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FireCalc update questions
Old 12-28-2019, 11:08 AM   #1
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FireCalc update questions

I believe Firecalc uses annual results for investment returns and inflation. When will the 2019 results will be factored into the calculations?

And a related question: throughout 2019 account balances have been growing, which drives more favorable results from FireCalc. In order to use the calculator properly, should I use the beginning balance from 2019 instead of today's value, which is around 20% higher than the 1/1/19 value? I'm probably overthinking things (ie scalpel vs ax), but I'm somewhat of a purist.
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Old 12-28-2019, 11:11 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FireAspire View Post
..... I'm probably overthinking things (ie scalpel vs ax)...
^^^ This.

At the end of the day, you success rate will be driven by a handful of bad 30 year periods (or whatever timeframe you are using).
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Old 12-28-2019, 11:15 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FireAspire View Post
I believe Firecalc uses annual results for investment returns and inflation. When will the 2019 results will be factored into the calculations?

And a related question: throughout 2019 account balances have been growing, which drives more favorable results from FireCalc. In order to use the calculator properly, should I use the beginning balance from 2019 instead of today's value, which is around 20% higher than the 1/1/19 value? I'm probably overthinking things (ie scalpel vs ax), but I'm somewhat of a purist.
It was last updated in April, so I’d guess about April 2020 for 2019 data. It is run as public service with very few users donating. I’d donate and ask if you haven’t already.

And either value is valid. FIRECALC is an axe like any retirement calculator (the pic illustrates that), being a purist won’t change that, and you are overthinking it. You can’t predict spending or years and the range of results is very large. Picking nits over portfolio value is isn’t going to make much difference, enter both and look at the results if you want to.

As pb4uski noted, having another good year like 2019 in the data base isn’t going to change the results - they hinge on the worst 30 year stretches (or whatever years you input) for the most part. And unusually good years, which 2019 isn’t.

FIRECALC doesn’t predict anything, it just shows you how you would have fared in the past 148 years for reference.
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