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Worst year ever for the S&P....
11-20-2008, 01:33 PM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Worst year ever for the S&P....
...was 1931.
Until now.
S&P now at 775 and change as I write this. If the S&P 500 finishes below 776 this year, 2008 will overtake 1931 as the worst calendar year for that index.... EVER.
Sleep tight.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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11-20-2008, 01:46 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,645
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We still have 1 month+ to go.
I don't plan to do anything differently, so it doesn't matter to me right now. Ask me in 20 years tho... It could be a whole different story!
Look on the positive side, we are living in history making times!
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11-20-2008, 01:51 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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11-20-2008, 01:53 PM
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#4
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Let's focus on the positive! 1931 may have been the worst year for equities ever, but 1933 was the beat year for equities ever (+54%)! So I am still hoping for a very strong rally in 2009 or 2010!
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11-20-2008, 02:25 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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-48.8% for the year...
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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11-20-2008, 02:34 PM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 649
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Ziggy, I haven't admitted this before, but I too heard the voices in October '07 telling me to go mostly cash/bonds and stay on the side lines for awhile. Perhaps we can get into group therapy
The bottom is starting to look like a bottomless pit!
__________________
"There is no dignity quite so impressive, and no independence quite so important, as living within your means." Calvin Coolidge
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11-20-2008, 02:41 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Let's focus on the positive! 1931 may have been the worst year for equities ever, but 1933 was the beat year for equities ever (+54%)! So I am still hoping for a very strong rally in 2009 or 2010!
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please make room for me on the bleachers next to you.
this may be a housecleaning that is badly needed. just imagine the fat cats who are gonna be a lot thinner, who will be promptly weeded out. i know replacements stand ready to fill in behind them, but at least this generation of wall st crooks will be thinned.
rinse and repeat...
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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11-20-2008, 02:53 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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The good news is that I'm nearly 50% cash and Treasuries now after all this carnage, so I have some dry powder. I should be rebalancing but I can't get myself to grab at the falling knife.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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11-20-2008, 02:59 PM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Let's focus on the positive! 1931 may have been the worst year for equities ever, but 1933 was the beat year for equities ever (+54%)! So I am still hoping for a very strong rally in 2009 or 2010!
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So we are down 48% this year as the worst. Lets say I had $100,000 at the beginning of the year, it would be worth $52,000 now and if we match 1933 for +54% next year I would have $80,080 left. Not much solace in that for me today, that even the best year ever would not help offset the worst year I just endured.
__________________
I'll be done Jan 1, 2015, but who's counting.
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11-20-2008, 05:18 PM
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#10
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyJim
So we are down 48% this year as the worst. Lets say I had $100,000 at the beginning of the year, it would be worth $52,000 now and if we match 1933 for +54% next year I would have $80,080 left. Not much solace in that for me today, that even the best year ever would not help offset the worst year I just endured.
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Well $80,000 sure beats $52,000 doesn't it?
Are you buying in this market? I am and I am able to lower my average cost basis per share (and break even point) quite significantly.
For example, on two of my favorite Vanguard mutual funds:
VWELX: If I had not bought any new shares since the market started tanking last year, this fund would have to go up 58% for me to get all my money back. But because I have bought quite a few new shares lately at very low prices, it now just has to go up 35% for me to erase all my losses.
VWINX: If I had not bought any new shares since the market started tanking last year, this fund would have to go up 28% for me to get all my money back. But with the new shares I bought lately, it just has to go up 13% for me to erase all my losses.
Conclusion: I don't need the market to recover completely to recoup all the money I lost in the past year...
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11-20-2008, 05:24 PM
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#11
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freebird5825
please make room for me on the bleachers next to you.
this may be a housecleaning that is badly needed. just imagine the fat cats who are gonna be a lot thinner, who will be promptly weeded out. i know replacements stand ready to fill in behind them, but at least this generation of wall st crooks will be thinned.
rinse and repeat...
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Plenty of room for you on the bleachers... We have ice cream, Botox and only those showing their toes are admitted...
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11-20-2008, 05:26 PM
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#12
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Well $80,000 sure beats $52,000 doesn't it?
Are you buying in this market? I am and I am able to lower my average cost basis per share (and break even point) quite significantly.
For example, on two of my favorite Vanguard mutual funds:
VWELX: If I had not bought any new shares since the market started tanking last year, this fund would have to go up 58% for me to get all my money back. But because I have bought quite a few new shares lately at very low prices, it now just has to go up 35% for me to erase all my losses.
VWINX: If I had not bought any new shares since the market started tanking last year, this fund would have to go up 28% for me to get all my money back. But with the new shares I bought lately, it just has to go up 13% for me to erase all my losses.
Conclusion: I don't need the market to recover completely to recoup all the money I lost in the past year...
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Excellent post, very germane to our situation (buying with years to go to ER) but not much solace to our ER'ed friends. I can tell you one thing, this market sure makes a case for "buckets" of money. I'd hate to sell after all this carnage just to pay the bills.
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11-20-2008, 05:30 PM
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#13
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
Excellent post, very germane to our situation (buying with years to go to ER) but not much solace to our ER'ed friends.
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Point well taken, sorry ER'ed friends! Though I guess they could always take advantage of the lower prices by rebalancing... I don't know if I would have the guts to do it myself, had I already retired, but the option is available for those brave enough!
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11-20-2008, 05:43 PM
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#14
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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If someone started 70/30 stocks/bonds a year ago as an ER, aren't they about 50/50 now? That would take huevos, especially if you did it in all one chunk.
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11-20-2008, 05:48 PM
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#15
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Quote:
Originally Posted by laurence
If someone started 70/30 stocks/bonds a year ago as an ER, aren't they about 50/50 now? That would take huevos, especially if you did it in all one chunk.
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Yes it would!!! Or you put your money in a balanced fund and they'll do the rebalancing for you, a small chunk at a time, a la Unclemick...
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11-20-2008, 06:10 PM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: San Diego
Posts: 5,267
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Yes it would!!! Or you put your money in a balanced fund and they'll do the rebalancing for you, a small chunk at a time, a la Unclemick...
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Target Retirement 2035 here. Yay for me....
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11-20-2008, 06:12 PM
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#17
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 17,773
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Yeah, those target funds haven't gone down one bit
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11-20-2008, 06:20 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,337
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I'm down from my 60/40 allocation to 45/55. I'm still dollar cost averaging into the S&P with my 401k and SERP. However, the $$$ amount going in is trivial based on my overall assets. I am not going to rebalance because when I set up the 40% fixed it was picked as a minimum amount to have a modest but liveable retirement. Since I'm expecting to be out of w*rk soon (layoff), I'm interested in protecting my cash. I haven't sold anything yet but I plan to take a loss in my after tax account and move into VTI for a month.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
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11-20-2008, 07:53 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Now down 28% for the year. Simply unbelievable. And that's with a 50/50 blend. Now closer to 40/60. I lost more today than yesterday. Oh well, we all have pretty much the same story. No need to go on about it.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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11-20-2008, 09:07 PM
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#20
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Dryer sheet wannabe
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 17
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This is so painful. Please, somebody tell me the bounce will come. This depression talk is freaking me out.
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