Would you Retire if you weren't sure you could afford to?

[FANOFJESUS]

No kidding.

One of my favorite retirement calculators (https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/) is an excellent sanity check for those worried about running out of money.

It notes that as a male in my 50s I have a 1/3 chance (by age 75) & a 2/3 chance (by age 85)...of being DEAD.

That's what I see in real life. I am not planning to 100

 

[RobbieB]

Me either. Ninety is long enough.

 

[calmloki]

Would you Retire if you weren't sure you could afford to?

No freaking way. I like to eat food and stay warm and covered too much. With $91.30/month coming in from SS after paying for Medicare you might conclude I've been pretty self reliant up till now, vs working for the man.

 

[retire202052]

Dude.....how much money do you need to sit and watch tv when your 85...seriously 67 is already pushing it. Have a goal and figure a way to make it happen....

 

[yclipse]

It's not all or nothing

You seem to believe that your choice is to keep working at a high-stress job or quitting work altogether. There are middle grounds, where you can work less but still have income coming in as long as you can or as you wish.

 

[Navigator]

Faced with similar situations I always asked myself “what is the worst that could happen?” If I could figure out how to avoid a worst case scenario or had an acceptable way to cope with it, I would move forward.

 

[romans2]

I lost my Dad a day before his 65th birthday. He lived a fit and healthy life before becoming ill 2yrs earlier.

That focussed my mind on FIRE, im 52 now and am planning to FIRE in the next 12 months.

I dont want to be a mood hoover but I think to myself, if I was on the same timeline I have 10 healthy years ahead, that keeps me focused.

Hope you make the best decision for you ..

 

[chassis]

@Indiana Randy

What do you make of the suggestions so far? What are your annual income, annual living expenses, assets and liabilities?

 

[RunningBum]

Dude.....how much money do you need to sit and watch tv when your 85...seriously 67 is already pushing it. Have a goal and figure a way to make it happen....

For my mother in memory care, who turns 85 this year, it's about $80K...dude.

 

[RunningBum]

And that doesn't count the $36K for my 87 yr old father.

 

[FANOFJESUS]

For my mother in memory care, who turns 85 this year, it's about $80K...dude.

How long can your parents afford that?

 

[kgtest]

Here's the deal; It's hard to plan for retirement without knowing when you're going to die. I'm 67 and still working a high stress job. If I die at 85, I can retire right now. If I live longer, I'll be living on SSI (unless I latch on to a lady with some wherewithal) Sorry, sounds horrible. My brother is an advocate of deciding when you expire. According to him, I should retire and just plan to expire when I'm 85 and forget about it. Start Living. Crazy post, isn't it? Should I still work another year or two?

Probably could if you adjusted your lifestyle and avoided any serious illness until you just passed in your sleep, maybe...

Also, as people age, what I've seen is some spend less as they get older. Less on luxury, less on food, less on travel, less on the house repairs, just less mobile so fewer activities etc. But that might not always be the case.

I would make a plan to be able to live a few years into SORR without too much sacrifice.

 

[RunningBum]

How long can your parents afford that?

About 4 more years. At which point we'll reevaluate Medicaid options, and if they still aren't good I'll take over to cover what SS doesn't. If she's still alive. They started SS at 62, so it's not that much. I don't think either expected to live this long based on their health and family history then, but this is the longevity insurance case that I think is more important than trying to optimize SS if you don't think you'll make it to breakeven age.

 

[FANOFJESUS]

About 4 more years. At which point we'll reevaluate Medicaid options, and if they still aren't good I'll take over to cover what SS doesn't. If she's still alive. They started SS at 62, so it's not that much. I don't think either expected to live this long based on their health and family history then, but this is the longevity insurance case that I think is more important than trying to optimize SS if you don't think you'll make it to breakeven age.

Wow I no idea it could be that expensive. I heard a guy says if you had under a million in retirement your broke. He was referring to the money you will spend in retirement plus nursing homes. I see what he meant.

 

[Exchme]

Yeah, my dad thought he was going to leave a lot of money in his estate but was diagnosed with Alzheimers so knew he wouldn't be able to manage things on his own. So he set up a trust to pay for my step-mom's living expenses and his care.

Then came the dot.com crash, a decade in the Alzheimer's unit, the trust costs and the 2008 financial crisis nearly wiped him out. We got to see the ugly math of heavy IRA withdrawals where his assets lost money in the market, but he still had to pay really high taxes near the end because the IRA was all that was left to fund all those expenses (+ he had nearly 10% state taxes).

So when folks write about their marginal plans to retire, I cringe - it can all go badly wrong and a cushion will spare your loved ones a lot of burden.

 

[RetiredHappy]

To mitigate expensive long term care cost, buy LTCI while you are still healthy. We both have LTCI which pay substantial amounts and if the costs go higher than that, our assets will kick in to pay the rest. Mine pays $10K a month with an inflation rider, good for 5 years, and the years will stretch out if I do not utilize the maximum per month. My husband's plan currently pays $6K a month and also has an inflation rider and his is good for 7 years, with similar stretching out of the years if max per month is not utilized. Our plans can be utilized for home care and/or community care facilities, i.e. assisted living and nursing homes.

 

[Mo Money]

Retire now and follow your bro's advice. Otherwise, your dying words may be two in number: s i x t y... s e v e n...

 

[Fermion]

I vote retire now. So what if you live past 85, deal with that problem then. It is more likely you will work yourself to death now.

 

[Beststash]

I would retire. IMO, money will be the least of your worries after age 85. You cannot predict the future and as you age it definitely affect some of the best laid plans.

 

[11522914]

I also recommend retiring, particularly if you have no debt and own your home.

I planned on retiring at 60. At 57 my job responsibilities changed and turned from low stress to high stress.

I was very unhappy. A year and a half in I couldn't take it anymore and started thinking this is enormously unhealthy.

Retired at 58 1/2, not quite reaching my goal of 60. Still, had no debt and had 20 years of expense data.

I realize now that it really doesn't take a lot of money for me and DW to be happy.

My plan is to 87 and doesn't include home equity. That is my backup plan.

I wouldn't trade this last 2 1/2 years of retirement for any amount of money. Too many friends/family have died far too young.

 

[teetee]

Yeah, my dad thought he was going to leave a lot of money in his estate but was diagnosed with Alzheimers so knew he wouldn't be able to manage things on his own. So he set up a trust to pay for my step-mom's living expenses and his care.



Then came the dot.com crash, a decade in the Alzheimer's unit, the trust costs and the 2008 financial crisis nearly wiped him out. We got to see the ugly math of heavy IRA withdrawals where his assets lost money in the market, but he still had to pay really high taxes near the end because the IRA was all that was left to fund all those expenses (+ he had nearly 10% state taxes).



So when folks write about their marginal plans to retire, I cringe - it can all go badly wrong and a cushion will spare your loved ones a lot of burden.

That is why my 4mil idea in that thread about if $1mil is still enough got so much hate. Many disagree we need that much, but they never thought about financial risks or health care expense.

Life happens. Don't wait until after retirement then feel regret that we didn't save enough.

 

[ncbill]

That is why my 4mil idea in that thread about if $1mil is still enough got so much hate. Many disagree we need that much, but they never thought about financial risks or health care expense.

Life happens. Don't wait until after retirement then feel regret that we didn't save enough.

Sure they did...they decided to spend that measly $1 million & then let taxpayers cover their LTC via Medicaid if needed.

Nursing homes might prefer to have only private-pay patients (here around $300/day) but they'll still happily take Medicaid patients (here around $200/day)

 

[teetee]

Sure they did...they decided to spend that measly $1 million & then let taxpayers cover their LTC via Medicaid if needed.



Nursing homes might prefer to have only private-pay patients (here around $300/day) but they'll still happily take Medicaid patients (here around $200/day)

That is just the long term care and medicaid part. They don't cover everything. And if you are plan to live more than 10 years after retirement, better make sure the portfolio won't erode away from market downturns or large unplanned / emergency spending because both reasons can dramatically reduce the number of years you can rely on the nest egg.

That $1m estimate is so 1950.

 

[brett]

It would depend entirely on what lifestyle and spend decisions went into my original estimates. And how much room for error, inflation, investment returns were built into that model.

 

[ncbill]

That is just the long term care and medicaid part. They don't cover everything. And if you are plan to live more than 10 years after retirement, better make sure the portfolio won't erode away from market downturns or large unplanned / emergency spending because both reasons can dramatically reduce the number of years you can rely on the nest egg.

That $1m estimate is so 1950.

Portfolio value rises and ebbs, but historically a balanced portfolio still lasts 30 years with a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate...even if it's only a measly million bucks.

I see no problem retiring on the above plus future SS benefits...current average for the latter is close to $20k/year.

What "unplanned/emergency spending" is going to impact the survivability of the above portfolio that can't actually be planned for or insured against?