Withdrawal rates for 2017, and planned for 2018

[NW-Bound]

The only 2nd home that can be better than the current one for me would be a home on the eastern side of Bainbridge Island, preferably on Rockaway Beach Rd, with a waterfront and a view of the Seattle skyline.

There's no way I can afford one, unless my stash grows again like it did in 2017. That's highly unlikely.

[REWahoo]

Our calendar year withdrawal rates shown as a percentage of our initial portfolio value the day we retired in 2005:

Year 1: 4.8%
Year 2: 9.8%
Year 3: 7.9%
Year 4: 6.1% (SS begins for me)
Year 5: 5.4% (SS begins for DW)
Year 6: 4.2%
Year 7: 3.9%
Year 8: 3.5%
Year 9: 3.7%
Year 10: 4.5%
Year 11: 4.2%
Year 12 (2017): 4.7%
Year 13 (2018): RMD requires 4.3%, and will probably withdraw a bit more

[UtahSkier]

Using portfolio value at the start of the year and actual spending for the year...

2016: 4.0%
2017: 4.1%

For 2018, I am using current portfolio value and the budgeted spending

2018: 3.7 percent.

The significant drop for 2018 is caused by Market performance and having our health insurance premiums go to 0.

[Moemg]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Our calendar year withdrawal rates shown as a percentage of our initial portfolio value the day we retired in 2005: Year 1: 4.8% Year 2: 9.8% Year 3: 7.9% Year 4: 6.1% (SS begins for me) Year 5: 5.4% (SS begins for DW) Year 6: 4.2% Year 7: 3.9% Year 8: 3.5% Year 9: 3.7% Year 10: 4.5% Year 11: 4.2% Year 12 (2017): 4.7% Year 13 (2018): RMD requires 4.3%, and will probably withdraw a bit more

Thanks Rewahoo you gave me the courage to do a 6% withdrawal this year and not freak out .

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moemg Thanks Rewahoo you gave me the courage to do a 6% withdrawal this year and not freak out .

Come on in, the water is fine.

[NW-Bound]

Never went as high as 6% with only 5 years under my belt, but would think an occasional excursion like that shouldn't hurt at all. It's only 2% above that golden rule of 4% WR for crying out loud.

But 6% year in/year out, now that's something else. And even then, it does not matter if you are, ahem, your remaining time is limited.

[W2R]

Hey, if you include my house purchase I went up to 8.4% a couple of years ago! And survived. I think the key is to not do that as a regular habit...

[NW-Bound]

REWahoo fearlessly went as high as 9.8% in his 2nd year of retirement. Anybody can beat that? Here's a man who is not afraid of the fearsome "sequence of returns".

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound The only 2nd home that can be better than the current one for me would be a home on the eastern side of Bainbridge Island, preferably on Rockaway Beach Rd, with a waterfront and a view of the Seattle skyline. There's no way I can afford one, unless my stash grows again like it did in 2017. That's highly unlikely.

Vacation maybe?

[NW-Bound]

I went to Seattle quite often over the years. Even with the RV, I have made two trips there. But it is not the same thing as having a waterfront home, where I could row a canoe out to check on the crab trap, and my wife could watch me from the deck to see if I scored any crab for dinner and get the boiling pot ready.

I gave up on that dream some years ago. Just now, I just checked and the price of homes there went up about the same as the stock market. It's out of sight.

[FreeBear]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Our calendar year withdrawal rates shown as a percentage of our initial portfolio value the day we retired in 2005: Year 1: 4.8% Year 2: 9.8% Year 3: 7.9% Year 4: 6.1% (SS begins for me) Year 5: 5.4% (SS begins for DW) Year 6: 4.2% Year 7: 3.9% Year 8: 3.5% Year 9: 3.7% Year 10: 4.5% Year 11: 4.2% Year 12 (2017): 4.7% Year 13 (2018): RMD requires 4.3%, and will probably withdraw a bit more

Sounds familiar, I feel better now. Looks like you pulled SS early and your RMD is similar to your burn rate anyway. I think we'll be in a similar situation, so I don't worry too much about RMD planning. If the market grants us more $$$, it won't be a bad problem!

Our WR's, based on nest egg at start of FIRE early in 2015, with yearly inflation adjustment :

2016: 4.0% (2nd year of ER-still nervous, still recovering from w*rk)

2017: 4.9% (implants, 2 months worth of vacation-acclimating to ER!)

2018: 4.3% target (same vacation as 2017, but without dental drama)

FB

[DrRoy]

This was our first year of RE (at 58). We knew we were in good shape, and spent rather freely, more than in a typical year when working. I have a pension worth .9% of the initial portfolio, and we spend an additional 1.6%. After market growth, and pulling out the next year's worth of spending cash, the estimated WR for 2018 would only be 1.4%. Guess we need to find something else to splurge on.

[Badger]

Our WR is what ever the RMD is at the time - about $15k at the moment. Next year it will be about $32k when we are both taking RMD. All goes into a MM with Vanguard as we live on SS and a couple of small pensions. We have yet to use any of our savings since we are happy with the life style we have. House, cars, etc. are paid, health insurance is taken care of by Medicare and Tricare, and no debt. We take an occasional trip but prefer hiking and exploring the countryside as opposed to expensive hotels, expensive restaurants, and other expensive entertainment although I am planning a week or two in Iceland this year. My wife has always wanted to go and my new knee should be up to the trip by then.

Cheers!

[davismills]

DW is receiving SS and I'm waiting until 70. My military pension has done us well and we have zero debt.

This year we withdrew .004 of our IRAs. Our first ever withdrawal.

We called it psychological therapy to cure our extreme reluctance to spend the money. I guess we still have miles to go to cure this affliction.

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R Hey, if you include my house purchase I went up to 8.4% a couple of years ago! And survived. I think the key is to not do that as a regular habit...

+1 if I include withdrawals to purchase our winter condo in 2016 we would be at 11.7%... but another view is that the winter condo isn't a withdrawal but just adding another asset class (real estate) and the long run returns are lower cost than if we rented to snowbird and possible appreciation.

[markelp]

What do you all use for the denominator in your withdrawal rate calculations?

Does your "Portfolio" include all invested assets (Brokerage+Retirement Accounts) or just accounts that you actually withdrew from during the year? With ER, a significant portion of our portfolio are in tax advantaged accounts that are inaccessible due to age requirements.

I've calculated our withdraw rate based on transfers from the brokerage account to banking accounts as the numerator, but included all 1/1/17 balances from investment account (brokerage+IRAs+403b) in the denominator.

For fun I tried using Net Worth, but that result just looked goofy since a large part of our NW is in rental property and primary residence.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by markelp What do you all use for the denominator in your withdrawal rate calculations? Does your "Portfolio" include all invested assets...

Yes, all invested assets.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by markelp What do you all use for the denominator in your withdrawal rate calculations? Does your "Portfolio" include all invested assets (Brokerage+Retirement Accounts) or just accounts that you actually withdrew from during the year? With ER, a significant portion of our portfolio are in tax advantaged accounts that are inaccessible due to age requirements. I've calculated our withdraw rate based on transfers from the brokerage account to banking accounts as the numerator, but included all 1/1/17 balances from investment account (brokerage+IRAs+403b) in the denominator. For fun I tried using Net Worth, but that result just looked goofy since a large part of our NW is in rental property and primary residence.

We only withdraw from our investments labeled “retirement assets” that are invested for the long-term and we withdraw a fixed percentage each year based in Dec 31 value. We draw on Jan 2 from the retirement accounts based on Dec 31 value prior year.

A lot of folks here simply compare their year spending to their portfolio or total investable assets. This is a useful safety check even though it’s not the traditional method. I’m sure for many folks as long as they don’t exceed some X%, they feel like they are fine. And I agree - most calculated rates are extremely modest.

[flintnational]

3.2% 2017 actual
3.0% 2018 estimate

The denominator is current year investable assets. In 8 or 9 more years SS and pensions will cover our current budget (inflation adjusted).

Happy New Year! Go Dawgs!

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by markelp What do you all use for the denominator in your withdrawal rate calculations?...

I use "retirement" assets... which includes cash, taxable account investments, tax-deferred tIRAs, tax-free Roth IRAs and HSAs and the CSV of a whole life insurance policy I own that is functionally a bond.

I exclude our local bank accounts that we pay or bills from but those balances are typically negligible... $15k or less and I also exclude homes, cars, boats, etc.