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Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson
Old 04-02-2020, 11:20 PM   #1
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Words of Wisdom William Bernstein_chat w/Ben Carlson

I hightly recomend this pod cast from William Berstein for the current market situation.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...iam-bernstein/
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Old 04-03-2020, 07:12 AM   #2
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Good interview. He quoted JP Morgan on a nasty observation that has some truth: "A bear market is when stocks return to their rightful owners."
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:18 AM   #3
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The only Black Swan is the history you haven't read

Bill is such a treasure
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Old 04-03-2020, 09:56 AM   #4
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Fantastic. I already loved the guy from his books, but his equanimity and humility are both impressive. When I get done reading "The Black Swan" yet again, I think I'll pull "The Investor's Manifesto" off my shelf.

Thanks!
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Old 04-04-2020, 09:59 AM   #5
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I also enjoyed the video. Mind you, Carlson is a lot more "millennial" than I was expecting based on his writing.

Bernstein, as always, raises a lot of good points and cuts through a lot of b.s.
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Old 04-04-2020, 10:11 AM   #6
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That video ought to be mandatory for all the people who are so sure and specific in their posted predictions of the future.
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Old 04-04-2020, 10:19 AM   #7
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This the same Bill Bernstein that stated AFTER the 2007-2009 that his previous advice had been wrong and that a retiree should have 20-25 years of safe cash funded retirement in safe assets BEFORE investing any in stocks, where prior he had stated a 75-25 ratio was acceptable. Wonder what he'll be saying in two years
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Old 04-04-2020, 10:39 AM   #8
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I donated his 'Birth of Plenty' to Katrina. Also read a lot of 'efficient frontier' website and some Boglehead's contributions.

15 Stock Diversification Myth is one of my much debated(in my own mind) favorites.

heh heh heh - Alas Mr Market doesn't give a pitcher of warm spit at all my decades of effort. Full auto since 2006 (Target Retirement 2015) AND NOT LOOKING or TAKING A PEEK once in a while has keep me in ER. Meanwhile the Saint's have won a Superbowl and now the Chiefs. A few good stocks with mad money help keep the male hormones in check during this stay at home period.
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Old 04-04-2020, 10:46 AM   #9
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I have missed Jack Bogle and his common sense interviews and Bernstein helps me with the sense of loss. Is he the "new" Bogle?
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Old 04-04-2020, 10:50 AM   #10
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I have missed Jack Bogle and his common sense interviews and Bernstein helps me with the sense of loss. Is he the "new" Bogle?
Well, his books are meatier.
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Old 04-04-2020, 11:31 AM   #11
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Well, his books are meatier.
You are correct. They send the same message (well similar) using different styles. Bogle is undergrad and Bernstein is MBA level.
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Old 04-05-2020, 01:28 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
This the same Bill Bernstein that stated AFTER the 2007-2009 that his previous advice had been wrong and that a retiree should have 20-25 years of safe cash funded retirement in safe assets BEFORE investing any in stocks, where prior he had stated a 75-25 ratio was acceptable. Wonder what he'll be saying in two years
+1. Dr Bernstein was my favorite investing source, specifically The Four Pillars of Investing. But he did a shocking about face (to me at least) in 2009 after his high NW clients who went berserk selling off during and after the 2008 meltdown, against his advice, and lost their proverbial shirts. Investors who simply stayed the course, like many here, did very well. So I’ve been confused since Bernstein did his about face in 2009. Won’t have a chance to watch the podcast until later, has he changed back?
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Old 04-05-2020, 02:04 PM   #13
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I donated his 'Birth of Plenty' to Katrina. Also read a lot of 'efficient frontier' website and some Boglehead's contributions.
I'll have to re-read Birth of Plenty. Been a long time, but the theme has stuck with me.
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Old 04-05-2020, 03:19 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by vipertom1970 View Post
I hightly recomend this pod cast from William Berstein for the current market situation.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...iam-bernstein/
Good video. Thanks for posting.
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Old 04-05-2020, 04:56 PM   #15
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Great interview, thanks for linking. As for whether Bernstein is the new Bogle, he is the old Bogle and has been around quite a long time. He is 72 years old.
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Old 04-05-2020, 05:29 PM   #16
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Thank you for posting this. He is wise.

William Bernstein's Four Pillars of Investment and The Intelligent Asset Allocator helped me determine an investment plan that led to my ER.
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Old 04-05-2020, 06:24 PM   #17
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I never got the impression in speaking with him at Bogleheads that his view of what a rational investor should do ever changed. I think his change in advice was brought about by his witnessing what his clients (and others) actually did in the last bear market. I have read/listened to all of his books several times and 'The Four Pillars' is the one that set me on my path to FIRE. A very nice guy.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:13 PM   #18
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I first knew of Bernstein in 1999 through an article in Businessweek by the then investment columnist Robert Barker. Barker flew out to Coos Bay to meet Bernstein. This was before Bernstein published any book. I don't remember how Barker heard of Bernstein, but Bernstein already got some reputation virally prior to the interview by Barker (I did not and still do not hang out on any investment forum).

I then forgot all about this, until I came to this forum and heard Bernstein mentioned again, along with his books. I read The Four Pillars, and thought that it was good, but did not find it spectacular, because the info was available elsewhere piecemeal but perhaps not collected in one book.
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Old 04-05-2020, 10:26 PM   #19
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Thanks for the link, vipertom.

Sounds like we’re banking on our Central banks to know what they’re doing.
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Old 04-06-2020, 07:20 AM   #20
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I found additional spoken words of wisdom from William J. Bernstein at the EconLib.org site:
https://www.econlib.org/econtalk-by-...lliamBernstein

The bonus is that there are hundreds of interviews with other individuals posted at the site which many will enjoy.
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