Would selling right now be such a poor decision?

[Lsbcal]

Well, I bought during that panic time. And I sold out barely in time last week. Lucky me.

Should I be buying again? Well, I have been selling put, but can still do some more.

Should I give back to the market what it gave me? Blow that dough?

Both the 1962 and 1987 sharp declines tended towards bottoms over 3 months. Not quite a "law of declines" but that would put one out in early May to buy. Perhaps we should wait until articles questioning how low things can go come out in force?

 

[NW-Bound]

Would not go all in (never have), but I like to pick up enough to live on with trading these smaller bounces.

All I need is a modest 2.5%/yr with my short-term trades. That's spending money. The rest of the gain, if there is any, is for the scroogy pleasure of counting.

PS. I try to maintain a certain stock AA. But in an attempt to take advantage of market volatility, I would go up/down my AA by 10% to get extra return.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Yes, are we in that V uptrend off the low too fast? Did we really have a successful retest of the low? Do we need to? What happens if we stall out near the high? And so on. Happy days are here again?

Just bringing up this month old post... retest in progress? Or will we break the Feb lows and move on down ...? 2581 was the low close, 2580 the low. Today we hit 2585 on the day low, closed at 2588.

I bought a bit around 3:55pm as a small bet on a bounce, but only a small bet.

 

[audreyh1]

Looks like the market hit around the 200 day moving average today. Chart for 6 months:



.

I think the S&P500 closed under its 200dma at 2625. Blew right through it.

I get my numbers from the T/A thread over at M*

 

[rayinpenn]

Chart for 6 months:



.

I sold 40% of my equities a couple months back and am feeling better about the decision. I still believe there is lots of room to fall. This charts short duration is a bit misleading.

 

[Lsbcal]

I think the S&P500 closed under its 200dma at 2625. Blew right through it.

I get my numbers from the T/A thread over at M*

Apparently close but no cigar according to this source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ely-watched-200-day-moving-average-2018-03-23

Probably doesn't matter though.

 

[Lsbcal]

I sold 40% of my equities a couple months back and am feeling better about the decision. I still believe there is lots of room to fall. This charts short duration is a bit misleading.

Is this better?

 

[NW-Bound]

Apparently close but no cigar according to this source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...ely-watched-200-day-moving-average-2018-03-23

Probably doesn't matter though.

While we are splitting hair, the above Web page says

The S&P 500 index SPX, -2.10% ended down 55.43 points, or 2.1%, at 2,588.26, barely above its 200-day MA at 2,585.38, according to FactSet data.

The chart I pull up from Yahoo says 200-day MA is 2585.217. Somebody is still wrong.

I usually do not look at these indicators, but your source also says

The S&P 500 last closed below its 200-day MA on Feb. 9, a day after the Dow and S&P 500 fell into correction territory, defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent high.

So, we flirted with danger before.

What happens now? My bet is that we are going to bounce up once more. People were in a panic and did not pay attention to the fact that durable goods order was up nicely in Feb, and the manufacturing sector is growing.

What comes after this bounce is something I don't know. But I will play this bounce. Monday, I will be buying back some semiconductor stocks, the one I sold just the Friday before last (3/16).

 

[SecondCor521]

Not that anyone particularly cares, but I checked my AA last night and put in a transaction to trade 23 basis points of VBTLX for VTSAX to get me back to 90/10.

I expect to continue to do similar trades for a while. Eventually I believe Mr. Depressed Market will become Mr. Happy Market again. At that point I have planned to move towards 100/0 again. This has more to do with optimizing my portfolio towards my goals. It would not be any fundamental shift in my economic outlook, my opinion on the Phillips curve, the Fed, China, technical analysis, or anything like that.

I have not made banana bread lately but have some in the fridge.

I put in another transaction just now for 21 basis points of VBTLX for VTSAX to get me back to 90/10.

I am out of banana bread.

 

[GravitySucks]

I'll admit to a bit of market timing.
I missed rebalancing in January due to traveling so when the S&P got a bit better than 5% back towards the high I pulled the rest of this year's expected spending out of equities and put it into short term bonds.
Sort of fear based, sort of rebalancing. It put me back to 60/40 but .....
Going to ignore the market till the end of the year unless a serious rebalancing opportunity comes around.

 

[justakrusen]

Wow!

Good reminder about the FIREcalc.

But, is it a loss if an investor sells some of his holdings at a huge (and probably unwarranted) profit? My Boeing is up about 100%. I bought it for its dividend, not for its potential capital gain. It wasn't supposed to go that high. Stupid Boeing.

OK, on another thread people are talking about the kinds of cars they "lost" in this market downturn. This is what I lost. The only saving grace is that she never treated me all that well.

That is truely a serious loss. If I lost that and my wife found out.

 

[pb4uski]

I agree that is a seriousloss.... but if I gained that and my wife found out .... I'd probably be a lot poorer.

 

[Chuckanut]

I agree that is a seriousloss.... but if I gained that and my wife found out .... I'd probably be a lot poorer.

Divorce plus a girl-friend who is obviously VERY High Maintenance Ka-Ching!!!.

Find yourself a sleeping bag, tent and a place under a freeway overpass.

 

[GravitySucks]

Divorce plus a girl-friend who is obviously VERY High Maintenance Ka-Ching!!!.

Find yourself a sleeping bag, tent and a place under a freeway overpass.

How is she obviously high maintenance?
The clothing budget looks pretty low in her photo.

 

[redduck]

What if a person who has been buying equities for the last nine years and now, right now decides to sell, let's say, a 1/4 of his equities--would that be such a bad decision? He might not be selling at the low (or if it turns out to be the low, it would be a very, very high low). Let's also say that taxes are not a significant factor.

Getting nervous?

Yep.

Apparently, it's been more than 262 days from the first "Yep" and not much has happened that would cause me to change my reply.

 

[Oz investor]

What if a person who has been buying equities for the last nine years and now, right now decides to sell, let's say, a 1/4 of his equities--would that be such a bad decision? He might not be selling at the low (or if it turns out to be the low, it would be a very, very high low). Let's also say that taxes are not a significant factor.

would that be selective selling or across the board reduction ?

you might decide to sell disappointing stocks ( even if they are in profit ) or take some cash off the table in those stocks already in massive profits

another question is where would you put the recovered money ( bonds , cash deposits , property etc etc )

remember you are still fighting inflation ( even if it is rather tame at the moment )