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An ‘expected obliteration’ of financial assets threatens to kill FIRE movement?
Old 12-18-2018, 01:58 PM   #1
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An ‘expected obliteration’ of financial assets threatens to kill FIRE movement?

Totally foolish article:

An ‘expected obliteration’ of financial assets threatens to kill FIRE movement

with one small bit of common sense:

"Don’t allow FOMO over FIRE push you into making irrational decisions you may regret. This climate will punish you for that."
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Old 12-24-2018, 02:38 PM   #2
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That article seems like someone was just waiting to write it. Wearing a smug "I told you so" smile the whole time. Take this paragraph, for example:

Quote:
And finally, the saddest letter of them all: E is for Expire. “After a long life of working because you had to, not because you wanted to, reluctant DIRE followers will look back on their lives with regret,” Dogen wrote. “They will curse the day they ever heard about FIRE because otherwise they would never have taken the leap of faith at the top of the market and fallen splat on their faces.”
Sorry, I factored a 2008-type pullback (40%) into my plans. I may not be as FI as some, but I'm gonna stay RE!
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Old 12-24-2018, 02:55 PM   #3
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I think there was some tongue planted in cheek when he wrote that article. Since then, he has become a lot more negative.

From his twitter feed (Financial Samurai):

In case you’re wondering, now is finally starting to feel like the hopelessness we felt in 2008-2009. Unrelenting selling. Down 1-3% on a daily basis. No bottom in sight. No confidence in the Fed or the government. Embrace the fear and learn from it.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:00 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by CaptTom View Post
Sorry, I factored a 2008-type pullback (40%) into my plans. I may not be as FI as some, but I'm gonna stay RE!
Yeah, everybody does it their own way. (At least I hope they're doing it their own way!) You went conservative and likely stayed in the accumulation phase (working) longer than if you had gone with the more conventional wisdom. Others are at the opposite extreme and bail out using optimistic assumptions and lofty WR's. It's up to each of us........

One thing I don't understand about your statement "I may not be as FI as some" is that if you have a 40% allowance for a pullback built in, I think you're more FI than most, not less.
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Old 12-24-2018, 03:08 PM   #5
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Another clickbait "news story" from Marketwatch.com

Another clickbait "news story" that is a re-hash of a financial blogger.

I am *soooo* surprised.
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Old 12-24-2018, 04:03 PM   #6
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From Seeking Alpha:
A nine page analysis that goes deep into the market. One that you won't like, and may cast it out of hand as deep do-do. Page 3 has a scare about prime rate increases, that is ameliorated later on. Still, the dive into debt value has some serious implications, and the international analysis of debt can be troublesome. In any case, there may be some parts of the article that could trigger concern as the coming year progresses.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/422...-eye-happening
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Old 12-24-2018, 05:02 PM   #7
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I expect more articles like this if /when SS gets a haircut!!
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:47 AM   #8
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I took my "leap of faith" at the near-bottom of the market back in late 2008. That turned out to be a big boost to my ER because it gave me a huge buying opportunity. I was able to buy 20-25% more shares of my big bond fund at rock-bottom prices. Living mainly off dividends from that bond fund has been pretty easy. I have had to supplement that income with stock fund dividends but even if those get reduced I will still be fine.


Market losses have wiped out my gains from the last 2 years but I am still way up from when I ERed in late 2008. Rebalancing has allowed me to capture those gains.
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Old 01-01-2019, 02:52 PM   #9
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I actually don't entirely disagree with the premise of this article. When I was stuck in a completely miserable and dysfunctional job until mid-last year I was gobbling up FIRE content in the form of blogs and podcasts. I was desperate to find a way out of my job situation at the time. FIRE was almost like that beacon of hope for me. There are a lot of principles in the FIRE movement that are really more about combining LBYM, save, invest, explore real estate investing, and leverage the internet to tap into some form of entrepreneurship to help you make money so you can quit your corporate job. I think there is a ton of value in that that anyone can learn from.

I think pundits are right to call out those in the FIRE movement who are on the other side of the coin. The "save 500k and retire at 30 and live off of 17k per year for the rest of my life" crowd. I fully expect the FIRE movement to take a pretty substantial hit if we have a prolonged downturn and/or recession combined with a bear market. A lot of the people this article is calling out are, in my opinion, that under 35 crowd who want to do whatever it takes to quit their job as soon as possible and live as minimalistically as possible for the next 50 years of their life. That group doesn't know what it is like to deal with an economic downturn and watching their portfolio evaporate (on paper).

I say all this as a younger member (36) who wants to retire by 55. The article is click baity financial p*rn garbage from marketwatch at its core. But I think there is an underlying truth to the point it's trying to make....and that is that there are a lot of younger people (I'd say under 40) in the FIRE movement who aren't as prepared as they think they are to either FIRE and withstand a downturn, or simply deal with the mental and emotional side of a downturn and the impact that can have on your portfolio.
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An ‘expected obliteration’ of financial assets threatens to kill FIRE movement?
Old 01-01-2019, 11:04 PM   #10
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An ‘expected obliteration’ of financial assets threatens to kill FIRE movement?

There are better sources of financial advice, imho.
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:56 AM   #11
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IMO "The FIRE Movement" is/was a fad destined to go where all fads eventually end up.

Those of us who are legitimately FI and RE never felt part of a 'movement', but just did our thing and either through plan or circumstance ended up FIRE.

You either are FI or you're not. If this current market drop is making the difference between your planned RE or not, you may need to reconsider what you call FI.

Too many of these loons with $200K running around saying "I'm FIRE, I'm FIRE". Good luck with that.

Harumpf!
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:00 PM   #12
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"pointing out that the average net worth in America has risen to almost $700,000."


Whut?!
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Old 01-02-2019, 05:24 PM   #13
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Those of us who are legitimately FI and RE never felt part of a 'movement', but just did our thing and either through plan or circumstance ended up FIRE.
I didn't even know about the "movement" until after I RE'd.

I'm still uncomfortable with the phrase "FI." To me, that's someone who's so rich they'll never have to even think about money again. Sure, we have some of those here, but I suspect most of us continue to have to manage income and expenses. At different levels, maybe, but the idea is the same.
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Old 01-03-2019, 02:28 PM   #14
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Hehe, yeah, me too. I signed up here after I retired. I never planned to get out as soon as possible by aggressive saving and scrimping, just earlier than 65. Target was 60 and I managed 59.
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