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View Poll Results: What is your prediction for the SP500 gain/loss in 2020?
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gain more then 20%
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7 |
4.61% |
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gain 15 to 20%
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10 |
6.58% |
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gain 10 to 15%
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22 |
14.47% |
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gain 5 to 10%
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52 |
34.21% |
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gain 0 to 5%
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27 |
17.76% |
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loss 0 to -5%
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7 |
4.61% |
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loss -5 to -10%
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8 |
5.26% |
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loss -10 to -15%
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9 |
5.92% |
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loss -15 to -20%
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4 |
2.63% |
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loss worse then -20%
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6 |
3.95% |
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Your 2020 prediction for SP500
12-23-2019, 11:01 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 7,289
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Your 2020 prediction for SP500
What will be the gain or loss in the SP500 (including dividends) for 2020?
This poll closes in 10 days so around January 2 2020.
Hint: the average annual gain for the SP500 (plus dividends) since 1951 has been about 11%.
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12-23-2019, 11:12 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 44,560
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I put down "gain of more than 20%", being the eternal optimist. 
Really, if any of us had any way of knowing then we'd have it made.
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12-23-2019, 11:15 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 7,289
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R
I put down "gain of more than 20%", being the eternal optimist.
Really, if any of us had any way of knowing then we'd have it made. |
Since you have it made (from previous posts) I infer that you know what you are up to. So I'm planning on >20% and in me being wrong on my poll vote. 
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12-23-2019, 11:22 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 6,231
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I voted 5% to 10% up.
I think this year was a bounce-back from the needless downdraft last Christmas Eve. Things do seem to be tapping the brakes just a bit however.
So: A good year ahead but not as good as this year.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-23-2019, 12:38 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 28,376
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I’m tired of predicting anything.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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12-23-2019, 12:41 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,155
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My vote wasn't a prediction, it was a hope.
__________________
Balance in everything.
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12-23-2019, 12:42 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 7,612
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Voted 5-10%, even though IIRC there actually have not been many years in this range.
Only 2+ years retired, so this would still be good enough to push SORR for another year.
__________________
TGIM
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12-23-2019, 02:04 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Citizen of Texas
Posts: 5,503
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Let's face it.... It all depends on how things are looking through the year for the November 3rd 2020 election. Just about everything else is secondary.
But as it is now, I'd guess 15+%
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12-23-2019, 02:29 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Cincinnati, OH
Posts: 2,819
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With being an election year, and the China trade deal yet to be made, and still getting benefits from the tax law changes, there are incentives for the markets to stay on the increase. I predict it will stay on a roll and be 15-20%.
__________________
The advice we're giving you is invaluable, that's why it's free
Experience is a good teacher, but the tuition can get expensive real fast
Semi-Retired 7/1/16: working part-time (60%) for now [4/24/17 changed to 80%]
Retired Aug 2, 2017; age 53
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12-23-2019, 02:45 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,296
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I think we are in for some pull backs, perhaps 15 to 20%
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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12-23-2019, 03:27 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,527
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With presidental elections coming up, that causes a flat/down market in the year before :
2007, 2011, 2015 ... but 2019 has broken that trend. So much for history being an indicator of future results?
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12-23-2019, 03:31 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 7,289
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Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
I’m tired of predicting anything.
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I predict you will get your mojo back.
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12-23-2019, 03:39 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 6,182
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I'll go with the apocryphal JP Morgan prediction: "It will fluctuate."
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12-23-2019, 05:24 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 14,183
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+/- 500
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire
...not doing anything of true substance...
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12-23-2019, 05:36 PM
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#15
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 150
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The Law of Attraction: it is going to be amazing!!
A great time to buy in the market is when it is rising.
A great time to buy in the market is when it is declining (treat it like a garage sale; you are getting a discount on, what you believe to be, great stocks)
End result, if you have time to keep your money in the market (ideal) and have money to invest then invest!
Over TIME, it rises.
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12-23-2019, 05:42 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,387
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I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.
If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-23-2019, 06:27 PM
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#17
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound
I just chose "worse than -20%", in the hope that I will be wrong as usual.
If I turn out to be right, don't blame me.
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Oh but we will!
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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12-23-2019, 09:04 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 28,387
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^^^ You should blame the person making the "Wh***" proclamation.
__________________
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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12-24-2019, 05:55 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,916
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I'm prepared for a major buying spree.
Cheers!
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12-24-2019, 06:00 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Stuck in the mud somewhere in the NJ swamp
Posts: 6,942
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-5 to -10%. I see it in the stars...things will happen.
I guess that means every other choice will happen.
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