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Old 07-11-2018, 09:34 PM   #601
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It is amazing how gratifying housework is compared to completing assessment reports that everybody wants, but nobody reads. Those clean windows? They provide value!
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Old 07-12-2018, 07:50 PM   #602
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Nope, I am 31 December.
...and because I am getting closer, and have a big fear that the bear market will begin on or just before the day of my retirement, I am already lining up with the runway, by making AA adjustments.

My plan is to start with fixed instruments, for the first couple years (in the 401Ks and MM), then start shifting over to a bucket system of about 1.5 years' need in a Cash Bucket, plus a growth dividends taxable Stock Bucket that I seed with an anticipated inheritance (and I expect to pass this money on, and never touch myself). I will then steadily move money from the 401Ks into the Cash and Stocks buckets. Dividends from the Stock Bucket will feed the Cash Bucket too. Eventually (maybe 20 years) I will deplete the 401Ks via these withdrawals, and RMDs.

I have modeled all kinds of plans in my spreadsheets for months and months (Roth conversions, traditional 3 buckets, etc), and this one works best for me, giving me some protection from the inevitable bear market. If the bear does hit within the first year or so, I will be safely in fixed assets, and have the dry powder to buy stocks at a bargain.

So, this week I jumped ship and changed all my 401K money over to fixed instruments (averaging 2.4%). I will sit this way for up to a couple years, waiting for the bear to roar and the market to drop ~25%, or until I get a little inheritance money. Either way I will then start the 100% Stocks Bucket going in a couple years.

So, my AA will swing from sort of 0/0/100 to a graduated equities increase over time.

I think this strategy will not be very popular here (you're market timing!), but I don't care, since it should allow me to sleep at night as the market fluctuates during what is surely the latter part of the bull market.

Peace.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:05 PM   #603
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Originally Posted by camfused View Post
So, my AA will swing from sort of 0/0/100 to a graduated equities increase over time.

I think this strategy will not be very popular here (you're market timing!), but I don't care, since it should allow me to sleep at night as the market fluctuates during what is surely the latter part of the bull market.
What if the market goes up 10-15% annually over the next couple of years? Just because the bull is long in the tooth, doesn't mean it won't continue (my understanding is that it's continuing now, mostly due to influx of $ from outside the US). If you're 0/0/100, you miss out on all gains, suffer from inflationary spending power erosion, won't have any idea where the bottom is, or when to jump back in....yes, there are a few reasons for AA. OR, what if it does falter, and 2 years from now, is down 25.0%? Will you go back in, having met your benchmark, or will you be fearful it could fall another 25% a la ~2008? Just thoughts...
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:24 PM   #604
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Thanks. I have rode the bull market for years and years, and have made "enough", enough that I can implement this plan, nearly regardless of what happens. If it does keep going for more than a couple more years, then I am ok with missing out on the very end of it. The idea is to go for low stress.

As for the 25% down, yeah who knows if it will go lower, but if I get in at -25%, then I will not lose as much as those that rode it down from the top. Since bear recoveries tend to last an average of something like 18 months (I forget the exact numbers), I will still be ok eventually.

Also, I probably don't know what I am talking about, but I believe the trade/tariff wars being introduced by a certain individual is likely to be a trigger for the start of the bear, once companies start reporting reduced profits, in a quarter or two.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:26 PM   #605
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Quote:
Originally Posted by camfused View Post
...and because I am getting closer, and have a big fear that the bear market will begin on or just before the day of my retirement, I am already lining up with the runway, by making AA adjustments.

My plan is to start with fixed instruments, for the first couple years (in the 401Ks and MM), then start shifting over to a bucket system of about 1.5 years' need in a Cash Bucket, plus a growth dividends taxable Stock Bucket that I seed with an anticipated inheritance (and I expect to pass this money on, and never touch myself). I will then steadily move money from the 401Ks into the Cash and Stocks buckets. Dividends from the Stock Bucket will feed the Cash Bucket too. Eventually (maybe 20 years) I will deplete the 401Ks via these withdrawals, and RMDs.

I have modeled all kinds of plans in my spreadsheets for months and months (Roth conversions, traditional 3 buckets, etc), and this one works best for me, giving me some protection from the inevitable bear market. If the bear does hit within the first year or so, I will be safely in fixed assets, and have the dry powder to buy stocks at a bargain.

So, this week I jumped ship and changed all my 401K money over to fixed instruments (averaging 2.4%). I will sit this way for up to a couple years, waiting for the bear to roar and the market to drop ~25%, or until I get a little inheritance money. Either way I will then start the 100% Stocks Bucket going in a couple years.

So, my AA will swing from sort of 0/0/100 to a graduated equities increase over time.

I think this strategy will not be very popular here (you're market timing!), but I don't care, since it should allow me to sleep at night as the market fluctuates during what is surely the latter part of the bull market.

Peace.
Do you have a Stable Value account in your 401k? This account can be very valuable with minimum risk.
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Old 07-12-2018, 10:31 PM   #606
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Originally Posted by HNL Bill View Post
What if the market goes up 10-15% annually over the next couple of years? Just because the bull is long in the tooth, doesn't mean it won't continue (my understanding is that it's continuing now, mostly due to influx of $ from outside the US). If you're 0/0/100, you miss out on all gains, suffer from inflationary spending power erosion, won't have any idea where the bottom is, or when to jump back in....yes, there are a few reasons for AA. OR, what if it does falter, and 2 years from now, is down 25.0%? Will you go back in, having met your benchmark, or will you be fearful it could fall another 25% a la ~2008? Just thoughts...
I thought your acceptable AA gives you the peace of mind your looking for, regardless of long bull or coming bear. I am also looking at risk of ER and adjusted AA down to 35/0/65 so even with a 50% decrease, it only costs 17% to total value at the bottom, yet allows me opportunity to buy more and profit on rebound by rebalancing. I sleep good knowing it's a moderated risk/reward.
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Old 07-15-2018, 06:52 PM   #607
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For you recently retired, any advice on a checklist for the final months before the big day? I have my AA where I want it, and will be doing a few medical and dental exams (although I will be jumping over to DW's coverage for another year or so). I don't have a non-financial plan, but I do have a honey-do list for house projects. I guess I plan on just wing it for day-to-day, month-to-month activities.
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Old 07-15-2018, 08:28 PM   #608
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I'm a bad classmate. Somehow I've gotten into OMM. I'm still in Aug, just the end instead of the start. I have to stop this madness!
There was some guy who posted the following advice in this thread in June:

"For those later in the class, repeat after me: "I will give a short notice and stick to it. I will give a short notice.." "

Joe, You should take that guy's advice!
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Old 07-15-2018, 10:18 PM   #609
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For you recently retired, any advice on a checklist for the final months before the big day? I have my AA where I want it, and will be doing a few medical and dental exams (although I will be jumping over to DW's coverage for another year or so). I don't have a non-financial plan, but I do have a honey-do list for house projects. I guess I plan on just wing it for day-to-day, month-to-month activities.
Don't know the details of your circumstances but at this point I would mostly just go into glide mode, and make sure you're clear on handling of any pension, deferred compensation, or LTI and bonus plans with megacorp, and that you have contacts to reach for with questions or issues in the HR group.

I'm just 2+ months in, and still feeling like I'm on vacation, but passing that first semi-monthly pay period with no deposit into my checking account was quite exhilarating, once the fear/angst of no recurring income subsided.
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:21 PM   #610
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Notice given today to boss of impending ER. Was given an excellent annual review then broke the news that it looks like early retirement will occur late this year. A bit tougher to get through after listening to accolades of past year's performance, knowing all along that I needed to give him the news that I'll be retiring before Thanksgiving. Seems surreal now, but made me smile as I drove through 90 minutes of stop and go traffic after another 11 hour day.

Less than a 4 month notice but enough to allow for a good transition. I noticed that I'm already starting to enjoy the little moments of the day even more, knowing there are fewer and fewer days ahead.

Popped a nice bottle of aged Syrah with DW tonight to celebrate the notice. Need to make appointment with retirement board to work out specifics. Today is the first day that the dream started to feel real. It's here...��
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:57 PM   #611
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Congratulations, Steeler! Enjoy the countdown!
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pulled the trigger
Old 07-27-2018, 01:15 PM   #612
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pulled the trigger

Count me in on the class of 2018!
signed my papers today.Looking forward to spending much more time with family and hobbies.I will be 59 Sunday
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Old 07-27-2018, 01:21 PM   #613
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Congratulations Steeler and mtheulen.
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RE AA 65/35
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Old 07-28-2018, 10:29 AM   #614
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33 days, only 5 more Mondays left for me. I'm 61. I'm in coast mode at work, or trying to be anyway. Wish I could just do a brain dump and be done with it.

Congratulations Steeler and mtheulen - I'm right behind you!
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Old 07-28-2018, 12:08 PM   #615
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Congratulations, Steeler, mtheulen, and SumDay (and Ed B. too, you are already done!) Wish you had fewer Mondays! "A steady course," as I repeated to myself a hundred times. Do multiple countdowns! Keep a record of your thoughts these last few weeks. Make some lists and start checking off items on the fun thing you're planning after retirement. It didn't go fast for me, but it went. And now the days seem deliciously longer!

***You know what it is? I just said to myself, on a Saturday, "It's only 2:00," in some delight. When I was w*rking, it would have been, "It's ALREADY 2:00," in some desperation.
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Old 07-29-2018, 08:53 PM   #616
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Greetings and salutations to all on this fine day. Joining the Class a smidge early based on original early 2019 plan. I should modify my handle to 53andchange from 54andchange since 53 turned out to be the exit stage left moment. None the less, the "change" part charges forth!
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:09 PM   #617
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Greetings all, first let me say thank u to this form I been stalking for 4 years I will be 57. And think we will be good, but scared
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Old 07-29-2018, 10:11 PM   #618
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So with that I hope 2018 dec my bd !!
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Old 07-30-2018, 07:46 AM   #619
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Today is my last Monday. I start a 12 week vacation Friday and the retire in October. I know I will have a few days I will be needed between now and then so I know I won't get all that time off. But I did inform them that any needs for my assistance will be on a Tuesday through Thursday schedule, I'm done working Mondays.
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Old 08-08-2018, 06:34 PM   #620
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This web-site has been great in many aspects and has helped my DH and I move forward with our plans.

My last day on payroll will be March 2, 2018 and my DH will be the first week of April, 2018. We started planning a few years ago and now counting down the weeks.

It has been 5 months since I retired. Glad that both my husband and I did it. We are having so much fun traveling around in our RV. We also just got back from an Alaska Cruise. We are spending less $4 than we budgeted, which is great.
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