Race to 2024 - please join :)

[AlabaMalaysia]

Hi NginieER,

I believe the study data set paper that I shared above includes all periods from 1871 to 2016 in timeframes from 30-60 years not excluding any fail data sets, various CAPE starting points, CPI adjusted, different AA and withdraw rates to around 6.5 million sets. The resulting summary table seems to basically show if withdraw under 3.5% or even 3%, which is our plan, the fail rate is very low to zero. Am I looking at the data wrongly?

 

[NgineER]

Race to 2024 - please join

I did not read the paper. I was referring to historical calculators such as firecalc and Bengen’s work that does a historic evaluation of how your portfolio would have fared.

 

[AlabaMalaysia]

NgineER yes if I run a $1.4M portfolio with $45k spending for 60 years inflation adjusted (which is more than we plan to spend or have ever spent annually by $9k) in multiple calculators to include firecalc it always has shown 100% success rate with a much larger final value and not a final value of $0 like the trinity 4% studies. I have been skeptical of some of these calculators which is why I wanted some feedback from real people who have been retired in the real world for things to think about like healthcare expenses as I age.

The paper I reference uses some of Bengen's work and improves upon it as there are flaws in some of his methodology and same for firecalc that most people are unaware of. Example: I believe firecalc uses annual withdraws instead of monthly withdraws on the principal which can significantly alter the math in periods of severe down or up months that in data sets can change the outcome significantly from my reading hence why I looked for a more robust analysis. From my study and help me if I am wrong, most of the calculators are made by IT programming guys not Ph.D economists or modeler people, so their data sets seems to be limited in some capacity usually like annual withdraws assumptiions and are good ballparks but lacking in some capacity.

 

[brokrken]

AlabaMalaysia,
To your point above about ObamaCare, good that you have a backup plan to move to Malaysia. Depending on the political situations, the current set up could change in the future. Personally, in my calculations, I assume that I pay fully for healthcare, even though in reality (assuming ObamaCare continues as is) I would be managing my income in much the same way you plan to. I would hate to plan on it and then the law changes.

And to your other points about the calculations, I don't doubt them. You have clearly done alot of research on the methogologies. My concern was more about the spending. You know your spending habitsbetter than I, so I can't judge if you are estimating correctly. Personally, even without a child, my wife and I could never live a full year on $36k. 1 round trip flight to Malaysia for the 2 of you would probably run $1K each ($2K total) or 5% of your annual budget.

 

[AlabaMalaysia]

brokrken on healthcare how would I go about looking at what healthcare would cost if not working and not using Obamacare I should do exactly what you did to see what that would cost on the America side. Yes our cost of living is quite cheap somehow I guess living in the south yet we do more than anyone I know of even traveling which is documented on our blog.
Example of recent trip we did to Maldives and Malaysia for under $3k total for both combined=
https://alabamalaysia.weebly.com/expenses-maldives.html
https://alabamalaysia.weebly.com/expenses-malaysia.html

We usually don't pay anything for airline flights just use credit card reward miles to do that. Many perks like that could change in the future though so we do need to model what the cost would be if we had to pay for things like that in future if those hacks disappear. Will try and calculate that and see the increase in costs thanks for the idea.

Is everyone else here being two years out planning to use Obamacare?

 

[luv2hunt]

Down about 175k for the quarter. Started the year of invested assets at 92% of our goal and ended Q1 at 89% (4.897M).

 

[brokrken]

Net Worth Excluding Real Estate and Personal Property
06/20/2017 - $1,205k
10/02/2017 - $1,273k - Nice little quarter, I would say.
1/1/2018 - $1,354k - Still headed in the right direction. Let's see what 2018 has to offer.
4/1/2018 - $1,398k - Smaller increase this quarter as the market hasn't helped. Luckily my contributions more than made up for the lack of market returns.
07/02/2018 - $1,461k - Q2 was similar story to Q1. Moving in the right direction though.
10/01/2018 - $1,537k
01/01/2019 - $1,328k - Ouch, what a terrible December
04/01/2019 - $1,520k - Q1 got back much of what Q4 lost!
07/01/2019 - $1,576k - Nice quarter and a new high. Still chugging along.
10/01/2019 - $1,594k - While I'm way up from January. I'm not that far up from same period prior year. But, I'll keep piling it in and hope the market helps me along the way.
01/01/2020 - $1,729 - Excellent Q4 for 2019, which more than made up for Q4 2018. Here's hoping 2020 brings more of the same.
04/01/2020 - $1,453k - Wow, the last 3 weeks have been brutal. Down $276k from last quarter and $67k from last year!
07/01/2020 - $1,763k - Amazing that this market has been so resilient and I am grateful for it. However, I am still expecting a W recovery, at best. All the money that was lost in Q2 is gone forever, unemployment is still extremely high and our deficits are out of control. You all may have even seen in a different thread that I have recently purchased October SPY puts with the thought that once Q2 earnings are realized and valuations are proven to be out of whack, we'll have a retest.
10/01/2020 - $1,948k - Well, those SPY puts haven't worked out so well. Finally closed them out at a loss a few weeks back. Anyway, another good, yet mystifying quarter. I did a separate thread where I celebrated eclipsing $2M. That lasted for about 2 days and I still haven't gotten back. Hopefully for the year end update I'll make it. Considering where my portfolio was on March 23, this update is really remarkable.
01/01/2021 - $2,194k - What an absolute mess of a year. While very thankful for how my portfolio performed, it is completely illogical. While the rest of the world was burning down, stocks marched higher. I'm fearful that 2021 takes it all back. That being said, I hope I am once again wrong, as doing so seems to be very profitable... And, I wish you all a very Happy New Year and Cheers to (fingers crossed) life getting back to normal
04/02/2021 - $2,422k - Was travelling yesterday so missed the 4/1 balance. Up nearly $1M from one year ago....freaking amazing. Being so close to my number, $3M, I'm wondering if I should start to adjust my allocation to a more conservative approach. Current I'm something like 83/8/9. On the one hand, it's what got me here so if it ain't broke don't fix it, on the other hand, I don't want to see it go away in a correction. I'm young enough that I could continue to w*rk for a couple more years if needed, but I don't really want to. Also, now seems like the worst time to buy bonds. No clue what to do. Anyway, hope you all had a nice quarter, as well
07/05/2021 - $2,704k - Another amazing quarter. Of course owning NVDA has helped. Still worried about a pull back. Being so close to my number with still some years left has me nervous, not wanting to give it all back.
10/01/2021 - $2,672k - It was a rough last few weeks. High for the Q was actually $2,792.
01/01/2022 - $2,985k Really nice year; even hit the $3M mark a couple times in the last few months. Just bought a vacation home, so about $100k of this is now gone per Dec 28th, but being so close to the end of the year, I just left it in to keep 2021 clean. Original goal was $3M; with inflation I'm thinking I might need to up that to $3.5M or $4M

04/01/2022 - $2,899k Rough quarter plus I removed some funds for the vacation home I mentioned last quarter. But, Q1 finished better than it looked like it was going to a few weeks ago. So, cheers to that. Here's hoping for a better Q2.

 

[SnowBound]

Only down about 5% for the quarter (have less saved than others, contributing a higher percentage of the balance than others).
Odd life thing happened: Took on a retirement job; gave up my old role of 5 days a week on call (demand) 24/7 when things went wrong; new role 25% less pay 3.5 days a week & no on call & no working 24/7 from home. My wife said I got my new role paycheck in the bank, $100 more than my old paycheck.

 

[Exit 2024]

Ended 2021 at all time high of $2,361k (+$333k for the year) - 78.7% of target.

Q1 2022: finished in red at $2,316 (-$45k for quarter or about 2% down from end of the 2021) - NW is 77.2% of the target.
I guess not that bad considering that S&P500 is down about 5.5% for the same period.

 

[NgineER]

54.3% investments and cash only
104.1% of target when including cash flow from properties

Just wrapping up the financing of the last property we've been rehabbing unit by unit for the last two years. Didn't pull the trigger in December, too much other stuff going on and now I'm paying quite a bit more for the loan. Not maxing out the loan, but getting our investment back.

 

[exnavynuke]

Investments down about 5.6% since the start of the year. Not a great quarter, but hopefully things turn out better for the rest of the year.

 

[Yoheadden]

Definitely not a good quarter, but we have time to rebound. One of the best reminders I heard the other day was that you don’t use all of your money at once.

 

[Obj 2022]

Well, things took an unexpected turn to say the least...I got fired, DW gave her notice and truth be told we are both tired of the rat race...so even if we are not where we were planning to be, firecalc still gives us 100% success rate due to a sub 2% withdrawal rate and we are happy to give FIRE a serious try this year (and should it not work out then we will come back and re-adjust...) !

So I guess I chose my nickname correctly after all and will join the class of 2022 while leaving the 2024 one

All the best guys, been a fun ride !!!

Well already 4 years, cant believe how quick time flies, though i guess it is a time for an update

At the moment 2022 is out of the picture and my wife and I are firmly scheduled for 2024 (even penciled 15th july as THE date!). We've upped the target a bit due to 2 kids being born since last post, as we feel we need extra cushion for stuff like tuitions etc. Currently at 89.6% of target so very close thanks to the rocket like market but i dont really feel that confident retiring too soon towards the end of a bull run...So even if there is a good chance target is hit next year, will pad the brokerage/cash accounts a bit by working an extra year or two to make sure we will not be too stressed out should a downturn happen early into FIRE!

All the best to all and see you in 3 years i guess

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Well, things took an unexpected turn to say the least...I got fired, DW gave her notice and truth be told we are both tired of the rat race...so even if we are not where we were planning to be, firecalc still gives us 100% success rate due to a sub 2% withdrawal rate and we are happy to give FIRE a serious try this year (and should it not work out then we will come back and re-adjust...) !

So I guess I chose my nickname correctly after all and will join the class of 2022 while leaving the 2024 one

All the best guys, been a fun ride !!!

Best of luck! I might subscribe to that thread, because despite the downturn I know we could both pull the lever now and be quite comfortable if we just don't travel as much as I had hoped (which would still be a LOT more than I expected 15 or 20 years ago!).

 

[The Cosmic Avenger]

Well, for a while I toyed with the idea of retiring a little earlier than 2024, partially because of the banner market year we had last year, but now I'm glad I didn't! We'd still be fine retiring now, but I'm feeling like by 2024 we should be in an upswing and that might be a better time to retire anyway.

Anyone else reconsidering or at least considering more scenarios?

 

[Toast]

I am reconsidering. My current plan targets September 2023. This market has me second guessing things. Moving my date to join the Class of 2024 would afford another year to max out my 403(b).

 

[exnavynuke]

I am reconsidering. My current plan targets September 2023. This market has me second guessing things. Moving my date to join the Class of 2024 would afford another year to max out my 403(b).

Yeah, my investments are back down to about where I finished 2020 at now, so there's a strong likelihood that 2024 will not be enough time to get to where I'd like to be. I'll probably be pushing to 2025 myself.

 

[brokrken]

Net Worth Excluding Real Estate and Personal Property
06/20/2017 - $1,205k
10/02/2017 - $1,273k - Nice little quarter, I would say.
1/1/2018 - $1,354k - Still headed in the right direction. Let's see what 2018 has to offer.
4/1/2018 - $1,398k - Smaller increase this quarter as the market hasn't helped. Luckily my contributions more than made up for the lack of market returns.
07/02/2018 - $1,461k - Q2 was similar story to Q1. Moving in the right direction though.
10/01/2018 - $1,537k
01/01/2019 - $1,328k - Ouch, what a terrible December
04/01/2019 - $1,520k - Q1 got back much of what Q4 lost!
07/01/2019 - $1,576k - Nice quarter and a new high. Still chugging along.
10/01/2019 - $1,594k - While I'm way up from January. I'm not that far up from same period prior year. But, I'll keep piling it in and hope the market helps me along the way.
01/01/2020 - $1,729 - Excellent Q4 for 2019, which more than made up for Q4 2018. Here's hoping 2020 brings more of the same.
04/01/2020 - $1,453k - Wow, the last 3 weeks have been brutal. Down $276k from last quarter and $67k from last year!
07/01/2020 - $1,763k - Amazing that this market has been so resilient and I am grateful for it. However, I am still expecting a W recovery, at best. All the money that was lost in Q2 is gone forever, unemployment is still extremely high and our deficits are out of control. You all may have even seen in a different thread that I have recently purchased October SPY puts with the thought that once Q2 earnings are realized and valuations are proven to be out of whack, we'll have a retest.
10/01/2020 - $1,948k - Well, those SPY puts haven't worked out so well. Finally closed them out at a loss a few weeks back. Anyway, another good, yet mystifying quarter. I did a separate thread where I celebrated eclipsing $2M. That lasted for about 2 days and I still haven't gotten back. Hopefully for the year end update I'll make it. Considering where my portfolio was on March 23, this update is really remarkable.
01/01/2021 - $2,194k - What an absolute mess of a year. While very thankful for how my portfolio performed, it is completely illogical. While the rest of the world was burning down, stocks marched higher. I'm fearful that 2021 takes it all back. That being said, I hope I am once again wrong, as doing so seems to be very profitable... And, I wish you all a very Happy New Year and Cheers to (fingers crossed) life getting back to normal
04/02/2021 - $2,422k - Was travelling yesterday so missed the 4/1 balance. Up nearly $1M from one year ago....freaking amazing. Being so close to my number, $3M, I'm wondering if I should start to adjust my allocation to a more conservative approach. Current I'm something like 83/8/9. On the one hand, it's what got me here so if it ain't broke don't fix it, on the other hand, I don't want to see it go away in a correction. I'm young enough that I could continue to w*rk for a couple more years if needed, but I don't really want to. Also, now seems like the worst time to buy bonds. No clue what to do. Anyway, hope you all had a nice quarter, as well
07/05/2021 - $2,704k - Another amazing quarter. Of course owning NVDA has helped. Still worried about a pull back. Being so close to my number with still some years left has me nervous, not wanting to give it all back.
10/01/2021 - $2,672k - It was a rough last few weeks. High for the Q was actually $2,792.
01/01/2022 - $2,985k Really nice year; even hit the $3M mark a couple times in the last few months. Just bought a vacation home, so about $100k of this is now gone per Dec 28th, but being so close to the end of the year, I just left it in to keep 2021 clean. Original goal was $3M; with inflation I'm thinking I might need to up that to $3.5M or $4M
04/01/2022 - $2,899k Rough quarter plus I removed some funds for the vacation home I mentioned last quarter. But, Q1 finished better than it looked like it was going to a few weeks ago. So, cheers to that. Here's hoping for a better Q2.

07/01/2022 - $2,409k Very rough quarter. Basically back to where I was April of 2021. Here's hoping for a better second half

 

[NgineER]

54.3% investments and cash only
104.1% of target when including cash flow from properties

Just wrapping up the financing of the last property we've been rehabbing unit by unit for the last two years. Didn't pull the trigger in December, too much other stuff going on and now I'm paying quite a bit more for the loan. Not maxing out the loan, but getting our investment back.

51.5% investments and cash only
98.8% of target when including cash flow from properties

$1.52M invested assets Ugh-happy I adjusted my RE target earlier.

26% Rental Equity (42% property equity)
25% traditional IRA+401k
27% Roth
12% Home Equity
9% Taxable Brokerage
1% Cash
0% Stock option plan

 

[Exit 2024]

Q1 2016 - 31.8% of our target, have a lot of heavy lifting to do in order to get ready for 2024 FIRE
Q2 2016 - 32.9% (+1.1%) of the target NW, very encouraged by the progress, looking forward to join 2 comma club this year.
Q3 2016 - 34.2% (+1.3%) of target, and finally joined two comma club
Q4 2016 - 35.6% (+1.4%) so far so good
Q1 2017 - 37.7% (+2.1%) big news - payed off house and have zero debt now. Markets have been hot during Q1 - that helped a lot
Q2 2017 - 39.6% (+1.9%) chugging along, hoping to cross 40% by end of July
Q3 2017 - 41.6% (+2.0%) - yey! looking forward to the midpoint of the race
Q4 2017 - 43.9% (+2.3%) that was blockbuster year, hope to have more of those going forward !!!
Q1 2018 - 44.9% (+1.0%) not bad
Q2 2018 - 46.5% (+1.6%) nice quarter!
Q3 2018 - 49.7% (+3.2%) looking forward to cross half-way mark this year!
Q4 2018 - 47.1% (-2.6%) terrible December killed that quarter, still positive for the year though
Q1 2019 - 51.1% (+4.0%) yey!!! Finally crossed half way mark
Q2 2019 - 53.2% (+2.1%) have exactly 5 years to go according to original plan
Q3 2019 - 55.0% (+1.8%) still racing
Q4 2019 - 57.9% (+2.9%) for the full 2019 our NW went up by 10.8% of the target and we beat year end estimate by $112k
Q1 2020 - 52.8% (-5.1%) At this point we are just happy to have our paychecks and that we both can work from home. We continue to contribute to all our accounts as planned... will see how that all will work out at the end...
Q2 2020 - 59.6% (+6.8%) thankful for Q2 market gains and also believe we will see one more leg down before full recovery to February highs.
Q3 2020 - 63.7% (+4.1%) this year is shaping up to be interesting
Q4 2020 - 67.6% (+3.9%) crossed $2M mark on out NW, not complaining at all
Q1 2021 - 70.0% (+2.4%) nice small milestone!
Q2 2021 - 73.9% (+3.9%)
Q3 2021 - 74.4% (+0.5%) green for the quarter - that what counts
Q4 2021 - 78.7% (+4.3%) six years of racing here
Q1 2022 - 77.2% (-1.5%) slightly down, will see how it will go this year ...

Q2 2022 - 70.4% (-6.8%) rough quarter and we are back to Q1 2021

 

[Exit 2024]

07/01/2022 - $2,409k Very rough quarter. Basically back to where I was April of 2021. Here's hoping for a better second half

we are about same as you - back to April 2021, trying to stay positive and rebalance into stocks according to the plan

btw, I stole your posting format, hope you do not mind, it is great and keeps perspective on how far we already went

 

[luv2hunt]

Down about 175k for the quarter. Started the year of invested assets at 92% of our goal and ended Q1 at 89% (4.897M).

Down 325k for the quarter and ended at 83% (4.571M). I'm also back to roughly Q1 2021 numbers.

 

[brokrken]

btw, I stole your posting format, hope you do not mind, it is great and keeps perspective on how far we already went

Of course not. The format has been very motivating....until this quarter

 

[pjigar]

It has been a while since this class posted any update. So I am waking up the thread.


Our original FIRE date was 2024 based on "nestegg=expenses*36" formula. Our expenses are creeping up now so am not sure where we will end up with. Our portfolio is at 80% of target and current projected FIRE date is 2025. The inflation in a next couple of years may push the date out even further! Keeping fingers crossed.

 

[Toast]

Thanks for the update. The Class of 2024 seems to be pretty quiet. I wonder if it is because of the down markets and uncertainty of these times. My date was Fall 2024, but there is no way I will retire until the world returns to a more even keel.