For those under 35, what is your magic number

I've changed my original goal of 45 to 55. DW had to stay home, so our income got cut nearly in half. We toyed with going more spartan, but we determined we are getting a lot of enjoyment out of the money we are currently spending ( nice slr camera for kids pics, little vacations, etc.). So I am 32, have about 130k in investments/savings, and we are socking about $10-12k a year away. With my contributions increasing 1% over inflation (definitely doable) per year, I see us with a little over 2 mil at 55, which will be a little over a mil in today's dollars. The house will be paid off (20 year mortgage), and my work has a pension you can take at 55 which will pay about 50% of my salary. If I retire at 54 I have to wait to 62 or 65 ( I forget) to get the pension. They also have a neat feature where you can take a whopping amount of cash per month from 55 to 62 or 67 and then reduce by your SS benefit amount. I'm looking strongly at this as A) I'll have to cover health care myself until medicare kicks in and B) I'm more likely to want to see the Pyramids of Giza at age 57 than 67.

I'm cool with 55, it's still young, it makes it so there is no worries with money now, no sense of deprevation. Plus, my work eventually gives you six weeks off and every other Friday, plus 7 holidays. That's 167 days off a year including weekends, so it's not exactly indentured servitude. But tough days like today make pushing my day of freedom out a decade seem a bit depressing.
 
I'm aiming for somewhere between $2M and $2.5M at age 45 (2016). I could probably go with a good bit less, but I like to be conservative. And if I read my benefits book correctly, 2016 is the earliest I could retire and be eligible to continue participating in my employer's group health insurance.
 
We could get by very nicely on 2 Mil, in today's dollars, but we're aiming for 3 Mil. Should be doable by our late 30s assuming our golden handcuffs don't turn to lead.

Aside question - why do you think OAS and CPP are in trouble? I'm a Canadian but I don't live in Canada at the moment so I'm a bit out of touch with Canadian politics... are Canadians concerned about OAS and CPP?


Most of us under 35 will have no company pension plans, reduced SS (OAS, CPP in my case from Canada) so we will have to do it on our own.
 
My magic number would be 1.5M in 2007 dollars (it would provide enough income at 4% to retire comfortably). I am 33, and we should get there in about 10 years. I will probably quit my current career when we reach that milestone but my wife wants to keep working in her current line of work until she is about 55. If that's the case our nest egg could reach 4-5M in 2007 dollars by the time she pulls the plug. My wife would like to have a nest egg of at least 4M when she retires. This could yield a yearly income which would be 2.7 times was really need (at 4% SWR), and given how tight she is with money, I don't know what she expects to do with all that cash...
 
About $3M . If I had that today I would probably wait to get to $4M, but in a few years I will be more eager to leave, and am planning to jump with about $3M. At that point I will be closer to 45 than 35.
 
I'm aiming for around $1.4 million in today's dollars. I've got a fair chance of reaching that goal by 35.

Coming from you, Justin, I'm not surprised. Impressed, nevertheless.
 
Age 27. Portfolio just broke $300,000. Plus I've got another $30-40k in a pension-like plan that will be fully vested in a couple years. Saving $60,000+ per year. The savings rate is likely to increase significantly in the next few years and at a rate about twice that of inflation (in nominal terms) thereafter...


Damn. That kicks ass. I'm hoping we can hit 60k/yr savings, but that's only after we paid off the house. I don't seeing it increasing significantly.

Well done.
 
I highly recomend those looking into early retirement get them a business calculator like the HP12c or 17b and learn how to use the Time Value of Money keys. 1.5M will give you your $50K but if you are 35 looking to retire at say 55, you will have the spending power of $27,683.79! at 3% inflation. If you can live on that today, you've got the right number. My guess is most of us would not be happy long term with that number, considering health care, and unexpected expenses.

By the way, you will need to generate $90,305.56 a year or $2,257,639 at a 4% SWR.
 
I highly recomend those looking into early retirement get them a business calculator like the HP12c or 17b and learn how to use the Time Value of Money keys. 1.5M will give you your $50K but if you are 35 looking to retire at say 55, you will have the spending power of $27,683.79! at 3% inflation. If you can live on that today, you've got the right number. My guess is most of us would not be happy long term with that number, considering health care, and unexpected expenses.

By the way, you will need to generate $90,305.56 a year or $2,257,639 at a 4% SWR.

Just use Excel.
 
I use Excel, but mostly for larger spreadsheets. Books that come, or at least use to come with the HP calculators were great learning tools for those that don't work with TVM regularly. But you are right, you can get the same answers from Excel, and if you want to go further and create total budget or projection predictions similar to FireCalc, then it is the only way to go. For quick one liners I prefer the HP.

The main point, however, is don't forget what inflation is going to do to you when you make future projections. 3% per year is a killer over time!
 
Wife (36) and I (34) teach in public schools. 3 kids (6, 5, and 10 months).

Only debt is around $190,000 left on the mortgage (30 year fixed at 5.375% that we'll have paid off by the time I turn 47 if we keep adding extra to the principal at the current clip).

Approximate rainy day fund in bank (CD's and Money Market) totalling $35,000.

Both of our vehicles are getting older (99 Grand Cherokee and 00 Mercury Villager) so we need to have some liquid assets just in case.

Approximate retirement investments (mutual funds in 403-b and Roths) totalling $250,000

Approximate non retirement investments (mutual funds and DTE stock) totalling $185,000

Approximate educational investments for kids (Coverdell IRA's and 529's) totalling $40,000

Currently, the wife and I are putting away 23 Grand a year total. She hasn't worked for around a year now (been off with the new baby), and will not go back to work for another year.

A breakdown of yearly contributions...
12 Grand in my 403-B accounts
4 Grand apiece in Roth accounts
3 Grand total towards children's college accounts.

For me... the plan to retire is at 48 years old. That's when I'll be eligible (as long as things remain how they are now) for a pension (45% of my salary at the time) with close to full benefits, and won't have any more house payments to worry about. Wife will not be eligible for a full pension until her mid 50's due to time off with kids. She laughs at me when I say I plan on retiring that early. My reply is always wait and see... wait and see.

As far as an actual goal... We'd like to hit the 2 million $ level before I retire. I'm fairly confident that with 13.5 years to go, We should be able to pull it off if we keep saving at this rate (and eventually getting extra contributions from my wife when she does go back to work).

It's the cost of college that scares me the most. My parents paid for my college (and I'm eternally grateful for it), so I'd like to do the same for my kids and let them start out in the working world as debt free as possible.
 
The main point, however, is don't forget what inflation is going to do to you when you make future projections. 3% per year is a killer over time!

Doesn't FIREcalc factor inflation into its calculations? That is, if I say I want 50K annual withdrawal, and that I'll FIRE in 10 years, doesn't it adjust the 50K for inflation up through (and beyond) the target FIRE year?
 
I believe it does, however, that is different from saying I will have $1.5 Mil and that will give me $50,000 in income in say 20 years. It will 4% of 1.5 Mil is 50,000 and you should be able to take 50,000 adjusted for inflation for the next 30 years. However, that 50,000 will only purchase 27,000 at present value.

I have never seen the actual spreadsheet that backups FireCalc, so I don't know if it makes the future calculation of

a. I need 50K today to live on, how much will I have to have saved in order to get the same buying power in 20 years?

b. It seems to me FireCalc is using what you have saved now, what you will save until you expect to retire, how much you need when you retire. I believe it is adjusted for inflation when you start to withdraw, but I don't know if it gives you a total you will have when you retire. As I said in an earlier report, however, it would have to be close to 2.25 million, not 1.5 million.
 
The numbers that I have in mind are (all in 2007 dollars):

$1,875,000: Ideal. This would allow me to live the kind of lifestyle that I consider ideal including travel.

$1,250,000: Probable. This would allow me to live a decent if more modest life with some luxuries.

$875,000: Aggressive: This would allow me to maintain my current (middle middle class) lifestyle, but wouldn't allow the kind of adventure I'm hoping for.
 
I'm shooting for 2.5mil, as I want to have a family. We'll see how inflation goes though. If it's fairly mild, or if Social Security survives, I may be able to get off "easy" and only need 1.5mil. ;)
 
I don't want to beat this to death, but are you saying for your probable, 1.25M in 2007 dollars is realy 2.25+M in 2027 dollars, i.e. 20 years till retirement. So your savings plan will allow you to save/invest to achive the 2.25M in 20 years in order to get your 4% swr equal to a $50,000 retirement today. ( i just picked 20 years as I have no idea what your er horizon is)
 
I don't mean to speak for anyone else (and I'm not sure if you were asking me), but:

For me, when I say 1.25M in today's dollars, I mean that I intend to adjust that upwards each year to account for inflation [so the 2.25M in 20 years analogy would be the correct idea (trusting that you've done the math correctly)].
 
I don't want to beat this to death, but are you saying for your probable, 1.25M in 2007 dollars is realy 2.25+M in 2027 dollars, i.e. 20 years till retirement. So your savings plan will allow you to save/invest to achive the 2.25M in 20 years in order to get your 4% swr equal to a $50,000 retirement today. ( i just picked 20 years as I have no idea what your er horizon is)

Yep. When I say I will need 1.5M in 2007 dollars to retire, I mean that if I retire in 20 years (with 3% inflation), I will need to build an actual 2.7M nest egg by the time I retire (the equivalent of 1.5M in 2007 dollars). It would give me an annual income of 108K at 4% SWR, which is the equivalent of 60K in 2007 dollars (which is what I need to maintain my current lifestyle). So I understand the damage inflation does to one's savings, it's just that I know what one dollar is worth today and it is easier for me to normalize everything to 2007 dollars.
 
I'm the OP

I must say you guys are ridiculous, or live extravagant lifestyles. When I put in my original numbers, they are in future dollars...ie. not what I would need in today's dollars to retire. My optimistic scenario would mean retiring at 45 and living fairly frugally (I think my number was 800K or so....didn't look at my original post). A paid off house and savings of 500K or more would put you in the top 30% of net worths in the world I imagine....on this forum it appears that trying to retire with less than a million is blasphemy.

There are people out there who only live off SS and small savings and do just fine. My parents are an example of that. They live off gov't pension, very small (20K per year) work pension and have at most 200K saved up and they are doing fine...they never have to withdraw any of their pension money. I do their taxes so I know that they are living off about 35K per year with no problems whatsoever. We live in CAnada so health care is not a concern here. People saying they need 2mil + in TODAY'S dollars really need to look at their spending habits and determine where cuts can be made.
 
I'm the OP

I must say you guys are ridiculous, or live extravagant lifestyles.

I would rather say most people here are ambitious and have big plans for ER.

You are right that you can live a nice life on less than 1 million, but that doesn't make it ridiculous to want more.
 
I would rather say most people here are ambitious and have big plans for ER.

You are right that you can live a nice life on less than 1 million, but that doesn't make it ridiculous to want more.

Yes, but for 99% of the people out there, going from 1mil to 2mil will take alot of sacrifice, BS, and stress, and for what? An extra $40K per year in retirement income that puts them in a higher tax bracket and which they probably won't spend anyways. They sure will have nice fat wallets when they die I guess......
 
Accountingsucks,

Us Americans have to pay for health insurance out of our portfolios. I'm planning on paying for 30 years worth of premiums out of my own pocket, personally. I can only imagine what I will be charged in annual insurance premiums at age 64 (37 years from now). Health insurance and health care represent approximately 15-20% of my budgeted spending needs in ER.

I also have a family of 4 (with very young children) that may continue to grow. I'd like to have a little fun (that requires spending money) when I retire. There's also room in my budget for belt tightening, should the need arise. If I tried to retire with a portfolio that could only support a bare-bones retirement, I'd really be screwed if things went really bad investment-wise.

And I live in a moderate cost of living area. I could easily see a family looking to FIRE in the higher cost of living areas needing a $2 million portfolio to support a moderate middle-class lifestyle.

I'd rather put in a couple more years at the salt mine stashing away money so I can take a vacation and buy a new car every once in a while during FIRE. I'm personally hoping to stretch my FIRE out at least 4 decades, maybe 5 or 6 if I'm lucky! I'm thinking at some point during that time I'd like to have a little flexibility money-wise to do something I can't really imagine right now.
 
Aside question - why do you think OAS and CPP are in trouble? I'm a Canadian but I don't live in Canada at the moment so I'm a bit out of touch with Canadian politics... are Canadians concerned about OAS and CPP?

CPP has thrived since 1993 when it was taken out of the clutches of government and restructured to facilitate investment in the markets. The print version of this Macleans article had a neat diagram showing the cash flows of CPP (black and rising) and OAS (red and falling) since 1993.
Macleans.ca - Canada - Features | Rescue operation

CPP recently lost to the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan in a bid to take over BCE and is now bidding on the Auckland airport. (This is not your grandfather's bond fund).
 
I'm the OP

I must say you guys are ridiculous, or live extravagant lifestyles.

Excluding savings, my monthly budget is just over $4000. Half of that is housing, and my house is less than $260k (as a hint, most housing in my area is around $500-$900k.. yes, I'm keeping up with the Joneses).

However, I'm also on a damn nice medical plan at work. Conservatively, I assume that I'll need to spend $800-$1000/month for my wife and I for coverage.

Assuming that my house was paid off, I'd need to be able to consistantly live on $3000 a month. We don't travel, we don't have expensive hobbies (well, we're both into photography, but that's a pretty small outlay all things considered) and we hardly ever eat out. Heck, we own one car; talk about unamerican! we do spend a lot on groceries (buying organic, locally-grown, fair trade, etc can kill your budget) and we donate a good bit but I'm definately not going to change either of those extravagant spending habits. Well, at least not until UNICEF runs out of children in need.

Frankly, if it comes to working five extra years so I can grow my portfolio to $1.5mm or get out 4 years sooner at $500k, I'm going to work a little longer so that I don't need to figure out how to live comfortably on SS. A 2-3% drawdown rate is what will let my wife and I sleep well at night without stressing about life. It'll let us be more active with our charitable giving and other things we want to do and, to me, that's worth it... extravagant or not.

And, I think you're way off base on another thing when you talk about the 'added stress of trying to grow a portfolio from $1mm to $2mm'. Frankly, as near as I can tell, that's the easiest part of the whole stupid equation.

Assume that you are getting a modest 7% return (a nice balance of total stock market and total bond market). On average, without you even checking your balance or contributing one extra penny, your portfolio will double in 10 years. It might have taken you 20 years of scrimping and saving to get to that $1mm mark, but that money is like a bread starter, it'll keep feeding and growing itself. Getting from $2mm to $3mm is even easier! It'll only take you five years.
 

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