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Old 01-07-2022, 06:32 PM   #101
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4200. Think a correction is due.
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Old 01-08-2022, 09:31 PM   #102
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1,000,000
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Old 01-09-2022, 04:27 AM   #103
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I predict that during the year it drops below 4000.

By the end of 2022 it bounced back into 4100 to 4200.
Inflation will put pressure on that market.
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Old 01-09-2022, 09:07 AM   #104
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Well, the average so far is 5047.59 (5.9% increase) and the median is 5147 (8.0%). I'll get another cup of coffee now...
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Old 01-09-2022, 09:25 AM   #105
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Well, the average so far is 5047.59 (5.9% increase) and the median is 5147 (8.0%). I'll get another cup of coffee now...
Did you factor in the 1,000,000 above? That should help things out.
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Old 01-09-2022, 12:01 PM   #106
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Did you factor in the 1,000,000 above? That should help things out.
Of course I plugged it in just to see (407.4% increase). Oddly enough it didn't change the median at all

I did see what prediction I would have to make to match last year's return, but I doubt it'll go to 55,000.
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Old 01-09-2022, 07:46 PM   #107
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4500
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Old 01-09-2022, 07:54 PM   #108
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Old 01-09-2022, 07:55 PM   #109
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Figured I would reply with my reasoning like others have. Here's how I see the year playing out: Omicron peaks in mid-Jan, Fed completes taper in March, Fed raises interest rate to .25% in June, new COVID variant emerges in July / August, Fed doesn't raise interest rate in the fall, Fed raises interest rate to .5% in December. Gains will be strong in the market until the first rate hike in June, markets sells off after that and volatility rises with new variant and the mid-term election cycle. November and December are VERY strong months in the market to end the year. Unemployment falls to 3.5% by year end, GDP growth on the year is 4.5% and 10 year treasury ends the year at 2.25%.

Quite optimistic on real GDP growth. I'll guess 1-2%

I think we'll be lucky with 2-3% growth this year. I'm also betting inflation is > 5% in 2022, possibly 8%+. FR and USG actions usually take a year+ to really show up + combined with the never ended covid variant = very high inflation.
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Old 01-09-2022, 07:58 PM   #110
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For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."

I'm not confident as the standard deviation on what can happen is - like the last two years- much higher than normal. I'm 48% RRE, 35% equities, 7% cash, 7% bonds, 3% gold/silver/digital currency. I am most confident on RRE since I think high inflation is > 75% chance this year.
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Old 01-09-2022, 08:30 PM   #111
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I believe the market will be higher 5 years from now.
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Old 01-11-2022, 01:00 PM   #112
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I'm not confident as the standard deviation on what can happen is - like the last two years- much higher than normal. I'm 48% RRE, 35% equities, 7% cash, 7% bonds, 3% gold/silver/digital currency. I am most confident on RRE since I think high inflation is > 75% chance this year.

RRE as in Residential Real Estate?
Do you adjust rents based on inflation?
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:09 PM   #113
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I'm going with 6001 due to rampant inflation.
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:16 PM   #114
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UserPrediction
luckydude
2860
Alectoris
3631
Scratchy
4000
NW-Bound
4000
matjung
4150
Iggysmom
4200
RetireAge50
4247
Closet_Gamer
4300
jeroly
4300
gooddog
4300
GravitySucks
4400
Mr. Tightwad
4500
Magus
4500
Out-to-Lunch
4512
VanWinkle
4675
aja8888
4900
braumeister
4900
Chuckanut
4932
Bigdawg
4933
BatcherNCarolina
4991
donheff
5000
Car-Guy
5000
Golden sunsets
5004
karen1972
5050
corn18
5050
Out of Steam
5084
Dtail
5100
Kork13
5100
PatrickA5
5101
Gumby
5123
mrfeh
5147
Surfs_Up
5150
Helen
5150
clifp
5151
Live Free
5176
MichaelKnight
5180
teejayevans
5191
Born2Fish
5200
SoHan
5243
ducky911
5280
SecondCor521
5281
swaneesr
5290
38Chevy454
5300
tulak
5335
Taxman59
5338
aaronc879
5400
DektolMan
5433
jollystomper
5447
freedomatlast
5480
CRLLS
5481
mistermike40
5500
CincyDave
5569
ATXFIRE2034
5576
Tom52
5675
kgtest
5720
Fermion
6000
F.I.R.E User
6000
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6001
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:19 PM   #115
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I predict the end. Again.
One of these times I’ll be right.
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:21 PM   #116
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I'm going with 6001 due to rampant inflation.
6002.
Because I remember The Price Is Right.
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Old 01-11-2022, 06:46 PM   #117
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6002.
Because I remember The Price Is Right.
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Old 01-13-2022, 09:28 PM   #118
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RRE as in Residential Real Estate?
Do you adjust rents based on inflation?
Based on what I can get in the market for a B+ or better tenant. For existing tenants, it just depends.
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Old 01-16-2022, 09:46 AM   #119
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Old 01-16-2022, 11:21 AM   #120
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For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."
For me it has no real impact. Markets are going up and down.
I will allocate more time into portfolio insurance.
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