I think that we have been fortunate as far as valuations go, but shouldn't expect the broad market to keep giving these sorts or returns. I don't think that the value of the broad stock market has kept pace with the price of the broad stock market. That doesn't mean it will drop, but it could easily go sideways for a few years without becoming cheap as the underlying businesses grow to match.
That doesn't mean I have any wonderful suggestions though. If you have leverage on, I'd suggest you take a hard look at what your risk tolerance really is. I'd consider increasing the amount of cash from 2 years to maybe 4, so that you have time to wait out a more durable market drop. I don't think that there are and bonds that are likely to yield gains worth the risks.
That said, I'm still very much long stocks, have a couple of years spending in cash, very little bond allocation, and if I weren't timing withdrawals from retirement accounts to manage taxes and penalties, I'd probably sell some stocks to zero out my mortgage, because right now a 3.875% return for 15 years with no default risk actually looks pretty great for fixed investments.
I can't really speak well to foreign investments, and have a very hard time trusting some of the value of ownership or shares reflecting benefit of operations in a number of locations. Other people can speak much more intelligently to that than I.
For what it's worth to the general economy, it looks pretty good for bouncing back this year, and even if the market doesn't crash, that may help soften any landing. I don't think that you're going to see a big recession, but I wouldn't bet on inflation and interest rates staying where they are for a decade. I wouldn't have bet that a decade ago either, but I'd have been wrong, so take all of it with a grain of salt - you might know better than I or be luckier or both.
That doesn't mean I have any wonderful suggestions though. If you have leverage on, I'd suggest you take a hard look at what your risk tolerance really is. I'd consider increasing the amount of cash from 2 years to maybe 4, so that you have time to wait out a more durable market drop. I don't think that there are and bonds that are likely to yield gains worth the risks.
That said, I'm still very much long stocks, have a couple of years spending in cash, very little bond allocation, and if I weren't timing withdrawals from retirement accounts to manage taxes and penalties, I'd probably sell some stocks to zero out my mortgage, because right now a 3.875% return for 15 years with no default risk actually looks pretty great for fixed investments.
I can't really speak well to foreign investments, and have a very hard time trusting some of the value of ownership or shares reflecting benefit of operations in a number of locations. Other people can speak much more intelligently to that than I.
For what it's worth to the general economy, it looks pretty good for bouncing back this year, and even if the market doesn't crash, that may help soften any landing. I don't think that you're going to see a big recession, but I wouldn't bet on inflation and interest rates staying where they are for a decade. I wouldn't have bet that a decade ago either, but I'd have been wrong, so take all of it with a grain of salt - you might know better than I or be luckier or both.
