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Old 09-16-2020, 10:00 PM   #41
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Perhaps Flagstaff?
Flagstaff would be perfect for me. Or Prescott. Or Payson.

But these are too far out according to DW. She has to be near shopping. Big shopping.
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Old 09-17-2020, 05:57 AM   #42
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The threat of high water is a bit of a crap shoot. It looks like most of us will die off before things get bad enough to drive us from our homes but who knows. Eventually, coastal areas are going to be pushed back and some unlucky folks are going to lose their property. I have seen whole blocks disappear on the Outer Banks so it happens. But with reasonable choice of location the likihood of such problems in the near term are probably low. If I really wanted to live on the coast I would still take the chance but I like the hill I'm on.

On the other hand, I recently read a report that a critical ice dam in Antarctica was threatened and could loosen up a large land based ice mass. To get a visceral fell for what a sudden collapse down there could do read New York 2040. Of course that threat may be as unlikely as the Cumbre Vieja falling into the sea and washing out the entire east coast. Or a sudden pandemic disrupting all of our lives.
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Old 09-17-2020, 06:55 AM   #43
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We don’t live right on the coast for several reasons. Hurricanes with their high winds and storm surge are one reason, humidity another. On the west coast it would be tsunamis keeping us away from the beachfront. So sea levels rising (inevitable with all those melting ice caps and icebergs) isn’t a concern in our lifetime.

We are 80 miles away from a very nice beach at home, so we can visit for a day or several when we want to and the weather is nice.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:15 AM   #44
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We donít live right on the coast for several reasons. Hurricanes with their high winds and storm surge are one reason, humidity another. On the west coast it would be tsunamis keeping us away from the beachfront. So sea levels rising (inevitable with all those melting ice caps and icebergs) isnít a concern in our lifetime.

We are 80 miles away from a very nice beach at home, so we can visit for a day or several when we want to and the weather is nice.
I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/m...odel=kopp_2017

Although we are on the water, our house is 25 feet above sea level (they didn't stupidly build right on the beach back in the old days). Even inputting the worst case assumptions regarding the rate of rise and the lack of mitigation, we will not need to worry about being inundated for the rest of our lives. There are one or two very low lying roads in town that will be inundated unless a causeway is built, but that will be a minor inconvenience. We have abundant rainfall, rivers, lakes and ponds, so water for drinking and agriculture should not be a problem. We may get a longer growing season, which would be fine by me.

I guess the major downside is the potential for stronger cyclonic storms, although we have historically experienced very few and they have usually petered out by the time they get this far north. A secondary downside is that I probably will need to install central air in the next few years.

In sum, we're still going to stay right here.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:19 AM   #45
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Mods - just out of curiosity, why is it okay to discuss climate change in this thread (it is even in the title of the thread), but not in other threads (like the West Coast fire thread)? When the rules are inconsistent like this, it's a little hard to figure out what topics are okay to discuss, and which are not.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:20 AM   #46
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I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/m...odel=kopp_2017

Although we are on the water, our house is 25 feet above sea level (they didn't stupidly build right on the beach back in the old days). Even inputting the worst case assumptions regarding the rate of rise and the lack of mitigation, we will not need to worry about being inundated for the rest of our lives. There are one or two very low lying roads in town that will be inundated unless a causeway is built, but that will be a minor inconvenience. We have abundant rainfall, rivers, lakes and ponds, so water for drinking and agriculture should not be a problem. We may get a longer growing season, which would be fine by me.

I guess the major downside is the potential for stronger cyclonic storms, although we have historically experienced very few and they have usually petered out by the time they get this far north. A secondary downside is that I probably will need to install central air in the next few years.

In sum, we're still going to stay right here.
Congrats on an optimistic attitude!!
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:41 AM   #47
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I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change. I personally would not own a home on a continental US beach because of insurance cost and storm risk. I know that hurricanes hit the coast and this is nothing new. The historical record shows that major hurricanes can hit at any time but there can be long stretches with no such storm landings. It is just not something I want to be thinking about.

I could see owning closer to the shore. Could also see renting there for a few months or a year. But otherwise probably not.

I also would tend to avoid locating in an area where governments are unable or unwilling to manage forests to limit fire risk. Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.
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Old 09-17-2020, 07:56 AM   #48
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I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change. I personally would not own a home on a continental US beach because of insurance cost and storm risk. I know that hurricanes hit the coast and this is nothing new. The historical record shows that major hurricanes can hit at any time but there can be long stretches with no such storm landings. It is just not something I want to be thinking about.

I could see owning closer to the shore. Could also see renting there for a few months or a year. But otherwise probably not.

I also would tend to avoid locating in an area where governments are unable or unwilling to manage forests to limit fire risk. Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.
It is all personal choice, we prefer to have an excellent quality of life, than living in a LCOL area with cold winters and more dreary days than not.

The minor inconvenience of the odd storm is something we put up with for the best QOL we have ever experienced during our lifetime, and some of the best access to top quality healthcare in the country. And we have lived in some of the best places in the country as well as overseas. And, we are certainly not rich by any sense of the imagination. It so happens to be now we are retired and that just makes things better. The only change we would make is to move to Hawaii, but the cost of homes ..... small homes at that, puts me off.

NOW saying that, wild horses could not convince me to live anywhere on the northern Gulf coast down to Padre Island. That is a disaster waiting to happen. Same for the upper east coast from say .... Charleston up to the Jersey shore. Same for Tornado alley and flyover country. They get way worse weather than we do tucked away in the Florida NE Elbow.

BTW, that is what insurance is for anyway.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:01 AM   #49
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I think most folks think about weather or climate and not climate change.
That's true and good... staying away from the third rail.
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Again life is to short to spend it dealing with such wackiness. Better to just visit in my opinion.
I wouldn't like to have my possessions destroyed, but I don't mind working through a weather upset. As a kid in south Florida in the 70's, I was so disappointed we never got a hurricane... never had to evacuate. But I've been back to help family in storm aftermath, and it's something I like to do. A noble battle against mother nature.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:08 AM   #50
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It is all personal choice, we prefer to have an excellent quality of life, than living in a LCOL area with cold winters and more dreary days than not.
Agree!

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NOW saying that, wild horses could not convince me to live anywhere on the northern Gulf coast down to Padre Island. That is a disaster waiting to happen. Same for the upper east coast from say .... Charleston up to the Jersey shore. Same for Tornado alley and flyover country. They get way worse weather than we do tucked away in the Florida NE Elbow.

BTW, that is what insurance is for anyway.
Can you elaborate on your issues with those locations? Well not flyover and tornado alley (though I note there are good places to live there).
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:20 AM   #51
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I think the relative boredom, climate-wise, is what makes me want to stay in Maryland. We get hurricanes every once in awhile, but by the time they're here, they're more remnants than anything else. For the most part, nothing really memorable. I remember when I was younger, people would talk about Hazel (1954?) and Agnes (1972). Agnes was pretty famous because of all the flooding, and if you lived near a coast or major river, or any number of small towns in river gorges that tended to channel a lot of runoff, it left an impression on you. There was another storm, from 1960 I think. Carol, maybe? I remember when I was younger, the locals would bring up one that sounded like that.

Personally, David from '79 left a big impression on me, but that was mostly because I was only 9 years old, and it's the first hurricane I can really remember. In recent memory though, the only ones that stick in my mind were in 2003 and 2011. They both began with an "I"...Isabel and Irene, so I get them mixed up unless I google them.

The 2003 one sticks in my mind, because we had a huge mulberry tree that split in half. One half fell out into the yard, relatively harmlessly, although it squashed a grape trellis. The other half started to slowly list toward the house. My uncle and I cut it down as quickly as we could, and were able to get it down just as one part of it was starting to lean on the roof over the bathroom. Fortunately no damage. I just remember it because it was a lot of work.

The 2011 one sticks in my mind because it came a week after the "Great DC Earthquake of 2011" that the locals sometimes joke about. The storm itself was kind of a letdown, but somehow it managed to knock the power off at work. I remember we had no power Mon-Thurs. It came back on sometimes Thursday evening, but then they wanted to make sure the building was safe to enter, so we were off Friday, as well. And then I think that was Labor Day weekend, so we got the following Monday off, too!

We won't have those kinds of unexpected vacation anymore, in this era of take-home computers and teleworking!
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:53 AM   #52
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Just interested if/how others are factoring climate change projections into account when retirement planning.

Most locations we considered as retirement locations were well above sea level and well outside hurricane strike zones, so those two items didn't fact into retirement location at all. I did figure in an increase of a couple of degrees of the average temperature over the next 25-30 years, but that only ruled out a few areas that were probably already too hot for us. Now if I had planned on a single location for a 40-50 year retirement, I likely would have moved further north.
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Old 09-17-2020, 08:57 AM   #53
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One thing folks should consider is your tolerance for any kind of disaster. Have you ever been through a flood? Major disasters are different from watching the news. I remember my late in-laws.

They built a home on Marathon Key, a beautiful place halfway down the Florida Keys. You could look out over the Gulf and Atlantic from the same room. I asked about hurricanes and flooding, "no problem they turn all the lanes northbound to evacuate". Then Andrew threatened and they couldn't get out of their neighborhood! BIL flew his plane in and was the last plane out of Marathon before they shut down the airport. While there was no damage they put the place on the market a few weeks later.
Your story reminds me of Paradise CA last year during the fires. One road in and out of the place, and it was blocked by burnt out cars and debris from the fire storm. Had it not been for some guy who fired up a bulldozer and cleared the roadway, who knows how many others might have perished.
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Old 09-17-2020, 09:37 AM   #54
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We are 2.5 blocks to the ocean in a small town in N.E. Florida so I watch the sunrise most every morning during my early bike ride on mostly deserted streets. I thought long and hard for 6 years about where to locate once retired. At that time I had been here for about 50 years and my wife for 65 years. I did all the research for potential retirement areas that was available on the web during that time with a long list of requirements (medical, universities, military base, weather, outdoor activities, cost of living, fresh seafood, etc. etc. etc.) and could not come up with a better place for us. The additional bonus was we wouldn't have to pack and move.

Yes we worry a little during hurricane season but so far there has been no serious damage to our area (none to our home) except for some flooding that cleared up in a day. Otherwise it is a little tropical paradise with everything imaginable for entertainment, restaurants, hardware stores, and other conveniences.

We are in our early 70s so by the time the ocean rises sufficiently to put us underwater we will more than likely either be dead or in a nursing home close to a permanent expiration date.
No worries about earthquakes, or tornadoes, or flooding from snow melt, or freezing winter weather, or being snow bound (blizzards), or wildfires, or dust storms, or ice storms.

Preferences are to be near either water or mountains. As beautiful as they are we don't care for deserts or long expanses of flat open grass lands.
I think we will stay and not worry about something that we won't live long enough for us to be concerned about.



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Old 09-17-2020, 09:49 AM   #55
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I actually have given some thought to this and looked at this interactive map of potential sea level rise. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/m...odel=kopp_2017
The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.
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Old 09-17-2020, 10:01 AM   #56
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We are 2.5 blocks to the ocean in a small town in N.E. Florida so I watch the sunrise most every morning during my early bike ride on mostly deserted streets. I thought long and hard for 6 years about where to locate once retired. At that time I had been here for about 50 years and my wife for 65 years. I did all the research for potential retirement areas that was available on the web during that time with a long list of requirements (medical, universities, military base, weather, outdoor activities, cost of living, fresh seafood, etc. etc. etc.) and could not come up with a better place for us. The additional bonus was we wouldn't have to pack and move.

Yes we worry a little during hurricane season but so far there has been no serious damage to our area (none to our home) except for some flooding that cleared up in a day. Otherwise it is a little tropical paradise with everything imaginable for entertainment, restaurants, hardware stores, and other conveniences.

We are in our early 70s so by the time the ocean rises sufficiently to put us underwater we will more than likely either be dead or in a nursing home close to a permanent expiration date.
No worries about earthquakes, or tornadoes, or flooding from snow melt, or freezing winter weather, or being snow bound (blizzards), or wildfires, or dust storms, or ice storms. Cheers!
We sure to live in a nice place for all the reasons you mention.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:44 AM   #57
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The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.
Then change the assumptions in the model to less dire ones (you can do that) or find a model you like better. I don't vouch for the model. I just note that even under the most dire assumptions of that particular model, I won't need to move.

But perhaps all you really want to do is argue with me. I would advise against that because it will drag the thread off topic and it has been going well so far.
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Old 09-17-2020, 11:49 AM   #58
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The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.
What settings did you use, did you read the disclaimers and statement about what the map shows? Did you set it to just sea level rise or did you leave the flood setting on? Did you leave it on bad luck, etc.? It's a planning tool for exploring different scenarios, if you didn't turn off floods its just saying you are in a flood zone in 2040.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:15 PM   #59
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We still plan on retiring to Arizona. I havenít noticed much climate change in the Phoenix area in the 18 years that we have been going there. Itís usually hot in the summer, nice in winter.
Well, this summer has been record setting in so many ways. Something like 54 days when the high temperature was 110F or above (old record was 33). At least 13 days of 115F or higher (old record of 8 I believe.) 28 days when the low didn't dip below 90F! When I moved to Phoenix in 1988, a night when the temperature didn't drop below 90F was quite unusual and newsworthy. Also this summer is the hottest on record and August was the hottest month on record. I believe Phoenix will at some point become unlivable. It's part of the reason, we moved north to the Sedona area which is considerably cooler.
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Old 09-17-2020, 01:36 PM   #60
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The sky must be falling. I used the interactive map you posted and it shows my house under water in 2040. Really? Highly doubt it. I am currently 6 feet above sea level. You are trying to tell me the Potomac and Chesapeake will rise over 6 feet in the next 20 years? Alarmist maybe. Just a little. It has basically risen zero inches in the 8 years I have been at this address. Call me a skeptic.
There is a big difference between projections of mean sea level rise (Average ocean rise currently around 1/8 inch per year) and increased likelihood and severity of high water events. The flooding projections represent the latter.
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