US Life Expectancy Falls

[GravitySucks]

Life expectancy dropped another 7 months this year.

That decrease follows an already*big decline*of 1.8 years in 2020. As a result, the expected life span of someone born in the U.S. is now 76.4 years — the shortest it has been in nearly two decades.


https://www.npr.org/sections/health...cy-is-now-at-its-lowest-in-nearly-two-decades

Personally, I need to stop procrastinating on those things I'd like to do!

 

[Jimonlimon]

That's bad statistical analysis.

Covid 19 killed a lot of people. A lot of other people died putting off medical treatment for other causes. Most of those who died were older.

Of those still alive today, everyone either avoided Covid 19 or survived it. Most of them don't have a shortened life expectancy.
Babies born tomorrow will be in a world where Covid 19 is endemic, those who are young and exposed will mostly be fine and develop a fair degree of immunity to severe cases.

My poorly-explained conclusion is that those who didn't die from Covid 19 probably don't have a significantly shorter life expectancy going forward, and those who will be born tomorrow will not be affected in any meaningful way.

Sort of like how a war affects death rates but not necessarily life expectancy of the population after the war ends.

Drug OD deaths are obviously a big concern. The report didn't quantify the increase, but this could be a major factor in the life expectancy numbers.

 

[audreyh1]

That's bad statistical analysis.

Covid 19 killed a lot of people. A lot of other people died putting off medical treatment for other causes. Most of those who died were older.

Of those still alive today, everyone either avoided Covid 19 or survived it. Most of them don't have a shortened life expectancy.
Babies born tomorrow will be in a world where Covid 19 is endemic, those who are young and exposed will mostly be fine and develop a fair degree of immunity to severe cases.

My poorly-explained conclusion is that those who didn't die from Covid 19 probably don't have a significantly shorter life expectancy going forward, and those who will be born tomorrow will not be affected in any meaningful way.

Sort of like how a war affects death rates but not necessarily life expectancy of the population after the war ends.

Drug OD deaths are obviously a big concern. The report didn't quantify the increase, but this could be a major factor in the life expectancy numbers.

If they are using the same formula to calculate life expectancy each year I don’t think you can blame bad statistical analysis for the change.

 

[Ian S]

My poorly-explained conclusion is that those who didn't die from Covid 19 probably don't have a significantly shorter life expectancy going forward, and those who will be born tomorrow will not be affected in any meaningful way.

Apparently, repeat infections with Covid are quite hard on your body and likely shorten your life to some degree: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/repeat-covid-is-riskier-than-first-infection-study-finds-2022-11-10/

 

[Jimonlimon]

I read it through again and the article does address the various generational differences. Now that I've had my [-]drugs[/-] morning coffee I don't think the article is that bad- but it does suffer the common malady of somewhat sensationalized headlines.

I've seen several articles talking about break-even points for Social Security and they are using life expectancy from birth. They should use life expectancy from the time people are planning their social security start date- maybe age 62.

An example from the SSA life expectancy tables (2019 data) is that 62 year old men had a live expectancy at birth of 67 years but those still alive now have 20 more years for 82 total. (Those born now have 76 year expectancy.)

 

[Car-Guy]

What's that light I see coming at the end of the tunnel? I guess I need to bump that WR again...


That put's me well into the single digits... Honestly, feels about right... But maybe I'll beat the average.

 

[GravitySucks]

This is one of those metrics I think most of us believed would always be slightly improving or at least hit a high and stay there. Apparently it's not.

Between DM's deteriorating health handling my Uncles 'Estate' and am probably more sensitive about health issues than I should be. Uncle tripped on a throw rug and twisted his knee. Went to the hospital a week later and was sent to nursing/rehab center and caught Covid. He was dead in three days. Mom hurt a rib and won't go to the doctor because she's afraid they'll sent her to rehab and she'll suffer the same fate.

I got a feeling Covid eventually is going to take out as many of us as the flu does now. Just because I got through one bout fairly easy doesn't mean the next one will be survivable.

 

[braumeister]

I think it's important to remember that life expectancy numbers are only averages and only apply to large groups of people. They are utterly meaningless in terms of individuals.

My life expectancy at birth is an age I passed long ago. My LE in the year I retired has also been surpassed. My LE at my current age is still well into the future.

 

[street]

With all the studies, ways to and over thinking and trying to predict when we will die, taking SS earlier and later was a no brainer for me. I'm not sure I will live to 82 years of age and don't need it at 70 and sure don't need more SS as I get older. I'll spend my SS when I'm the most active in life. Sustaining a legacy for heir has more value for me than waiting for more SS.

So many people I know since I retired, have passed away in late 50's and under 70 years of age.

 

[Koolau]

Drug OD deaths are obviously a big concern. The report didn't quantify the increase, but this could be a major factor in the life expectancy numbers.

Those "ODs" are mostly fentanyl poisoning - not really an "OD" in the classic sense. Most victims thought they were taking a diverted legal drug but got fentanyl instead. The difference between an "effect" and death is quite small with this drug.

I submit (without evidence) that these are deaths that are more preventable than Covid but I'm not an expert so YMMV.

 

[JoeWras]

I submit (without evidence) that these are deaths that are more preventable than Covid but I'm not an expert so YMMV.

"When somebody offers you drugs, what do you say?"
"Just say NO!"

Too simple, I guess. Now considered an "idiotic" method. No room for that education, we have other priorities to discuss with the 4th graders.

 

[USGrant1962]

As I posted on last year's "big drop in life expectancy" thread, the CDC's model is highly suspect. It is a "projection" that projects the most recent death rates forward forever. So Covid and fentanyl never end in this model.

https://www.early-retirement.org/for...ml#post2637424

https://www.statnews.com/2021/02/25/...lly-five-days/

EDIT - and the drop discussed in OP was last year (2021 not 2022) under peak Covid.