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View Poll Results: What is your prediction for the SP500 gain/loss in 2020?
gain more then 20% 7 4.61%
gain 15 to 20% 10 6.58%
gain 10 to 15% 22 14.47%
gain 5 to 10% 52 34.21%
gain 0 to 5% 27 17.76%
loss 0 to -5% 7 4.61%
loss -5 to -10% 8 5.26%
loss -10 to -15% 9 5.92%
loss -15 to -20% 4 2.63%
loss worse then -20% 6 3.95%
Voters: 152. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 01-02-2020, 10:16 AM   #61
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The poll is now closed and we had a great turnout ... 152 votes!

This is a pessimistic crowd here. Fully 75% of the respondents thought the SP500 in 2020 will be below the 11% historical return average.

Trying to be an optimist, I think this degree of pessimism indicates we are not in the "irrational exuberance" phase. Maybe more good surprises for 2020? I hope so.
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Old 01-02-2020, 10:28 AM   #62
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I think 2020 is not going to be a good year for the SP500.

I didn't vote since the poll is already closed, but would have picked down worse than -20%.
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Old 01-02-2020, 09:00 PM   #63
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I voted for a loss worse than 20% because so many stock valuation metrics are already high relative to past values. I felt that made it vulnerable to significant events portending bad economic repercussions. I'm not sure if the killing of Qassem Soleimani is the start of a series of such events, but unexpected events like that seem to be inevitable given enough time.
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Old 01-02-2020, 10:26 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.

If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.
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Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
The poll is now closed and we had a great turnout ... 152 votes!

This is a pessimistic crowd here. Fully 75% of the respondents thought the SP500 in 2020 will be below the 11% historical return average.

Trying to be an optimist, I think this degree of pessimism indicates we are not in the "irrational exuberance" phase. Maybe more good surprises for 2020? I hope so.
They say that when it comes to market movement, the average man is usually wrong. And as stated, I do not mind to be wrong on this matter.

There is still some hope, the way the poll result turns out. Heh heh heh...

Expect the worst, but invest for the best? Well, not quite that way, but I am still 57% in stocks, after lowering the AA from 75+%.

At 2020 year end, please remind us of this poll so we can recall how we were thinking at this moment.
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Old 01-22-2021, 02:44 PM   #65
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3,756 / 15.76% add in another 2%if you count reinvested dividends.
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Old 01-22-2021, 03:44 PM   #66
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I had forgotten all about this poll. The world has changed so much in one year! Nice to see that we had a good year. I goofed up some in my decisions but still had an up year.

Thanks for posting and reminding us of this poll GravitySucks.
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