You have to believe in Success

[Andre1969]

Ah, another point for the youngster ERs to ponder is what SS they will get if they stop working so early. Not only that they have to wait a long time, but when they get there they may not get much.

I just stopped work recently so I think the cut will not be severe. Still, as I live fine on 3.5%WR and do not think of increasing it when SS is accounted for, I am in no hurry to figure that out. I will wait until the next market downturn.

I ran two sets of numbers with FireCalc, one assuming full SS benefits and one assuming no benefit at all (and no pension either, although my pension is only $349.21/mo, non-COLA'ed, and doesn't kick in until age 65/2035). Interestingly, taking SS/Pension benfits away only delays the various scenarios by about 2-3 years. For instance, with SS/Pension, FireCalc gives me a 96.6% chance of success if I retire in 2015. But with no SS/Pension, I get a 94.2% chance if I wait until 2017, and a 98.8% chance if I wait until 2018.

Even if I wanted to live off of $100K per year, I'd have to wait until 2029, and age 59, if I wanted a 96.6% chance of success, with SS/Pension. Without, I only have to hold out to age 61, which gives me a 95.3% chance. I like to see at least a 95% chance of success, but that 94.2% above, might be close enough!

 

[rodi]

Now, I just used the quick calculator on the SSA website, so it might not be *too* accurate. And I don't know how to input, say, dropping out of the workforce at 44 but delaying taking it until 70.

It's pretty easy - but counterintuitive, to get the results you want.

Go to the estimator - run the normal estimate (which assumes you work until you start collecting.

Click on the "Add a New Estimate" button.

Put in the age you want to start collecting SS for the retire age. (In other words spoof the real retirement age to be the age SS kicks in)
Put in "0" for the income you'll make between now and then. (Again - completion of the spoof because you're actually retired now.)

For me, at age 52, collecting at 62 only provides a $200/month difference between retiring now and working till 62. Not worth working just for SS, IMO.

 

[NW-Bound]

For me, at age 52, collecting at 62 only provides a $200/month difference between retiring now and working till 62. Not worth working just for SS, IMO.

Thanks. Saves me the trouble to do the exercise for myself. And I stopped working at 55.

 

[Andre1969]

Thanks, Rodi, but dumb question here...where is the "Add a New Estimate" button? I can't find it. Unless I'm using the wrong calculator? I looked at the quick calculator, and then the calculator where you enter all your income from past years.

 

[rodi]

Thanks, Rodi, but dumb question here...where is the "Add a New Estimate" button? I can't find it. Unless I'm using the wrong calculator? I looked at the quick calculator, and then the calculator where you enter all your income from past years.

Retirement Estimator
Click on the estimate your retirement benefits button.
Enter all your personal data - and it should give you the initial estimate.
On that page - you can then click the "Add New Estimate" button.

 

[Andre1969]

Cool, thanks Rodi! I was able to get it to work. And here's the estimates it gave me...
If I keep working I'll get:
$1506/mo if I work til 62 and then start collecting
$2175/mo if I work til 67
$2708/mo if I work til 70.

However, if I quit now, at the age of 44, I'll get:
$1047/mo if I start collecting at 62
$1496/mo at 67
$1855/mo at 70

My current plan, subject to change, is to work until 50 and then collect at 62. That gives me about $1271/mo.

Needless to say, I'm not going to keep w*rking just for the increased SS benefits!

 

[nash031]

Bear markets are wonderful for accumulators. Of course one needs to have guts to buy, buy, buy...

On the other hand, full retirees are in the decumulation phase, and the only thing they can do is to rebalance. There's no new cash to buy anything. It's scarier!

So, at some point, if you are successful in reaching that ER stage, you will have a chance to experience those gut-wrenching market movements. Heh heh heh...

I'm hoping for another bear sometime between now and 2019. For one, it'll make me more confident that 2020 and the immediate years beyond will be more bullish. For another, because I'm still accumulating and want the value. And finally because I'd rather know I have enough after surviving another big bear beatdown than wondering if I have enough after 10 bullish years with a bear sure to come!