Your 2020 prediction for SP500

[Lsbcal]

What will be the gain or loss in the SP500 (including dividends) for 2020?

This poll closes in 10 days so around January 2 2020.

Hint: the average annual gain for the SP500 (plus dividends) since 1951 has been about 11%.

 

[W2R]

I put down "gain of more than 20%", being the eternal optimist.

Really, if any of us had any way of knowing then we'd have it made.

 

[Lsbcal]

I put down "gain of more than 20%", being the eternal optimist.

Really, if any of us had any way of knowing then we'd have it made.

Since you have it made (from previous posts) I infer that you know what you are up to. So I'm planning on >20% and in me being wrong on my poll vote.

 

[marko]

I voted 5% to 10% up.

I think this year was a bounce-back from the needless downdraft last Christmas Eve. Things do seem to be tapping the brakes just a bit however.

So: A good year ahead but not as good as this year.

 

[audreyh1]

I’m tired of predicting anything.

 

[HI Bill]

My vote wasn't a prediction, it was a hope.

 

[Dtail]

Voted 5-10%, even though IIRC there actually have not been many years in this range.
Only 2+ years retired, so this would still be good enough to push SORR for another year.

 

[Car-Guy]

Let's face it.... It all depends on how things are looking through the year for the November 3rd 2020 election. Just about everything else is secondary.


But as it is now, I'd guess 15+%

 

[38Chevy454]

With being an election year, and the China trade deal yet to be made, and still getting benefits from the tax law changes, there are incentives for the markets to stay on the increase. I predict it will stay on a roll and be 15-20%.

 

[dtbach]

I think we are in for some pull backs, perhaps 15 to 20%

 

[teejayevans]

With presidental elections coming up, that causes a flat/down market in the year before :
2007, 2011, 2015 ... but 2019 has broken that trend. So much for history being an indicator of future results?

 

[Lsbcal]

I’m tired of predicting anything.

I predict you will get your mojo back.

 

[OldShooter]

I'll go with the apocryphal JP Morgan prediction: "It will fluctuate."

 

[HFWR]

+/- 500

 

[FIREarly]

The Law of Attraction: it is going to be amazing!!

A great time to buy in the market is when it is rising.
A great time to buy in the market is when it is declining (treat it like a garage sale; you are getting a discount on, what you believe to be, great stocks)

End result, if you have time to keep your money in the market (ideal) and have money to invest then invest!

Over TIME, it rises.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.

If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.

 

[dtbach]

I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.

If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.

Oh but we will!

 

[NW-Bound]

^^^ You should blame the person making the "Wh***" proclamation.

 

[Badger]

I'm prepared for a major buying spree.



Cheers!

 

[target2019]

-5 to -10%. I see it in the stars...things will happen.

I guess that means every other choice will happen.

 

[LRDave]

-10% to -15%. A good year for Roth conversions!

 

[Dtail]

So far the positive responses far outweigh the negative responses.
Interesting result considering the general conservatism on this board.

 

[jfn111]

I guessed 0-5%. I think it's going to be a choppy year as we go into the election.

 

[target2019]

For some readers, the brain is thinking this picture:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings

While the rest of readers are more pessimistic:
https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings.

 

[PatrickA5]

4.79%, give or take.