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Old 09-22-2020, 12:36 PM   #121
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Originally Posted by dixonge View Post
Many things can and are attributed to climate change (see list of examples from MonteCFO), and all of them, in fact, represent changes. See? Funny! Scientific phrase vs common-use phrase. Can't you hear everyone laughing

OK, I'll stop now...
I am glad someone was paying attention. I think periods of stasis are also attributable to climate change, so don't get too wrapped up in the verbiage.
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Old 09-22-2020, 01:08 PM   #122
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Besides fire, the most recent of catastrophes in California, there is also water shortage. The current leaders are aiming to make it law that water use will be restricted to 55 gallons per day per person. Right now, DW and I use a hair over 1,000 a day during summer and around 350 a day during winter. No accommodation for lot size or use. We are on 5 acres and raise food crops and animals.
When we lived in California in the 1980's, and we were in a long drought situation, our town put water use restrictions on us (mainly for sprinkler heavy use) that were 250 gallons per day per person in the household. I can't imagine what 55 GPD would be like since even a quick shower can use 20+ gallons and much more if you have teenage daughters (we did).

Maybe it's time for you to drill a well if a potable aquifer is under your property?
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Old 09-22-2020, 01:26 PM   #123
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Regarding the CAP in AZ, there could be cuts to that. "We've entered Tier Zero, when the elevation of the reservoir Lake Mead drops below 1,090 feet above sea level.

Lake Mead actually ended 2019 with its water above 1,090 feet above sea level, but the reservoir nonetheless entered Tier 0 because that designation depends on the projections of a 24-month study published in August, which predicted that at the end of 2019, Lake Mead would fall below 1,090 feet.

Under the Drought Contingency Plan, a seven-state plan spelling out tiers of cutbacks to each state depending on the capacity of Colorado River reservoirs, Arizona must leave 192,000 acre feet in Lake Mead this year."


https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news...-2020-11423832
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Old 09-22-2020, 01:38 PM   #124
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Yes, for anyone who remembers what Lake Powell and Lake Mead looked like in the 1980s vs. today, the difference is stark. Lake Powell is at 47% of "full" and Lake Mead at 43%. Meanwhile, the population in states using that water continues to grow, and annual snow pack and rainfall levels are increasingly insufficient to raise the water level. More people sharing less water will inevitably lead to rationing.

I will say that my former city Tucson (we still winter there) has been a leader in water management. The per capital daily consumption in Tucson is now at 76 gallons. This beats the most efficient state, New Mexico, by a couple of gallons.

https://mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/i...tial-water-use


Quote:
Originally Posted by timo2 View Post
Regarding the CAP in AZ, there could be cuts to that. "We've entered Tier Zero, when the elevation of the reservoir Lake Mead drops below 1,090 feet above sea level.

Lake Mead actually ended 2019 with its water above 1,090 feet above sea level, but the reservoir nonetheless entered Tier 0 because that designation depends on the projections of a 24-month study published in August, which predicted that at the end of 2019, Lake Mead would fall below 1,090 feet.

Under the Drought Contingency Plan, a seven-state plan spelling out tiers of cutbacks to each state depending on the capacity of Colorado River reservoirs, Arizona must leave 192,000 acre feet in Lake Mead this year."


https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news...-2020-11423832
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Old 09-24-2020, 07:36 AM   #125
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Here's a timely (and very good) NYT article with an interactive chart showing the greatest climate change risk for every county in the US. Pick your poison, though I don't consider the categories equal. Water stress/drought is projected to affect the most people.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...=pocket-newtab

Quote:
The threat of climate change “will never be here-and-now in people’s minds unless you’re in California today or New Orleans during Katrina,” said Mr. Steinberg, the research director at Four Twenty Seven. “It’s got to be out your window for you to really say it’s having an impact on your life, your livelihood, your retirement plan or whatever it might be.”

We’re bad at contending with threats we can’t see. But with climate fires on one side of the country, climate hurricanes on another and a pandemic that has killed more than 900,000 people worldwide, it’s clear that these threats are devastatingly real.
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Old 09-25-2020, 07:37 PM   #126
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I originally thought about moving to Florida for the warm weather, low taxes and beaches. However, the forecast that it will soon start seeing more hurricanes due to warming ocean temperatures makes me hesitate.
I just bought a house 3 blocks from the ocean in FL. I'll let you know in 30 years how it worked out, but for now, it looks like the biggest risk is the bamboo trees in the back yard.
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Old 09-25-2020, 07:39 PM   #127
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Avoiding Coastal Areas

I love it here in the Binghamton, NY area as we are far enough removed from big water to avoid storms and in the southern most area of New York to avoid extreme winter cold, yet we enjoy all four seasons and our summers only have a handful of days in which we need to use air conditioning.

There is a tremendous amount of natural beauty with the Adirondacks to the north and the Finger Lakes just a stone's throw away. If we want big water like the ocean and Great Lakes we make a trip of it and can savor these locales without the climate risk and without the pricey homes, taxes & other incidentals that comes with such locations. I think we enjoy such areas MORE when they are not outside our front door and available 24/7.

My only concern from a climate perspective is that we have had 2 very serious floods in our area over the past 15 years or so. Fortunately our home was spared in both of them.

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Old 09-25-2020, 07:43 PM   #128
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I have a home on the ocean in northern California, and on the Atlantic ocean in Florida. Over the past ~40 years it appears the Pacific tides are down in northern California, and on the Atlantic side of the country - the tides are up a bit. In Florida the state 'rehabs' the beaches every 2 or 3 years, dredging in sand to fill our the beaches. That program will continue, and is built into the budget. Where there is a need for government to do 'something' it is already being done and financed. For those who worry about moving to Florida - the condos are built of steel and concrete. The condos are not going anywhere, and with the hurricane shutters and laminated glass, there really isn't anything to be concerned about. JMO.
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Old 09-25-2020, 08:34 PM   #129
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Bill Gates just bought a sea side mansion so everyone in this forum should be ok with "climate change"
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Old 09-25-2020, 08:43 PM   #130
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I'm not going to argue the science or politics (but my climbing roses told me they are tired of the abnormal heat ;-). In relation the the OP question, one must consider the human reaction to what is occurring and what is forecast to occur with climate and the human perception of the effect climate has on the weather. Not that much different than the stock market. What will happen with local politics and property values just from the perception of climate change as it relates to property values and future population density. People will not freak out about climate change until they do, and probably all at once. The financial freak out will probably be beyond my lifespan, but maybe not yours. Who knows?
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Old 09-25-2020, 08:51 PM   #131
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Bill Gates just bought a sea side mansion so everyone in this forum should be ok with "climate change"
I see that Gates paid $43 million for his seaside house, while recent estimates put Gates net worth at about $106 billion. In other words, Gates spent only about 0.04% of his net worth on his new house. I very much doubt that he would be concerned about any future event damaging his new abode since he easily could buy more than one hundred similar properties without any significant change in his net worth.
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Old 09-25-2020, 09:29 PM   #132
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Regarding the CAP in AZ, there could be cuts to that. "We've entered Tier Zero, when the elevation of the reservoir Lake Mead drops below 1,090 feet above sea level.

Lake Mead actually ended 2019 with its water above 1,090 feet above sea level, but the reservoir nonetheless entered Tier 0 because that designation depends on the projections of a 24-month study published in August, which predicted that at the end of 2019, Lake Mead would fall below 1,090 feet.

Under the Drought Contingency Plan, a seven-state plan spelling out tiers of cutbacks to each state depending on the capacity of Colorado River reservoirs, Arizona must leave 192,000 acre feet in Lake Mead this year."


https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news...-2020-11423832
I've got about 100 million acre-feet of water that I'm pretty sure most of the residents that live on the shores of Lakes Huron and Michigan would love to send you at the moment (though we may ask for it back in 10-20 years). Maybe normal variation but those interactive maps from the NYTimes suggest that we can expect larger rain events in our area due to global warming and it makes sense. Fingers crossed that water levels don't come any higher. We just spent 60k on shoreline protection work so we are here for the long haul. Unless the water keeps coming up!
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Old 09-25-2020, 11:51 PM   #133
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Climate change was a major factor in our decision to retire to Hungary. Here the climate is mild and getting more mild as time moves on. It is a bit wetter than before but we haven't had snow in 4 years now. It is less hot in the summer and we only ran our air conditioning maybe 4 days all summer and then only in the bedroom at night.

I do see major changes in the flora as there are new diseases killing off the cypress trees and some new beetles killing off other trees. There are also more mosquitoes than usual with foreign strains emerging so there are these kinds of impacts. I have had to remove 6 trees which became diseased and will replace them with something more hardy. We won't live long enough to see them grow much but it is a nice thought for whomever gets this place after we are gone.

I am thinking to sell it all once we get to 80 and try apartment living. My wife is not in agreement and wants to live here to the end. We will see what she says in 7 years.
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Old 09-26-2020, 08:37 AM   #134
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Thanks for the interesting discussion.

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