Your 2022 S&P Prediction

aja8888 said:
If they pay off those student loans I am sending the government a huge stack of college bills I personally paid and requesting a check. It's only fair! ;)
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Hahaha! for real! I never earned the degree, but did spend my own money taking quite a few classes. My ole man is adamant that college will be free at some point in our lives. I just don't see how that could actually be realistic, as its such a money grab of an operation for these institutions. Maybe though, I suppose anything is possible.

One thing that is for sure, healthcare won't get any cheaper. My kids were getting free school lunch for this 2021/22 school year, I wonder if that will continue to be subsidized or if we will eventually need to pony up again.
 
Fermion said:
I know, same. But on the flip side, we did enjoy two decades of amazing returns in the market that these new graduates probably won't get to see...and they have to pay our SS too.
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Really.....:rolleyes:
 
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Fermion said:
I know, same. But on the flip side, we did enjoy two decades of amazing returns in the market that these new graduates probably won't get to see...and they have to pay our SS too.
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I remember thinking, I'll never make enough $$$ to participate in wealth building. I'll never be able to afford a house. It's a distant memory, but I do remember a looong looong time ago I was thinking to myself, how the heck will I ever be able to get into the stock market. Along with, will I EVER find a job that offers healthcare, and WHEN will I have access to a 401k, if ever?

But somehow, someway, it all worked out.
 
Dtail said:
5100
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I agree -- 5100 come year's end (up ~7%). Decent growth, but lots of volatility. Improvements on the COVID front will help many sectors, perhaps hurt a few others. But inflation factors (consumer confidence), and Fed action (rate increases & its accompanying factors) will drag on the market.
 
38Chevy454 said:
I think 2022 will be a return closer to average gains. 4766 starting value, so that makes 5300 my guess for year end.
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Adding to my post with my thoughts on the year as it progresses. Early will be improving once Omicron has peaked. Mid year will be rough with volatility and more down days than up. Fed rate hikes put damper on growth trying to reign in inflation. Nov elections will put positive climb at end of the year when people vote for change in Congress. Although most of that climb will be predictable based on pre-election polling.
 
Interesting that nobody is going for the complete crash 2008 scenario with a 38% drop.
 
Fermion said:
Interesting that nobody is going for the complete crash 2008 scenario with a 38% drop.
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The FED is stuck in a corner with low interest rates, $1.9 Trillion bouncing back and forth daily on reverse repos with their "approved" institutions and the FED (cash that has no where to go, essentially), lots of jobs and few takers, inflation scorching higher, the bond market almost dead, and stocks through the roof. If they (FED) make any move to kill inflation, the markets will crater and that will bring on......(are you ready?):

THE FED PUT!

:)

(Note: the "put" will protect Nancy's long call options!)
 
ATXFIRE2034 said:
I predict 5576 for 2022. :dance:
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Figured I would reply with my reasoning like others have. Here's how I see the year playing out: Omicron peaks in mid-Jan, Fed completes taper in March, Fed raises interest rate to .25% in June, new COVID variant emerges in July / August, Fed doesn't raise interest rate in the fall, Fed raises interest rate to .5% in December. Gains will be strong in the market until the first rate hike in June, markets sells off after that and volatility rises with new variant and the mid-term election cycle. November and December are VERY strong months in the market to end the year. Unemployment falls to 3.5% by year end, GDP growth on the year is 4.5% and 10 year treasury ends the year at 2.25%.
 
Going to go with a drop to 4000 due to mischief by Putin, Xi and/or Kim. :popcorn:
 
My prediction: down 40% due to rampant inflation, more variants shutting down economy, and huge supply chain problems. Also the dead will rise from the ground and walk the earth.
 
With no geopolitical surprise

I'd be at 5180.

People are sending in the 401K money, and the cash will keep chasing the same stocks.

Demography + media culture has much to do with it.
 
For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."
 
I think the return of the S&P 500 will track very closely with VFINX. If I'm right, buy my newsletter!
 
A big drop at some point. Maybe to 3300 but then coming back and closing the year at 4400
 
OldShooter said:
For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."
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I am doing what Jack Bogle recommends..."Stay the course" but I am still in accumulation phase here and not FIREd yet.

I buy the market every week, and on the week's we take a 2.5% discount I try to buy even MORE. I buy the entire market and AAPL when its on sale.

When the market goes on sale, I make sure to queue my ole man into doing his roth conversions (He has 3 more years left until RMD).

It's about as simple of a strategy as I've come up with over the years, mostly beating the 3 major indexes over my investing career. I'm not swinging for grand slams, just solid double's triples and an occasional home run.
 
aja8888 said:
The FED is stuck in a corner with low interest rates, $1.9 Trillion bouncing back and forth daily on reverse repos with their "approved" institutions and the FED (cash that has no where to go, essentially), lots of jobs and few takers, inflation scorching higher, the bond market almost dead, and stocks through the roof. If they (FED) make any move to kill inflation, the markets will crater and that will bring on......(are you ready?):

THE FED PUT!

:)

(Note: the "put" will protect Nancy's long call options!)
Click to expand...

I thought you were gonna say the dreaded...Whee! word. We might have a Whee moment this year. I could see a correction at some point, definitely a pull back or two...but I don't think the bear's are out to play yet.
 
My WAG (wild a$$ guess) is 3-4% (up). Reasoning? Mid term elections. Although FI already I am still earning a paycheck so zero worry if the major index's take a big dump. Planning to bank dividends for a few months to have some dry powder. Current military pensions pay all the bills. Lot's of cash (world wide) on the side lines right now. If the market dumps 5, 10, 15% that money will show up in the market. My guess is lots of small ups and downs but no down more than 15%.
 
Who knows when the BULL’S will stop raging, my fortune cookie says 2022 will be 10 % gains for S&P 500. International funds will be higher in the 18 % range.
 
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I don't predict, and I don't time the market.
 
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