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With this Market, most likely moving FIRE from 2020 to 2022
11-12-2018, 02:16 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 1,967
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With this Market, most likely moving FIRE from 2020 to 2022
Was hoping to retire at the beginning of 2020. But I'm now aiming for 2022.
With the tariffs and trade war affecting supply chain and the Feds continuing to raise interest rates, the market's looks pretty spooked. Still hoping decision makers will change their policy soon.
Firecalc says I'm 97%-99% ok for 2020, but still don't feel comfy.
Anyone else changing their target dates?
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No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
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11-12-2018, 02:20 PM
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#2
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Nope.
Maybe I'm just not good at mood detection, but I don't see how a bad day or two tells me that the market is "spooked".
And if I were that dependent on an "unspooked" market, I wouldn't be planning retirement anyway. My plans are unchanged.
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11-12-2018, 02:27 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
Firecalc says I'm 97%-99% ok for 2020, but still don't feel comfy.
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IMO, the above statement might be a valid reason to reevaluate your FIRE date. OTOH, tariffs and short term market moves are just noise and there will always be noise. I do not think either add any real value to the FIRE decision.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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11-12-2018, 03:09 PM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,226
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It's the old argument of what % does one need?
What happens if you are at 100% with Firecalc, but less than 100% with other calculators?
In my case I retired in 2017, but could not find work and just would have gone to Plan B of a LCOL area/living abroad.
__________________
TGIM
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11-12-2018, 03:13 PM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Class of 2020 for me. I've been building a fortress around me for the last year. I am not basing my retirement go/no go on the markets. Too important to be dependent on something you can't control.
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11-12-2018, 03:17 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
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Psst, hey markets... Boo!!!!
Aw crap, they're already closed and I wanted to spook them.
But seriously, if a volatile market is a concern, you probably should consider hiring an FA, or strap in - its always gonna be a bumpy ride.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
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11-12-2018, 04:03 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 1,890
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I am planning to retire in 2021, but if some things go well, I would love to push that up to 2019. A 40% drop in the market would mean 2021, though.
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11-12-2018, 04:24 PM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 770
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My first potential retirement date is June 2019 (at age 60) but I agree with the OP - I will re-evaluate if the markets continue to be so schizophrenic. Dealing with COBRA and/or ACA is challenging enough. Not interested in dealing with wild market swings at the same time. If I have the benefit of allowing things to 'settle' a bit, I'll do so.
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11-12-2018, 04:37 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 7,544
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This why bond and cash allocation are so important. Take comfort on the fact that you do not NEED to sell equities for x years.
And did your notice, the market is not down that much overall. Having the right mental game is important.
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11-12-2018, 04:49 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888
Was hoping to retire at the beginning of 2020. But I'm now aiming for 2022...
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Uh Oh! Not OMY, but TMY?
I dunno. I am eligible for SS but have not thought about taking it prior to 70.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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11-12-2018, 05:11 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecfo
This why bond and cash allocation are so important. Take comfort on the fact that you do not NEED to sell equities for x years.
And did your notice, the market is not down that much overall. Having the right mental game is important.
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+1
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11-12-2018, 05:57 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Beaverton
Posts: 1,382
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Agree here. Maybe I was distracted so not sure how old you are. That would also have a bearing for me.
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Jump in, the water's warm.
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11-12-2018, 06:18 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 3,995
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The best time you can possibly retire is at the beginning of a down market, so this may be perfect timing for you.
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11-12-2018, 06:39 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Beaverton
Posts: 1,382
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ready
The best time you can possibly retire is at the beginning of a down market, so this may be perfect timing for you.
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Please educate me on why that would be the case
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Jump in, the water's warm.
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11-12-2018, 06:43 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Southern California
Posts: 3,995
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bir48die
Please educate me on why that would be the case
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Because you establish your initial withdrawal rate based on the reduced portfolio value. If the value then rises in the early years, you will have the opportunity to increase your withdrawals to take advantage of the gains.
Conversely, if you retire at an all time high and based your withdrawal rate on the portfolio value at its peak, you then have to deal with sequence of returns risk and the possibility of having to cut back on your withdrawals to reduce your risk of an early portfolio depletion.
Search for threads on sequence of returns risk for a more detailed analysis.
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11-12-2018, 07:01 PM
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#16
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 5,656
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Nope, tariffs will be old news by 2020. There will be something else to worry about. But there will always be something to worry about.
__________________
Use it up, wear it out, make it do or do without.
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11-12-2018, 07:15 PM
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#17
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2018
Posts: 34
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Sticking with 2020. I have a five year CD ladder to get me through if needed.
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11-12-2018, 07:25 PM
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#18
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2018
Posts: 81
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No change to the plan here. There’s always stock market noise. Keeping asset allocations and time line- 3 months till fire! Will let y’all know how it goes.
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11-12-2018, 08:09 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 9,414
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I retired in early months of 2016. Things were iffy, market going side ways and was coming off of returns at the last month's of 2015. I planned for what the times presented and retired if though it wasn't a very good time market wise.
Now looking back it was a great time because markets rose over 8000 points in those few short years.
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11-12-2018, 08:14 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,001
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ready
Because you establish your initial withdrawal rate based on the reduced portfolio value. If the value then rises in the early years, you will have the opportunity to increase your withdrawals to take advantage of the gains.
Conversely, if you retire at an all time high and based your withdrawal rate on the portfolio value at its peak, you then have to deal with sequence of returns risk and the possibility of having to cut back on your withdrawals to reduce your risk of an early portfolio depletion.
Search for threads on sequence of returns risk for a more detailed analysis.
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I think you mean at the end of a bear market when it stops going down. Bear markets are measured peak to trough.
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