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Old 10-15-2020, 04:00 PM   #21
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Did you use 30 or 35 or 40 years, as many folks take their retirement out to 95 y.o.
35 years. COLA pension + SS ($108k) cover all planned expenses at that point.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:04 PM   #22
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35 years. COLA pension + SS ($108k) cover all planned expenses at that point.
Hmm tough one.
Many folks on this site who do make use of retirement calculators usually look for a 95% success rate, or sometimes a 100% success rate.
However with a decent discretionary budget, I would personally pull the trigger.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:08 PM   #23
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Will you pay the auto/car when you retire ? That's $820/mo or almost $9,900 a year. $500 in clothes - well, if your not working anymore, you can reduce this by $200, that's another $2,400/year. Gifts - $517/month or $6000+ a year - I think if you retire, people will understand you don't need to give them as much. You can cut $15,000 /year.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:10 PM   #24
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Will you pay the auto/car when you retire ? That's $820/mo or almost $9,900 a year. $500 in clothes - well, if your not working anymore, you can reduce this by $200, that's another $2,400/year. Gifts - $517/month or $6000+ a year - I think if you retire, people will understand you don't need to give them as much. You can cut $15,000 /year.
The car budget is for gas, service and a $35k car every 5 years.

I don't buy clothes. That's my wife.

I think we could chop quite a bit out of that base budget, but that's what I use for planning because that is our current budget.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:34 PM   #25
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Personally, I would wait until I got a 95% success without changing my lifestyle. Getting a PT gig once RIF'ed might help you if needed.

Back in my day 80% was just a "C", 90% was a middle "B" and 95% was just above the bottom end of an "A". Back then if I tried telling my folks that a "C" was just as good as an "A" it wouldn't fly. I guess I'm still stuck in that era financially.

Congratulations on getting financially to where you can be considering RE, possibly even getting there, and having some wiggle room if things go South.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:56 PM   #26
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The car budget is for gas, service and a $35k car every 5 years.

I don't buy clothes. That's my wife.

I think we could chop quite a bit out of that base budget, but that's what I use for planning because that is our current budget.
If you buy a $35K car every 5 years, does that include trade in value of your old car?

I don't think DH and I spend $500 on clothes a year, combined.
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Old 10-15-2020, 04:59 PM   #27
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If you buy a $35K car every 5 years, does that include trade in value of your old car?

I don't think DH and I spend $500 on clothes a year, combined.
Perhaps she will need less than 6k yearly in clothes in retirement, but happy wife happy life.
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Old 10-15-2020, 05:09 PM   #28
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If you buy a $35K car every 5 years, does that include trade in value of your old car?

I don't think DH and I spend $500 on clothes a year, combined.
Net is $30k every 5 years.
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Old 10-15-2020, 05:09 PM   #29
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Perhaps she will need less than 6k yearly in clothes in retirement, but happy wife happy life.
I agree. I haven't spent $500 a year on clothes, let alone every month.
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Old 10-15-2020, 05:22 PM   #30
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As others have noted, only you know where you can trim your budget to increase your odds of success and know what you would be willing and able to do in the face of a substantial multi-year bear market commencing the day after you retire. Some of us are more risk averse than others. So, for example, I held out for 200% (i.e. - double actual spending and still get 100%), but there are those who would tell me I wasted some years when I could have been retired. They are probably right. But I don't ever worry about money.
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Old 10-15-2020, 09:22 PM   #31
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I have not made any effort to go through your numbers. However, it really surprises me to hear you say that a RIF of 12 weeks vs. 26 weeks has a material affect on your probability of success. Really? 5 mos. difference out of an entire working career? Seems surprising to me. I could be wrong (and likely am!), but if that is the case, it seems like you are sailing too close to the wind.
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Old 10-15-2020, 09:24 PM   #32
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We were at that point with our fully hoped for spend when we retired at 57/56 (no pensions, and assuming Zero social, so conservative estimate).

But, we had 50% of our proposed spending for travel. (which has been exceeded so far ). Thus, we figured that we could always slash multi-month international trips if needed.

Sounds like your discretionary is fairly large as well, so you should be good.
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Old 10-15-2020, 10:24 PM   #33
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Yeah, I think you are OK. Maybe take a part time job as they come available if suits you. Otherwise it seems you have plenty of slack to weather slim times.
I agree with this.

Also, depending on your profession, consider some consulting or opening your own business and limit your hours to something you are comfortable with.

I FIRE'd about 2 years ago, but have since taken on some light handyman work about 4-8 hours per week and I enjoy this.
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Old 10-16-2020, 07:52 AM   #34
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I have not made any effort to go through your numbers. However, it really surprises me to hear you say that a RIF of 12 weeks vs. 26 weeks has a material affect on your probability of success. Really? 5 mos. difference out of an entire working career? Seems surprising to me. I could be wrong (and likely am!), but if that is the case, it seems like you are sailing too close to the wind.
$7k / week * 14 weeks = $98k. I re-ran the data and that gets me from 90% to 92%, not 95%.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:18 AM   #35
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Hearing rumors that a RIF might be coming. Talked to my big boss and confirmed. Also discussed packages and being part of the RIF. With a minimum severance of 12 weeks, I can retire with a 90% probability of success (Ps). Most likely severance would be 26 weeks, but who knows for sure. Ps would be 95% with the larger package. Will be 55. Annual budget is $145k all in with $33k of that being purely discretionary blow that dough type spending.

Would you retire @ 90% Ps?
Is the 90% based on $145k spending or on $112k of spending? If 90% is based on $145k, what would it be based on $112k?
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:23 AM   #36
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Is the 90% based on $145k spending or on $112k of spending? If 90% is based on $145k, what would it be based on $112k?
90% is based on $145k. It's well over 100% if I use $112k.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:29 AM   #37
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I have a COLA military pension of $49k. SS @ 70 will be $58k. $108k total @ age 70. I have free healthcare for me and my wife (Tricare) until age 65, then I go on Medicare and get a free supplement from Tricare. Lots of life insurance until age 78. I am 60/40 with 25% international.

I have been hoping I could retire @ 55 but needed a package to do it. Now that that might be possible, I would love to move on. I am a VP of business development in the defense world with a top secret clearance so if I wanted to work, I could easily find another job. I'd rather be a pet sitter and work at Ace Hardware.
My bold, that in itself is a done deal for me. Also sounds like you can find another job at your discretion. Work part-time, consult, contract out your skills. Why mess with stress when you have so many things going for you?
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:31 AM   #38
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90% is based on $145k. It's well over 100% if I use $112k.
So well over 100% based on your "needs" and 90-95% based on "wants", depending on whether your employer offers 12 weeks or 26 weeks... I would jump.

Can the difference between 12 weeks @ 90% and 26 weeks @ 95% be right? I wouldn't think that adding 14 weeks of pay to the nestegg would move the success ratio that much.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:36 AM   #39
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So well over 100% based on your "needs" and 90-95% based on "wants", depending on whether your employer offers 12 weeks or 26 weeks... I would jump.

Can the difference between 12 weeks @ 90% and 26 weeks @ 95% be right? I wouldn't think that adding 14 weeks of pay to the nestegg would move the success ratio that much.
See above post. It only moves it 2%. At this point, knowing what is going on in the company, staying is not an option. The decision will be whether to look for another job, whether full time, part time or consulting.
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Old 10-16-2020, 08:37 AM   #40
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90% is based on $145k. It's well over 100% if I use $112k.
What level of spend gets you to 95%? Are you confident in your budget and that discretionary spending being truly discretionary?

We essentially retired at 90%. I say essentially because we made decisions that would be career/income limiting based on that, but DH continues to consult part time.

We also have a fair amount of discretionary spend in our budget, along with sizable enough assets that we knew we had room to downsize if necessary.

With the market run up, we’re over 95% now and basic expenses are tracking under my initial budget, though we’ve been spending a lot on home projects that will hopefully start slowing down.

At a high level, it seems with your discretionary spend that you’re ok. My only issue would be how realistic is it that you cut some of the discretionary stuff. As others have said, a PT job can give you some extras and be a nice buffer. That’s how we’re thinking about DH’s work.
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