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Withdraw rate confirmation - I think we are good
Old 05-17-2022, 08:16 AM   #1
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Withdraw rate confirmation - I think we are good

I am 62, my wife is 60 and we retired in Oct of 2020. We have been withdrawing at about 4% (actually slightly less at 3.8%) and my elaborate forecasting spreadsheet shows that going forward based on our current assets and assumptions. When we start drawing SS at 70, our withdraw rate will drop to the 1.8% range or so. These numbers are based on our actual spending over the last 19 months, which matches up with the budget we had put together.

Our current AA is about 60/35/5.

Based on this, I think we should be good for the rest of our time here on earth, barring some calamity (nuclear war, etc)?
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Old 05-17-2022, 08:34 AM   #2
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I would concur. Have you checked with FireCalc?

Further considerations:
Lumpy expenditures (which would not have shown up in your last 19 months).
Health care?
Long term care?
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Old 05-17-2022, 08:38 AM   #3
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I would think so, but you can plug your numbers into FIRECalc.com for a better view.

Remember that SS is in the inflation adjusted category, so that helps a lot. You didn't mention pensions, but those typically are not COLA'd.

Does your spending include any future big ticket items. home repairs, car replacements, etc?

-ERD50

(edit - cross -posted with Out-to-Lunch)
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Old 05-17-2022, 08:44 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tominboise View Post
I am 62, my wife is 60 and we retired in Oct of 2020. We have been withdrawing at about 4% (actually slightly less at 3.8%) and my elaborate forecasting spreadsheet shows that going forward based on our current assets and assumptions. When we start drawing SS at 70, our withdraw rate will drop to the 1.8% range or so. These numbers are based on our actual spending over the last 19 months, which matches up with the budget we had put together.

Our current AA is about 60/35/5.

Based on this, I think we should be good for the rest of our time here on earth, barring some calamity (nuclear war, etc)?
I agree and your WR are similar to ours... higher earlier and low later... and I sleep well at night.
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Old 05-17-2022, 09:12 AM   #5
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Congratulations!


It is a wonderful feeling when you find that your plan and projections are working.
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Old 05-17-2022, 09:50 AM   #6
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Firecalc says we are good at 100%. We have an ACA subsidized health care plan and we have a couple of small pensions, like $300-400/month each, that we will start drawing at 65, but I haven't ever included those in our calcs. Long term care we have a lake cabin that we would sell at some point and use the funds if required (hopefully never - live a long full life and die in my sleep some night, after having a ribeye and a beer is my goal).
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Old 05-17-2022, 10:43 AM   #7
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Sobering to see longevity risk alongside SWR financial risk.

Agreed, your financial situation is in great shape barring some calamity.

Live long and prosper.

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
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Old 05-17-2022, 02:29 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by skibum View Post
Sobering to see longevity risk alongside SWR financial risk.

Agreed, your financial situation is in great shape barring some calamity.

Live long and prosper.

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/
Thats a great visualization!
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