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Old 06-02-2021, 09:46 AM   #41
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Question: with so many new homes being built and birth rates dropping, isn't the net result going to be a glut of homes? I doubt immigration is the X-factor.......or is it?
There has been a glut of older homes for decades...in cities like Pittsburgh, Detroit, St Louis, etc. They can be bought at giveaway prices. But nobody wants them. When anyone tries to clean things up, they call it gentrification, which is often a bad word.
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Old 06-02-2021, 11:24 AM   #42
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PS - our retirement house was going to be ~2,500 sq ft. We planned to make it "nice" (like, actually having a garbage grinder, LOL) but not exhorbitant. I worked very closely with the county assessor to make sure I wasn't getting myself into a situation where my taxes would be prohibitive. Best estimate was that my property taxes would be $12,000 - $14,000 per year on that simple, albeit "nice" 2,500 sq foot house.
That provides some weird incentives in construction, such as using cheap builder-grade fixtures and leaving out expensive trims long enough to get a certificate of occupancy. Then go back and put in the expensive things later.
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Old 06-02-2021, 11:34 AM   #43
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I doubt immigration is the X-factor.......or is it?
I suspect that a decrease in legal immigration over the past 4-5 years may well be the X-factor right now.

Increasing wages, combined with population losses in gateway cities while it grows elsewhere may both point in that direction.
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Old 06-02-2021, 01:00 PM   #44
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At least part of the recent price explosion has to be related to super-low inventory. There are more buyers than sellers, which is driving prices up. As the pandemic eases and things get back to “normal”, the extra inventory should theoretically spur some competition among sellers and at least flatten prices.
I think you are right. There may be a long term shortage of land in some places with geographic or zoning limits, but we have enough places in the U.S. where land is cheap. There are generally no constraints on prairie cities building out further and further. Working more from home is likely here to stay so more workers may be able to move more to follow cheaper housing. Post-pandemic, one of our relative's jobs has been changed to permanently work from home, with team members living in countries all over the world. The company is going to "office hoteling" where they have generic office space people can go to if they want but there's no more individually assigned cubes or offices.

I don't think most homes use any rare earth metals that may have long term limited inventory. Supply will catch up with demand as lumber yards reopen and stock up, interest rates will likely rise and housing prices will drop. Robert Shiller said in a recent article that prices will come back down, not overnight, but enough to cause some pain.
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Old 06-02-2021, 01:52 PM   #45
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Working more from home is likely here to stay so more workers may be able to move more to follow cheaper housing.
I hope you are right, but based on what I've been reading and hearing an awful lot of companies are trying very hard to get workers back in the office. Even workers who could relatively easily work from home.

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I don't think most homes use any rare earth metals that may have long term limited inventory.
The physical structures may not, but there are so many appliances and devices that are part of the IoT that it will definitely affect home building. There's not much value in building a shell and not being able to outfit it.
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Old 06-02-2021, 02:01 PM   #46
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I hope you are right, but based on what I've been reading and hearing an awful lot of companies are trying very hard to get workers back in the office. Even workers who could relatively easily work from home.
On a legal forum I am on, there are a lot of mid sized firms that are learning the hard way that people are GOING TO WORK FROM HOME and it's not up for negotiation. A fella I went to law school with had 3 paralegals/assistants QUIT when they were told they would have to go back to the office. Some of the larger firms have decided that they will allow many of the "non attorney" employees chose if they want to work from home or at the office.
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Old 06-02-2021, 02:47 PM   #47
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I hope you are right, but based on what I've been reading and hearing an awful lot of companies are trying very hard to get workers back in the office. Even workers who could relatively easily work from home.

This may be the opening salvo in which companies who realize that "w*rking from home" DOES work, are setting folks up for the "Well, you no longer need to live in a HCOL area to make it TO w*rk, and your usual expenses caused by BEING at w*rk (car, clothes, extra travel time, day care, etc.) are now zero, we can cut your pay! Welcome to OUR world, Mr. and Mrs. 'stay-at-home'." YMMV
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:04 PM   #48
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We have lived in Michigan nearly all of our adult lives and have not experienced this. FWIW.
Sounds like your valuation (SEV) was set without anyone sharing with you as to how, because what I described is precisely how it works. Everything in your house - down to the materials used to build it such as brick vs aluminum siding - influences and/or partially contributes to what the SEV is set to. Trust me on this - I spent a very long time last year diving into it all in excruciating detail with the area assessor. But if you still don't believe me, go read it yourself in the State Assessor's manuals at https://www.michigan.gov/treasury/0,...3932--,00.html.

Now, if you bought a used house - the valuation was set using the process I described when the SEV was first determined. Some (few) things can change a house's SEV, like an upgrade such as finishing a previously unfinished basement - and that's where the massive set of rules and calculations comes in. SEV as I understand it can also change to reflect "market conditions".

Taxable value (the amount you pay property taxes on), of course, is different than SEV. And taxable value increases, unlike SEV, are capped to the lesser of 5% or CPI annually. When a house is sold, taxable value resets to SEV. That's what can make it hard to move - many people are enjoying a pretty big gap between SEV and taxable value. If/when they move, they start back at square one with a taxable value equal to the SEV of the house they are purchasing.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:11 PM   #49
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That provides some weird incentives in construction, such as using cheap builder-grade fixtures and leaving out expensive trims long enough to get a certificate of occupancy. Then go back and put in the expensive things later.
EXACTLY! People frequently do that for precisely the reason you mentioned, with the biggest "do later" being converting an unfinished basement to a finished one.

If you're building a house, it really does pay to understand how your taxes are going to work ahead of time - in mind numbing, nauseating detail. Or you could very easily get a pretty unpleasant surprise come tax time.

We just had neighbors move in from TN. I feel really bad for them, as their taxable valuation is reset to the state equalized value. That means for essentially the same type of house (square footage, trim, quality, etc) they had in TN, their property taxes are going from ~$2-3,000/yr to over $14,000 per year. They (oddly) don't seem that concerned about it as they're both still young and presumably pulling in some pretty good paychecks, but holy cow what a jump.

Like I said initially..websites like SmartAsset that think they can come up with lists of where property tax values are good and not so good are usually unaware of many of these details..and people making decisions off those lists can wind up with some pretty unpleasant surprises. Because it's not just the official millage rate that matters - but what house valuation you are paying taxes on to begin with. And even very similar houses in 2 different states can have WILDLY different taxable valuations.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:24 PM   #50
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I suspect that a decrease in legal immigration over the past 4-5 years may well be the X-factor right now.

...
Doubtful. Aside from the noisy data, at ~1M/year legal immigration seems to still be near a high point except for the turn-of-the-last-century Ellis Island days.

https://www.migrationpolicy.org/prog...nent-Residents

I would guess that 2020 will be a bust due to Covid restrictions.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:28 PM   #51
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EXACTLY! People frequently do that for precisely the reason you mentioned, with the biggest "do later" being converting an unfinished basement to a finished one.

If you're building a house, it really does pay to understand how your taxes are going to work ahead of time - in mind numbing, nauseating detail. Or you could very easily get a pretty unpleasant surprise come tax time.

We just had neighbors move in from TN. I feel really bad for them, as their taxable valuation is reset to the state equalized value. That means for essentially the same type of house (square footage, trim, quality, etc) they had in TN, their property taxes are going from ~$2-3,000/yr to over $14,000 per year. They (oddly) don't seem that concerned about it as they're both still young and presumably pulling in some pretty good paychecks, but holy cow what a jump.

Like I said initially..websites like SmartAsset that think they can come up with lists of where property tax values are good and not so good are usually unaware of many of these details..and people making decisions off those lists can wind up with some pretty unpleasant surprises. Because it's not just the official millage rate that matters - but what house valuation you are paying taxes on to begin with. And even very similar houses in 2 different states can have WILDLY different taxable valuations.
This is where trusting your realtor to steer you correctly could be problematic. It's easy to look up tax records that say "Mr and Mrs X pay $2500/year in property taxes for the house you are looking at Mr and Mrs Y." If a realtor could actually follow "the property tax code" and calculate it properly: Would they? Letting someone know that the property taxes on their proposed purchase would suddenly reset from $2500 to $14,000 would be ethical, but it wouldn't help the realtor get a sale. Blissful ignorance by the realtor would perhaps be understandable if not moral but YMMV.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:41 PM   #52
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This is where trusting your realtor to steer you correctly could be problematic. It's easy to look up tax records that say "Mr and Mrs X pay $2500/year in property taxes for the house you are looking at Mr and Mrs Y." If a realtor could actually follow "the property tax code" and calculate it properly: Would they? Letting someone know that the property taxes on their proposed purchase would suddenly reset from $2500 to $14,000 would be ethical, but it wouldn't help the realtor get a sale. Blissful ignorance by the realtor would perhaps be understandable if not moral but YMMV.
Well, to be fair to the Realtor...many aren't equipped with the tools to accurately figure out the tax in the future. There are so many rules that complicate it (and can vary by county depending on where you are) and they may not know what a millage rate will be for the next tax year, let alone the value. Realtors can provide a service, but to expect them to help with EVERY SINGLE facet of a R/E deal isn't prudent and often isn't allowed under their E&O insurance carriers.

Not only that, in my DW's experience (she was a Realtor for many years), the buyers generally don't care about the taxes and as long as they are able to get the loan (which will also depend on CURRENT taxes) that's all they care about.
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Old 06-02-2021, 03:55 PM   #53
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Well, to be fair to the Realtor...many aren't equipped with the tools to accurately figure out the tax in the future. There are so many rules that complicate it (and can vary by county depending on where you are) and they may not know what a millage rate will be for the next tax year, let alone the value. Realtors can provide a service, but to expect them to help with EVERY SINGLE facet of a R/E deal isn't prudent and often isn't allowed under their E&O insurance carriers.

Not only that, in my DW's experience (she was a Realtor for many years), the buyers generally don't care about the taxes and as long as they are able to get the loan (which will also depend on CURRENT taxes) that's all they care about.
I agree with your basic premise that realtors can't be an expert on every facet of home purchase. Having said that, NOT alerting a potential buyer that the current tax-listings for the house they are considering will go up - WAY up would, in my opinion be a moral lapse or gross incompetence. It would be easy enough to look at the taxes paid on recent COMP sales. It would not be exact but would show that there could be an order of magnitude increase in property taxes. THAT would be a pretty good piece of information to have when considering the purchase of a house in another state IMHO. Of course, NOT revealing that or even suggesting that the prospective buyer "look it up for themselves" wouldn't be illegal. But for 6% of the sale price, I'd expect a bit more service than "sign here and here and here." YMMV
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:06 PM   #54
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Hopefully, buyers at least understand the very basics of how property taxes work in a given state.

I know for our own house search NOT to look at the property tax data listed in Zillow, Realtor.com, etc, as that's current and likely capped tax liability, but to hunt down the SEV and millage rate and do my own calculation as to what "future" taxes will be since I know taxable value resets to current SEV on close. I suspect "most" people know to do that here..but maybe I'm assuming too much ..

Then again, we also look at a lot of other variables, too - like is there a decent nearby hospital. That's a pretty important purchase criteria as we all get old. You'd be surprised how many otherwise nice locations don't have a decent hospital within half an hour. We just passed on an otherwise really nice house the other day because..no good hospitals within half an hour. Today, we're reasonably close to a couple of good ones.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:09 PM   #55
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I agree with your basic premise that realtors can't be an expert on every facet of home purchase. Having said that, NOT alerting a potential buyer that the current tax-listings for the house they are considering will go up - WAY up would, in my opinion be a moral lapse or gross incompetence. It would be easy enough to look at the taxes paid on recent COMP sales. It would not be exact but would show that there could be an order of magnitude increase in property taxes. THAT would be a pretty good piece of information to have when considering the purchase of a house in another state IMHO. Of course, NOT revealing that or even suggesting that the prospective buyer "look it up for themselves" wouldn't be illegal. But for 6% of the sale price, I'd expect a bit more service than "sign here and here and here." YMMV
And this is why I would guess that 98% of broker/buyer/seller agreements has a clause indemnifying the agent for knowledge items like tax liability.

Don't get me wrong, I am not a fan of the system as it stands. "Realtor" is nothing more than a trade group that lobbies HEAVILY to keep laws favorable to them and while they act as a friend to buyers/sellers they aren't...at least as far as I am concerned. The truth is that the only real protections for consumer comes from state laws. I am more than happy to see how some companies have come in and upset the status quo (such as Redfin).
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:31 PM   #56
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Hopefully, buyers at least understand the very basics of how property taxes work in a given state.

I know for our own house search NOT to look at the property tax data listed in Zillow, Realtor.com, etc, as that's current and likely capped tax liability, but to hunt down the SEV and millage rate and do my own calculation as to what "future" taxes will be since I know taxable value resets to current SEV on close. I suspect "most" people know to do that here..but maybe I'm assuming too much ..

Then again, we also look at a lot of other variables, too - like is there a decent nearby hospital. That's a pretty important purchase criteria as we all get old. You'd be surprised how many otherwise nice locations don't have a decent hospital within half an hour. We just passed on an otherwise really nice house the other day because..no good hospitals within half an hour. Today, we're reasonably close to a couple of good ones.
I think it very much depends upon what folks have gotten used to in their home state. Most folks can say with "confidence" that their taxes are based on (let's say) assessed valuation. With that in mind, if the state they are looking at says "our RE taxes are based on 'assessed valuation'" I would ask - is that like "sale price" or is that some "multiple/fraction of sale price?" Honestly, it wouldn't occur to me that you have to go back to the drawing board to figure it. AND I'd expect my well-compensated realtor to at least give me a clue about the intricacies of my newly adopted state's "gotchas."

Folks too - rightly or wrongly - wisely or unwisely - depend on folks like Zillow for at least SOME level of accuracy and transparency. I've figured out that neither is true, but that's 'cause DW spends hours on their site and cries "BS" every 5 minutes (I'm exaggerating - not the time frame, but the use of the term "BS")

Heh, heh, back in the day, our realtor never "warned" us that we'd be saving a bundle on our RE taxes AND State income taxes! She just said "this is what the current folks pay and it always goes up a little bit as valuation goes up." We couldn't figure it out exactly as the internet didn't exist back in the day - so it was a pleasant surprise. Now, it's "out there" but so obtuse that figuring something without help is problematic. SO, once again, if I pay for a realtor, I'd like to be able to depend on one to at least get me close on such things - and YES I NOW know to ASK the question but YMMV.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:34 PM   #57
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"Realtor" is nothing more than a trade group that lobbies HEAVILY to keep laws favorable to them and while they act as a friend to buyers/sellers they aren't...at least as far as I am concerned. The truth is that the only real protections for consumer comes from state laws.
Speaking of some degree of disappointment with Realtors, I went to an open house a few days ago. I asked agent hosting what kind of stone the kitchen counters were---granite, or quartz, or Corian, or what? They were clearly "stone", that much I could tell.

Hosting agent looked at listing, did not find info, so he said he would find out that answer from listing agent and email me the answer. That evening the email answer came: counter was "laminated Formica".

This is the level of professionalism realtors are asking 6% for on several hundred thousand dollar transactions.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:46 PM   #58
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I always joke that if you can't be good at anything then try becoming a realtor! I am sure there are some good ones but almost everyone I have worked has been lack luster. I still use them but their job is just to give me forms and run comps for me. I run the whole show.
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Old 06-02-2021, 04:56 PM   #59
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I always joke that if you can't be good at anything then try becoming a realtor! I am sure there are some good ones but almost everyone I have worked has been lack luster. I still use them but their job is just to give me forms and run comps for me. I run the whole show.
Pretty much have to run the show to protect oneself. Last house we sold I interviewed three agents and got comparative market analyses from each. I set the sales price, and we got full price and house sold in two weeks---this was in 2013.

One of the realtors contacted me about three months later after our transaction had closed, and wanted us to list with her, and was kind of indignant I had not been responding to her meanwhile. Like if I got a CMA from her I was obligated to list with her. That realtor had suggested listing for a price $28,000 lower and insisted that would be pushing it to try for even that much! She was so surprised when I told her the house was already sold, at full price $28,000 more than she suggested, and the deal was done and finished, and the money was in our pockets. She couldn't believe it. Some of those people are arrogant in their non-professionalism.
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Old 06-02-2021, 05:14 PM   #60
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Sorry, I didn't mean to turn this into a "dump on realtors" thread. Both realtors we used here in the Islands were Top Notch and helped us navigate the issues of Hawaii which are much different than our home state.

Back in our home state, the realtor involved in our first purchase helped us navigate a potentially devastating error that a SURVEYOR had made 2 years earlier. We bought a house that wasn't on the land we purchased - because the surveyor screwed up. Our realtor stepped in (those 2 years later) and forced the surveyor to redo all the work. The realtor figured a way to undo and then redo the sale - passing a dollar bill back and forth - it was one for the ages! When the surveyor had the gall to bill us, the realtor politely offered to ruin his reputation all over town! It was a thing of beauty.

On the limited topic of real estate taxes and their various "intricacies" I simply wanted to imply that Realtors should be "UP" on such things and help clients figure "about" what their costs will be. I don't think that is too much to expect for the money. Other than that, I'm sure we have horror stories about all the professions we deal with as YMMV.
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