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Bear, Correction, Recession what is it?
12-10-2018, 08:53 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,521
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Bear, Correction, Recession what is it?
Bear, Correction, Recession what is happening and where is the markets going?
I still believe it is a correction but beleive the Feds will dictate what will happen in the end.
To many positives for me to beleive we are heading for a 20 plus decline just yet. IMO
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12-10-2018, 08:57 AM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Minneapolis 'burbs
Posts: 382
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Bear Market is a 20% drop, Correction is a 10%.
Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP growth I believe. Corrections and Bear Markets are the stock market, Recession is the economy.
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12-10-2018, 09:03 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,660
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It is the Great Depression. Oh wait never mind, my portfolio is within 5% of its all-time high.
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12-10-2018, 09:11 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,298
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Said it before. Just hit the 20% with the same set of current circumstances and it can move up slowly from there.
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TGIM
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12-10-2018, 09:12 AM
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2015
Posts: 13,920
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The Fed has two key objectives in their interest rate decisions, neither of which are the market: Inflation & Unemployment. So neither of these are specifically geared to adjusting for a recession or a bull market either.
The Fed would be out of bounds to say "we'll hold off on interest rates because the stock market...." but, if unemployment ticked up then they would use that reason instead.
Of course, all these things can interlink, correlate, and influence one another, but not all the same.
We are not (per any current economic indicators) heading into a recession at present. 3Q18 GDP was 3.5%, following 4.2 for 2Q. Will that slow? Maybe, but a lot of things would have to go bad to get two consecutive quarters in negative numbers.
OFC, recession indicators vs. predictors are different (see talking heads on finance TV). But it is very possible to have a market correction without an actual recession.
The Market != The Economy
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12-10-2018, 09:33 AM
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#6
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 670
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Only someone checking this thread sometime in the future will know. For the rest of us it's speculation.
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12-10-2018, 09:34 AM
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#7
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gone traveling
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,375
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It's just the stock market, not the economy. So it's not a recession.
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12-10-2018, 09:49 AM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
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I said this in another thread, it still holds.
I think the volatility is caused more by Geopolitical uncertainty rather than rising interest rates, which are not really high by any means. Yes the stock market has been spoilt over the years of next to zero rates, but it really cannot be maintained, and it knows it. It is well known that what the market fears most above all is uncertainty. There is a tremendous amount of emotion in the stock market, this is somewhat unpredictable at best. It will probably be like this for another couple of years until things hopefully settle down. JMHO
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"Never Argue With a Fool, Onlookers May Not Be Able To Tell the Difference." - Mark Twain
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12-10-2018, 10:03 AM
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#9
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: in transit
Posts: 318
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my portfolio is down about 3.8% and is has been in a mixed 50/50 socks and bonds. The economy is still strong but the media can find too many things to make a stir about (trump, Saudi Arabia, Fed, China arrest, tariffs, Brexit, etc). Don't think we will go beyond a correction but there is too much noise that spooks both people and machine trading. Just have to try and look long term and keep a positive attitude. Not for the faint of heart.
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A persons wealth is measured by what they can afford to do without.
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12-10-2018, 10:20 AM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.
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12-10-2018, 10:37 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Florida's First Coast
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Free bird
Mostly bullish thread here. Were all living the fed life. 12% returns on the S&P the last 10 years with 2% inflation. It doesn't get any better than that.
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Perhaps such irrational exuberance induces denial of the signs that influence the future...
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12-10-2018, 11:01 AM
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#12
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Risk took a 10 year holiday. I think a 50/50 mix will get you 4-6% the next 10 years. Wait... I sound like Bogle. No.. Bogle sounds like me
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12-10-2018, 11:03 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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Someone told me once that the market will go up, and the market will go down. People seem to forget that.
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12-10-2018, 11:05 AM
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#14
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Forget what?
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12-10-2018, 11:10 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,893
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It's fear and greed baby, fear and greed !
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Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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12-10-2018, 11:13 AM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
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never forget
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12-10-2018, 11:14 AM
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#17
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Gone but not forgotten
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 6,335
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Most current prophecies about the market are Knightian. 
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If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion.
--Dalai Lama XIV
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12-10-2018, 01:30 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
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I have no idea about the market, but I am hoping for a bear. We are over due. I would rather get it out of the way. Re the economy, I do not see any signs of a recession.
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"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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12-10-2018, 01:40 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Just got back home from the ranch and heard stocks were down about 500, I just looked and up about 75. LOL It is, what it is, and I guess for now we can't even call it a correction.
Thanks for your thoughts.
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12-10-2018, 01:45 PM
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#20
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2013
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Another big time reversal.
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