Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Adjust Spending Level for Success Rate Strange Results
Old 11-28-2022, 06:44 AM   #1
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2022
Location: Dubai
Posts: 1
Adjust Spending Level for Success Rate Strange Results

Hello,
When I use this input data:

Withdrawals 60,000
Plan End 50
95% Rule from WorkLess, Live More*
Percentage used for 95% Rule* 0
Bernicke Spending Reductions*
Current Age (for scheduling Bernicke spending reductions)* 48
Starting Portfolio 50,000
Percent in Stocks 90%
Expense Ratio 0.04%
Retirement Year* 2032
Contributions until then* 65,000
Social Security* 0
Starting in* 2035
Spouse Social Security* 0
Starting in* 2037
Other withdrawal change* +0
Starting in* 2025
Inflation adjusted* yes
Other withdrawal change* +0
Starting in* 2027
Inflation adjusted* yes
Other withdrawal change* +0
Starting in* 2031
Inflation adjusted* yes
Lump sum change to portfolio* +135,000
In year 2032
Lump sum change to portfolio* +75,000
In year * 2032
Lump sum change to portfolio* +0
In year * 2040
Inflation Rate selected* CPI
Fixed income model * LongInterest
Override start year* 1871
Terminal Value* 0
US Micro Cap** 10
US Small** 10
US Small Value** 10
S&P 500** 40
US Large Value** 40
US LT Treasury** 10
LT Corporate Bond** 15
1 Month Treasury** 5

and select "Given a success rate, determine spending level for a set portfolio, or portfolio for a set spending level" in the Investigate tab, I'm getting a flat line in the resulting graph (see attachment) that is only showing very low spending levels:


If I increase the "starting portfolio" value to something high enough, then the resulting graph makes more sense.

Any idea why this is happening?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg Screen Shot 2022-11-28 at 4.40.53 PM.jpg (227.6 KB, 63 views)
faridghar is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-18-2023, 03:30 PM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
I am getting strange results as well. When I do some experimenting to see what my spending level could be at a 99% safety rate, I get a ginormous number.
Anyone else having these issues pop up?
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 03:38 PM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,304
I just reran my numbers and all seems fine.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 03:40 PM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Interesting. I'll close it all and try again. Then again, I wouldn't mind having over 800K to spend each year...
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 04:00 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Nope, I got the same when I went to the "investigate" button to see how much I could actually spend, given a 99% success rate. I would be broke before you know it if I spent the $866K it is suggesting...

I've used it in the past and it has worked well and been helpful as I tend to have a hard time thinking I can actually branch out and spend more money. I'm setting up a new kind of budget right now so that I can have the confidence to go ahead and spend a bit more. But, wow, not $866K!!
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 04:06 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by steady saver View Post
Nope, I got the same when I went to the "investigate" button to see how much I could actually spend, given a 99% success rate. I would be broke before you know it if I spent the $866K it is suggesting...

I've used it in the past and it has worked well and been helpful as I tend to have a hard time thinking I can actually branch out and spend more money. I'm setting up a new kind of budget right now so that I can have the confidence to go ahead and spend a bit more. But, wow, not $866K!!
Try FIcalc. Itís just like FireCalc, but with more options, withdrawal plans and what ifs. See if it gives you any different results. Here is the link
https://ficalc.app/
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 04:37 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Thanks! I'll give that a try. I do love playing with these toys.
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 05:10 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Quote:
Originally Posted by COcheesehead View Post
Try FIcalc. Itís just like FireCalc, but with more options, withdrawal plans and what ifs. See if it gives you any different results. Here is the link
https://ficalc.app/
Okay, I did some preliminary playing around with it. What's the percentage that's reasonable on the "large end portfolio" area? I understand if that figure is high then it means you could spend a lot more and still be comfortable. But I'm not sure I completely understand what's a good conservative percentage. It has be being able to withdraw/spend about 40% more than I was allowing and still with a reasonable% in that large end portfolio area.

It is SO hard to go from saving to spending. I know I'm not the only one that struggles with this.
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 05:32 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
wow, now I'm really confused. Firecalc seems to change everytime I plug a new withdrawal number in. I have checked and triple checked my inputs but it is back to a fairly conservative number while the FIcalc is much more lenient in what it says I could comfortably spend.
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 05:50 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 14,829
Quote:
Originally Posted by steady saver View Post
wow, now I'm really confused. Firecalc seems to change everytime I plug a new withdrawal number in. I have checked and triple checked my inputs but it is back to a fairly conservative number while the FIcalc is much more lenient in what it says I could comfortably spend.
When I use a calculator, I always just compare it to the 4% rule plus the extra income like SS that is often entered.
To have a rough number since I'm not taking SS right now, is to use 80% of my SS.

Are the numbers somewhat close to that rough calculation ?
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 06:01 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,311
OP, the output variations you describe sound like you may have, on the "Your Portfolio" tab, selected the last button electing to use Random Performance (Monte Carlo) calculations. If that's the case, try using the total market button and plugging in your AA.
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 09:25 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Thanks Sunset and REWahoo. My Firecalc now seems back to "normal"...The Investigate tab is now magically working. The only thing that I did differently was to enter a 0 into the retirement date, rather than 2020.

I am still finding the FIcalc interesting but overstating what I can spend by a fair amount. I could probably work with it more and perhaps I will at some point. But I think I'll take the more conservative Firecalc approach for now with my budgeting.

I so appreciate everyone's input, and to COcheesehead for introducing me to FIcalc.
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-18-2023, 09:48 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 49,311
Quote:
Originally Posted by steady saver View Post
Thanks Sunset and REWahoo. My Firecalc now seems back to "normal"...The Investigate tab is now magically working. The only thing that I did differently was to enter a 0 into the retirement date, rather than 2020.
FiRECalc gets very bad indigestion when you put in any date prior to the current year. See the first sticky in the FIRECalc support forum: https://www.early-retirement.org/for...alc-67540.html
__________________
Numbers is hard
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 09:31 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 3,955
"any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."

The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III
ncbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 09:37 AM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 6,304
Quote:
Originally Posted by steady saver View Post
Okay, I did some preliminary playing around with it. What's the percentage that's reasonable on the "large end portfolio" area? I understand if that figure is high then it means you could spend a lot more and still be comfortable. But I'm not sure I completely understand what's a good conservative percentage. It has be being able to withdraw/spend about 40% more than I was allowing and still with a reasonable% in that large end portfolio area.

It is SO hard to go from saving to spending. I know I'm not the only one that struggles with this.
I donít look at the large portfolio end points as much as I look at the small portfolio endings. I can always spend or donate more, but itís hard to live on nothing.
COcheesehead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 12:48 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 14,829
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill View Post
"any estimate of long-term financial success greater than about 80% is meaningless."

The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III
"The historically naÔve investor (or academic) might consider reducing his monthly withdrawals to a very low level to maximize his chances of success. But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a foolís errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."

Interesting but not sure I agree, the basis is the thought that reducing risk1 increases the failure probability for risk2, risk3, etc...

But they are not related risks, if I decide not to drive a car so often, to reduce my risk, it does not increase my risk of an asteroid striking me.

My spending less money, does not mean increased probability of nuclear war.
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 01:27 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 7,055
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
"The historically naÔve investor (or academic) might consider reducing his monthly withdrawals to a very low level to maximize his chances of success. But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a foolís errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."

Interesting but not sure I agree, the basis is the thought that reducing risk1 increases the failure probability for risk2, risk3, etc...

But they are not related risks, if I decide not to drive a car so often, to reduce my risk, it does not increase my risk of an asteroid striking me.

My spending less money, does not mean increased probability of nuclear war.
I agree with you, but I think the author's point is the converse (inverse?): that having a bulletproof plan is irrelevant because you're going to get bit by something else.

In other words, drive a tank if you want, but don't think it will protect you against an asteroid (or nuclear war).
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 05:44 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 14,829
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I agree with you, but I think the author's point is the converse (inverse?): that having a bulletproof plan is irrelevant because you're going to get bit by something else.

In other words, drive a tank if you want, but don't think it will protect you against an asteroid (or nuclear war).
True, we have a good plan, not perfect but good unless NK nukes us , then I'll have to adjust the plan
__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-19-2023, 05:49 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 3,955
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I agree with you, but I think the author's point is the converse (inverse?): that having a bulletproof plan is irrelevant because you're going to get bit by something else.

In other words, drive a tank if you want, but don't think it will protect you against an asteroid (or nuclear war).
Basically, no matter how much you've saved, there remain significant factors negatively affecting your retirement but out of your control.
ncbill is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-21-2023, 05:06 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 356
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
FiRECalc gets very bad indigestion when you put in any date prior to the current year. See the first sticky in the FIRECalc support forum: https://www.early-retirement.org/for...alc-67540.html
Thank you. I don't know how I missed that but, boy, it sure made a difference. I'm back on track...spending time now working on a "spending" budget. Thanks again for all responses.
steady saver is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
firecalc


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
No Heirs - FireCalc Success Rate Comfort Level Vincenzo Corleone FIRE and Money 25 03-11-2018 07:10 AM
Chart of Withdrawal Rate - Success Rate - Yrs Retired Midpack FIRE and Money 28 10-05-2013 11:02 AM
Strange Firecalc Results yomar FIRECalc support 3 03-13-2013 02:24 PM
Retired x 6 months, trying to adjust to spending beowulf18 Hi, I am... 21 01-22-2013 08:00 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:08 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2023, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.