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Old 11-15-2018, 08:08 AM   #41
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Old 11-15-2018, 08:31 AM   #42
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90% is considered very high for most anyone.

That may be true, but if you don't need those funds, it is a good percentage or even higher IMO.
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:57 AM   #43
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The machines are battling it out. You trust the fire calculator. You believe in it. Or you don't. Buffet believes in the system. He's rich & no ones fool. Have faith the system is a collective interest mechanism. Be resonable about expectations. Be the ball Danny
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Old 11-15-2018, 11:31 AM   #44
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90% is considered very high for most anyone.
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That may be true, but if you don't need those funds, it is a good percentage or even higher IMO.
Yes exactly my point. There are definitely posters here who have made it clear they don't depend on the market investments, but wish to leave a legacy and are willing to ride the roller coaster.
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Old 11-15-2018, 06:09 PM   #45
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90% is not necessarily high. I'm at 100% equities and intend to maintain it when I retire (ok, the realities of banking mean it will likely be more like 99%/1%), because my goal is maximizing success over a 60 year period without having to lower withdrawals. For that time horizon, 100% equities and a 3% withdrawal rate (slightly lower than actually needed for 100% survival because like everybody on here, I pad) historically works best.
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Old 11-15-2018, 09:49 PM   #46
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90% is considered very high for most anyone.
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100 - age = percentage for equities

90% at 54 could get you into trouble ... which you've already begun to experience.
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90% is not necessarily high. I'm at 100% equities and intend to maintain it when I retire (ok, the realities of banking mean it will likely be more like 99%/1%), because my goal is maximizing success over a 60 year period without having to lower withdrawals. For that time horizon, 100% equities and a 3% withdrawal rate (slightly lower than actually needed for 100% survival because like everybody on here, I pad) historically works best.
Agreed that 90% is not necessarily high. IIRC historical success is pretty flat from ~ 95% equities, down to ~ 35% equities. Then a pretty sharp curve down below 35%. I prefer to be closer to the middle of that flat range, ~ 75/25, and I'd rather be 95/5 than 20/80.

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Old 11-15-2018, 10:02 PM   #47
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Everything is relative to one’s situation. Portfolio size, desired income/expenses, age, retired or not, etc. So blanket statements about asset allocation are useless outside the context of an individual’s situation.
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Old 11-18-2018, 05:19 AM   #48
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You mean the longest bull market in history? The one that has been ongoing since 2009? Yeah, tough times out there. lol
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Old 11-18-2018, 07:34 AM   #49
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Being 100% means selling low for certain. But I guess if the amount you sell low is small enough, that extra few percent in equities will benefit in the long run.
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Old 11-18-2018, 08:12 AM   #50
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Many folks talk a big game about their sky high equity allocations and will continue to, seemingly wearing it as a badge of honor - no fear.

We've seen this before back in 2007/2008, as well as 1999/2000.

When the downturn comes, then we'll see the outpouring of mea culpas and articles about folks who had millions to their name and watched a significant portion of it disappear.

My belief is that many folks have become much too complacent during this bull market and have unrealistic growth expectations.

Some will point to Buffett's statement about 90/10, but Buffett is different. If you have a $1 billion portfolio (for example), having "only" $100 million in safer things is likely not going to hurt your lifestyle much, even if the $900 million went down in value significantly. However, for those who "only" have $1 million, should that $900,000 equity portion take a nice haircut, the effects can be enormous.

Back to the OP, with 90% equities - a 40% hair cut could push his FIRE date out another 10 years, 20 years, or potentially make retirement near impossible. For a 54 year old, again, considering sequence of returns risk, the remaining time may not be sufficient to recoup paper losses experienced in the years just prior to an intended retirement date.
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Old 11-18-2018, 08:19 AM   #51
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Yes, it is padded. The variable is healthcare. After looking at Healthcare.gov and my projected withdrawal, I’ve padded healthcare expense by at least $500/month -$700/month more than the quotes.
I also have $6000-$6500/year budget for a European vacation, which we could cut. We already have 3-4 weeks timeshare/timeshare exchange for US vacations. I still have Cable, so we could cut the cord.
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I’m 54 .. my equities are 90% .. was thinking of shifting 10% more to bonds.
Have you played with the Investigate tab and looked the most you can spend at a defined success level and/or how asset allocation impacts your results? Looks like you have $12-15k of padding in your spending.

95% success would be plenty good in my book.
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Old 11-19-2018, 01:04 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Many folks talk a big game about their sky high equity allocations and will continue to, seemingly wearing it as a badge of honor - no fear.

We've seen this before back in 2007/2008, as well as 1999/2000.

When the downturn comes, then we'll see the outpouring of mea culpas and articles about folks who had millions to their name and watched a significant portion of it disappear.

My belief is that many folks have become much too complacent during this bull market and have unrealistic growth expectations.

Some will point to Buffett's statement about 90/10, but Buffett is different. If you have a $1 billion portfolio (for example), having "only" $100 million in safer things is likely not going to hurt your lifestyle much, even if the $900 million went down in value significantly. However, for those who "only" have $1 million, should that $900,000 equity portion take a nice haircut, the effects can be enormous.

Back to the OP, with 90% equities - a 40% hair cut could push his FIRE date out another 10 years, 20 years, or potentially make retirement near impossible. For a 54 year old, again, considering sequence of returns risk, the remaining time may not be sufficient to recoup paper losses experienced in the years just prior to an intended retirement date.

Same thinking here.

We have modest nest egg with a fairly heavy draw until SS. Moved my allocation from 80-90% equities to 50-60% equities in 2014 and 2015, when we FIRE'd. Never bothered to calculate how much $$ I "lost" trimming back equities and missing the rising market. Needed to sleep well at night. Still remember 2009, when I didn't look at my holdings for months...
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Old 11-19-2018, 03:06 PM   #53
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2 years from retirement, I've been dialing back equites all year. I don't look at how much I've lost in the short term, because I think have actually made money going into fixed income and fixed income like assets.
I will dial it back up after the next big crater. Am I doing dirty timing or just adjusting my AA to my stage in life? You decide.
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:38 AM   #54
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Tariffs and short term market moves are just noise and there will always be noise. I do not think either add any real value to the FIRE decision.
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Nope, tariffs will be old news by 2020. There will be something else to worry about. But there will always be something to worry about.
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There’s always stock market noise.
OP, suggest that you reflect upon the above posts: trite but true.
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Old 11-20-2018, 11:43 AM   #55
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What? I can't hear you. It's really noisy out here
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:09 PM   #56
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I'm at 85% equities, but 21% of the 85% are in my company ESOP, which fluctuates much less than the markets on average. I consider it a diversified mid-cap mutual fund in equivalent (the company's business lines and clients are diverse). I have 6% in bonds, and 10% in a money market account. The 10% represents a 3-year spending amount. I WAS at 99-100% success rate before the recent downturn, but that success rate included 50% discretionary spending. So, while I might not be able to spend as freely as I'd predicted/wanted, I think ER, is pretty safe, even with my AA. Thoughts?
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Old 11-20-2018, 04:23 PM   #57
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Why move the retirement out? Unless you drank the Kool Aid of the 95 % success rate with a 75% AA and no pension.
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Old 11-20-2018, 05:05 PM   #58
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The pension kids have a big advantage in the ER game fur shur.
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:40 PM   #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by njhowie View Post
Many folks talk a big game about their sky high equity allocations and will continue to, seemingly wearing it as a badge of honor - no fear.

We've seen this before back in 2007/2008, as well as 1999/2000.

When the downturn comes, then we'll see the outpouring of mea culpas and articles about folks who had millions to their name and watched a significant portion of it disappear.
I was 100% in 2007/2008 and 1999/2000 as well. While I'm growing my money those are investing opportunities. After I retire with a 3% withdrawal rate, the downturns are already accounted for.
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Old 11-20-2018, 06:47 PM   #60
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I don’t understand why folks take more risk than they need to. Things to ponder.
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