will put it off until the flu goes away.

Had I done what you suggest I might not be here today, I could have "let go" at age 57, just as my grandfather did. But like a fool I live on to repeatedly thank the medical industry and quibble not about the financial cost.

I'm not gonna start with 'ya on the Novocaine. Be well.

Love your recipe, Brewer.

 

[Midpack]

I am hopeful that health insurance will become less of a FIRE issue with reforms that are currently being contemplated. I suspect that there are a lot of people working just for health insurance, and I'm hopeful that a reliable, predictable alternative to employer health insurance will be one outcome. Coach

I am certain you are right. If some sort of nationalized health care reform is enacted, I fully expect a spike in (early) retirements. IMO a public option will also cause a massive shift toward fully socialized health care in the US - Corporations will find a way to move their employees from their burdensome private insurance to the public option. Interesting times...

 

[crazy connie]

My children have learned some very thrifty ways early in life. One has read "The Millionaire Next Door" and was rather impressed. She is saving into 401k at 20+% of income and is starting out with a couple hundred a month into a Roth and hopes to max it annually. Son is wrapping up education yet and hopes to buy a beat up small home and go the rehab route and roll them a few times.

A big boost for many of our next generation is in what they inherit. Most will be/have been home schooled by us on finance as indicated by conversations we have had. Some will be getting some financial lift as well. Escaping the rat race early will never be the norm, but for many the goal. For many the rat race will be different and less dependant upon the largesse of Corporate America. Some will have success rooted in effort and some in luck.

 

[NW-Bound]

Had I done what you suggest I might not be here today, I could have "let go" at age 57, just as my grandfather did. But like a fool I live on to repeatedly thank the medical industry and quibble not about the financial cost.

Uh oh!

Let me rephrase what I wrote. I would not decline medical care for myself, nor say that we should deny it to people who couldn't afford it. I was making a point that people in the medical profession always know, that people at the end of their life cost a lot of money. And often, the family members if not the patient want to hang on at all costs. This would be fine if it came out of their pockets. But if funding and other resources are limited (what isn't?), then some trade-offs would be needed.

So, I would not say that any person isn't worth a now routine operation like appendicitis for example. I was thinking of the more severe illnesses, where the treatment is expensive and the outcome far less than certain. I often wonder if a person needs more than $500K or $1M to stay alive that the quality of that life would not be severely degraded. Does that money buy anymore than some relative short time of a bedridden life, totally relying on life support systems? I would think I would plead to be let go. I think doctors know when a patient case is hopeless. They walk a very delicate line when breaking the news to the patient and family members. It is easy for them to be accused of rationing healthcare or being gatekeepers.

 

[MuirWannabe]

Some of this may be good old day syndrome. I have faith in America and future Americans will be just fine. Things are not good right now and for now appear to me to be headed in a much worse direction.

But hard times and tough issues have always been around. America will correct course. Productivity will increase. Technology will advance. Wealth and prosperity will return. FIRE will come down to individual responsibility and desires. Success will be there for those who work hard and do the right thing.

Geez. Sounds like I'm running for office. Yuck. But I do believe in these things.

Any BTW...for all the complaints about health care costs. I would not want to be sick anywhere else other than the good old US of A. Best health care around. The cost structure has to change and improve. But the quality of service and choice should remain or what was the point?

 

[calmloki]

Half our crew in the hospital, the med bills alone are going to kill us. ---Clay Morrow, Sons of Anarchy

One of the most engaging soap operas on TV - faithful viewer here. Some very real feeling family/relationship dynamics.

Medical care is an interesting problem - medicare is spending an amazing amount keeping MIL ticking - her clock is running down, but she's still cogent and interested to go out and watch the space shuttle go over - still, could probably keep a thousand or two African children alive on what she costs. OTOH, callously, if the baby Africans were kept alive wouldn't that result in even more load on the global system down the line? My impression is that doctors are committed to giving the most aggressive defence - survival is the sole goal, quality of life is secondary, and cost is not a factor. I haven't had a doctor yet twig to having any idea what a given procedure costs - for that I have to try and pry the info from the counter help. Can understand the reasoning that leads to willful ignorance on their part of cost - allowing cost to be a concern might hamper their defense, maybe remove a weapon from their arsenal. Pretty sure that times are changing, and that the move to involve the patient in the health care process and decisions will have the effect of reducing heroic life sustaining efforts for doctors without making them be the ones to choose life or death.

 

[samclem]

I often wonder if a person needs more than $500K or $1M to stay alive that the quality of that life would not be severely degraded. Does that money buy anymore than some relative short time of a bedridden life, totally relying on life support systems?

It is fine for us to pontificate about these things. And, in retrospect (after the treatment has been done and the suffering/quality of life/quantity of life issues are known) the correct course of action is often clear. But, when we are at the bedside and the test results come back, and the future isn't clear, things are not cut and dried. At that point we're not talking about statistics and probabilities and mean life expectancies--we're talking about a loved one who wants to live another year.

Lots of young folks say they wouldn't want to live the life of a 90 year old. That sentiment is rarer among 89 year olds.

 

[MuirWannabe]

It is fine for us to pontificate about these things. And, in retrospect (after the treatment has been done and the suffering/quality of life/quantity of life issues are known) the correct course of action is often clear. But, when we are at the bedside and the test results come back, and the future isn't clear, things are not cut and dried. At that point we're not talking about statistics and probabilities and mean life expectancies--we're talking about a loved one who wants to live another year.

Lots of young folks say they wouldn't want to live the life of a 90 year old. That sentiment is rarer among 89 year olds.

AMEN. Easy to think others should lay down and die. A bit different when the decision rests close to home. These are choices best left up to the individual and family.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have spent countless hours at the bedside of my father who was bedridden for many months prior to his death. Perhaps I should not bore people here with all the details, about how doctors shook their heads, one after another, and about how our family was all torn up about what to do. That experience has prepared me to make my own decision when my time comes, I hope.

About prolonging life at any cost, I maintain that should be entirely up to the family should they chose to expend their assets to pursue that goal.

 

[calmloki]

...
About prolonging life at any cost, I maintain that should be entirely up to the family should they chose to expend their assets to pursue that goal.

And there's the rub. I don't think anyone minds a person or family spending as much or little as they want on health care. Problem is asking that others spend for that care - like on medicare. Another wrinkle is:

All life is sacred
one life is not more precious than another
if the above is true, then
cost to save a life should not be an issue
and
a person's means should not determine the length of their life.

but -
with limited means saving one life may cost many.

Do we side with Spock?
it is logical: the needs of the many outweigh [the needs of the few]....or the one.

 

[Koolau]

Well, back to the original question for a moment: I'm trying to get my kids started toward ER by funding Roth IRAs for each of them. I will continue to do so as long as I'm financially able. I prefer to give them an inheritance now than after I'm not around to see it help them.

So, whether this forum will continue is perhaps up to us. I'm at least trying to get my kids interested in the concept. They see what LBYM, saving, etc. have done for DW and me. With a little help from me, maybe they'll catch the ER "fever" as well.

Now, back to our discussion of health care, end-of-life decisions, etc.

 

[NW-Bound]

Your mileage will vary, of course. I can only relate to my experiences with relatives or people I know.

Despite modern medical advances, there is only so much doctors can do. I keep having to remind my family that if money can buy cures for all diseases, including old age deterioration, billionaires would all outlive us. I kept repeating that to no avail. They simply could not accept the fact that no money could bring my father back to health. Working part-time, I had free time to spend with him in the hospital, to witness useless testing procedures being performed. All my family cared about was that all sorts of things were performed, whether they actually made sense. I had the logical mind to ask the hospital staff what would a test prove, and if the results were positive, what would they do next? More often than not, the tests were inconclusive, and if the results were positive, they would not do a thing; my father was too weak for any operation. He would die in the OR.

We did not care if the tests made sense, much less how much they cost. Medicare paid for it. But it wasn't just the money, because it caused my father some discomfort needlessly. The doctors knew it was hopeless, but the ones who told the truth were scolded by my family members. Of course it did not help that my father couldn't accept his fate either. In a lucid moment, he said that he simply could not die, that he still had two houses to be sold in exchange for whatever treatment they could give, should Medicare refuse to pay. Loving him as I did, what was for me to say?

That's why I said by observing how people died, I have prepared myself for when my time comes. I have another relative who resigned to the fact that his life was ending. I did not know if he had other complications besides kidney failure, but in the end he refused dialysis so he could die. He saved himself and his family much torment.

Now, back to medical care cost in preparation to FIRE, we have another friend in his early 60s who already retired. Though he does not share his net worth, my estimate is that he has more than $2M. Yet, he lives extremely frugally, a true Uncle Scrooge to the point that he got himself a bad reputation. His reason? He has been single all his life, and without children or any close relative willing to take care of him, he says he must prepare for long-term nursing home care. Good grief! If a man with that kind of money worries himself sick with health care costs, I wonder how people of lesser means would be able to enjoy life.

Back to my original post, my point was that we should not let these uncertainties in life scare us into forgetting to live now. Billionaires cannot buy that much more time, and doctors cannot heal themselves. Of course, some people would go as far as to try to buy some comfort in the afterlife.

There's a lady who's sure
All that glitters is gold
And she's buying a stairway to heaven.​

YouTube - Led Zeppelin-Stairway to Heaven

 

[FIREd]

Hope is an incredibly powerful human belief. As long as there is hope, any hope, we will fight on. Survival is a deeply seated instinct which ensures the continuity of our species. It takes courage to invite death when hope has not completely faded away.

But let's not confuse courage with bravado. It's one thing to say "the heck with prolonging life at any cost" when one is 50 and healthy, and quite another when the doctor has his hand on the plug. Courage can only be measured in the face of certain death.

Many of you seem at peace with your own mortality and that's admirable. I hope that I will have the courage to let go when it's time, but I am just human... I can only pray for courage and dignity in my last hours.