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Bear, Correction, Recession what is it?
Old 12-10-2018, 09:53 AM   #1
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Bear, Correction, Recession what is it?

Bear, Correction, Recession what is happening and where is the markets going?

I still believe it is a correction but beleive the Feds will dictate what will happen in the end.

To many positives for me to beleive we are heading for a 20 plus decline just yet. IMO
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Old 12-10-2018, 09:57 AM   #2
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Bear Market is a 20% drop, Correction is a 10%.

Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP growth I believe. Corrections and Bear Markets are the stock market, Recession is the economy.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:03 AM   #3
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It is the Great Depression. Oh wait never mind, my portfolio is within 5% of its all-time high.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:11 AM   #4
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Said it before. Just hit the 20% with the same set of current circumstances and it can move up slowly from there.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:12 AM   #5
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The Fed has two key objectives in their interest rate decisions, neither of which are the market: Inflation & Unemployment. So neither of these are specifically geared to adjusting for a recession or a bull market either.

The Fed would be out of bounds to say "we'll hold off on interest rates because the stock market...." but, if unemployment ticked up then they would use that reason instead.

Of course, all these things can interlink, correlate, and influence one another, but not all the same.

We are not (per any current economic indicators) heading into a recession at present. 3Q18 GDP was 3.5%, following 4.2 for 2Q. Will that slow? Maybe, but a lot of things would have to go bad to get two consecutive quarters in negative numbers.

OFC, recession indicators vs. predictors are different (see talking heads on finance TV). But it is very possible to have a market correction without an actual recession.

The Market != The Economy
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:33 AM   #6
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Only someone checking this thread sometime in the future will know. For the rest of us it's speculation.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:34 AM   #7
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It's just the stock market, not the economy. So it's not a recession.
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Old 12-10-2018, 10:49 AM   #8
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I said this in another thread, it still holds.

I think the volatility is caused more by Geopolitical uncertainty rather than rising interest rates, which are not really high by any means. Yes the stock market has been spoilt over the years of next to zero rates, but it really cannot be maintained, and it knows it. It is well known that what the market fears most above all is uncertainty. There is a tremendous amount of emotion in the stock market, this is somewhat unpredictable at best. It will probably be like this for another couple of years until things hopefully settle down. JMHO
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:03 AM   #9
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my portfolio is down about 3.8% and is has been in a mixed 50/50 socks and bonds. The economy is still strong but the media can find too many things to make a stir about (trump, Saudi Arabia, Fed, China arrest, tariffs, Brexit, etc). Don't think we will go beyond a correction but there is too much noise that spooks both people and machine trading. Just have to try and look long term and keep a positive attitude. Not for the faint of heart.
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:20 AM   #10
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Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.
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Old 12-10-2018, 11:37 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird View Post
Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.
Perhaps such irrational exuberance induces denial of the signs that influence the future...
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:01 PM   #12
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Risk took a 10 year holiday. I think a 50/50 mix will get you 4-6% the next 10 years. Wait... I sound like Bogle. No.. Bogle sounds like me
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:03 PM   #13
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Someone told me once that the market will go up, and the market will go down. People seem to forget that.
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:05 PM   #14
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Forget what?
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:10 PM   #15
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It's fear and greed baby, fear and greed !
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:13 PM   #16
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never forget
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Old 12-10-2018, 12:14 PM   #17
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Most current prophecies about the market are Knightian.
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:30 PM   #18
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I have no idea about the market, but I am hoping for a bear. We are over due. I would rather get it out of the way. Re the economy, I do not see any signs of a recession.
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:40 PM   #19
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Just got back home from the ranch and heard stocks were down about 500, I just looked and up about 75. LOL It is, what it is, and I guess for now we can't even call it a correction.
Thanks for your thoughts.
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Old 12-10-2018, 02:45 PM   #20
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Another big time reversal.
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