NameRedacted
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2016
- Messages
- 236
Apologies if this has been discussed ad-nauseum already.
Just 3 weeks left now and I've been thinking a lot more carefully about my withdrawal strategy. The initial plan was to withdraw around 4.5-5% until SS kicks in and then reduce that to less than 4%. However, with the recent market rise and the fact that I've diversified to about 30% bonds and cash from 100% stocks I think I can get away with a 4% withdrawal rate now and still have the income I was expecting.
I've never really liked the idea of drawing the same fixed amount adjusted for inflation every year. Nor do I like the idea of a fixed percentage of the portfolio one a year - so I decided to create a customized strategy that I'm more comfortable with. It's likely that variations of this have already been proposed.
It's designed for a 40 year retirement. Here it is:
I'm planning to keep about 1 year's expenses in a savings account at Ally bank and switch money from there as needed to checking to pay ongoing bills and expenses.
On the first of each month I'm planning to withdraw 0.33% (this will change - see below) of my total portfolio value and transfer it to my Ally account. This will consist of accumulated dividends paid in the previous month plus I plan to sell sufficient stocks or bonds to reach the 0.33% value. The decision as to which stocks or bonds to sell will likely depend upon what is most tax efficient.
However, to prevent sudden large jumps or declines in income, I'm going to limit the monthly increase or decrease to 1%. So for example, if the portfolio goes down 1.5%, I'll limit the decrease to 1%. If the next month it goes down another 0.4% then the decrease will be 0.9% (0.5% carried over from the previous month + 0.4% this month). I like this idea because it means I can confidently predict how much money I'll have to spend well into the future. For example:
Jan $x
Feb $x +- 1%
Mar $x +- 2%
Apr $x +- 3%
Plus it's reactive to market conditions - it just smooths out some of the volatility.
It would limit the increase/decrease in spending per year to about 12%. I looked at what I expect is the worst case scenario where the market goes down 50% and stays down for a while. With my current asset allocation of 70% stocks I expect that would result in my portfolio falling around 35%. With this strategy it would take almost three years for my income to decline by that amount. That should give me plenty of time to think about getting a part time job and/or drastically cutting expenses.
That leads in to my second idea. I plan to carefully monitor the amount in my Ally account and if it reaches a level of more than $10,000 greater than the starting value, I'll skip a month's withdrawal - this is an expection to the 1% rule. This would happen if I start to cut expenses significantly or if I get income from other sources (such as a part-time job).
On the other hand if the market rises significantly, it may take a while for my 'income' to catch up but then again that's probably not a bad thing. I'd just be banking money that I should eventually get to spend anyway if the rise is not just a temporary blip, and if it is just a blip it's probably a good thing I didn't spend it.
Finally I wanted the strategy to take account of the fact that as I age the length of time needed for the strategy to work will decrease so I want to slowly increase the base 4% draw every month. For example:
Month 1 0.3300%
Month 2 0.3305%
Month 3 0.3310%
Reaching about 7% annually after 40 years. I'm not sure if this is such a great idea though.
In month 1 I'd be drawing .33% which is about 3.96%
After 10 years the withdrawal rate would have increased to 4.68%
After 20 years it would be 5.4%
After 30 years - 6.12%
After 40 years - 6.84%
This may be too rapid a rise. I expect that it would be more appropriate to have a shallow increase at the start of the 40 year period and a steeper one later.
Anyway, as always comments would be appreciated.
Just 3 weeks left now and I've been thinking a lot more carefully about my withdrawal strategy. The initial plan was to withdraw around 4.5-5% until SS kicks in and then reduce that to less than 4%. However, with the recent market rise and the fact that I've diversified to about 30% bonds and cash from 100% stocks I think I can get away with a 4% withdrawal rate now and still have the income I was expecting.
I've never really liked the idea of drawing the same fixed amount adjusted for inflation every year. Nor do I like the idea of a fixed percentage of the portfolio one a year - so I decided to create a customized strategy that I'm more comfortable with. It's likely that variations of this have already been proposed.
It's designed for a 40 year retirement. Here it is:
I'm planning to keep about 1 year's expenses in a savings account at Ally bank and switch money from there as needed to checking to pay ongoing bills and expenses.
On the first of each month I'm planning to withdraw 0.33% (this will change - see below) of my total portfolio value and transfer it to my Ally account. This will consist of accumulated dividends paid in the previous month plus I plan to sell sufficient stocks or bonds to reach the 0.33% value. The decision as to which stocks or bonds to sell will likely depend upon what is most tax efficient.
However, to prevent sudden large jumps or declines in income, I'm going to limit the monthly increase or decrease to 1%. So for example, if the portfolio goes down 1.5%, I'll limit the decrease to 1%. If the next month it goes down another 0.4% then the decrease will be 0.9% (0.5% carried over from the previous month + 0.4% this month). I like this idea because it means I can confidently predict how much money I'll have to spend well into the future. For example:
Jan $x
Feb $x +- 1%
Mar $x +- 2%
Apr $x +- 3%
Plus it's reactive to market conditions - it just smooths out some of the volatility.
It would limit the increase/decrease in spending per year to about 12%. I looked at what I expect is the worst case scenario where the market goes down 50% and stays down for a while. With my current asset allocation of 70% stocks I expect that would result in my portfolio falling around 35%. With this strategy it would take almost three years for my income to decline by that amount. That should give me plenty of time to think about getting a part time job and/or drastically cutting expenses.
That leads in to my second idea. I plan to carefully monitor the amount in my Ally account and if it reaches a level of more than $10,000 greater than the starting value, I'll skip a month's withdrawal - this is an expection to the 1% rule. This would happen if I start to cut expenses significantly or if I get income from other sources (such as a part-time job).
On the other hand if the market rises significantly, it may take a while for my 'income' to catch up but then again that's probably not a bad thing. I'd just be banking money that I should eventually get to spend anyway if the rise is not just a temporary blip, and if it is just a blip it's probably a good thing I didn't spend it.
Finally I wanted the strategy to take account of the fact that as I age the length of time needed for the strategy to work will decrease so I want to slowly increase the base 4% draw every month. For example:
Month 1 0.3300%
Month 2 0.3305%
Month 3 0.3310%
Reaching about 7% annually after 40 years. I'm not sure if this is such a great idea though.
In month 1 I'd be drawing .33% which is about 3.96%
After 10 years the withdrawal rate would have increased to 4.68%
After 20 years it would be 5.4%
After 30 years - 6.12%
After 40 years - 6.84%
This may be too rapid a rise. I expect that it would be more appropriate to have a shallow increase at the start of the 40 year period and a steeper one later.
Anyway, as always comments would be appreciated.