FIREcalc updated 4-3-2024

[Sojourner]

I tested it out and for us it was a tiny bit better ending balance.

It's better for me, too... a lot better! I'm getting a substantially larger SWR when I ask it to show me the highest spending level that was 100% historically successful, compared to when I last used FC about a month ago. Woo hoo!

 

[Major Tom]

Yes, many many thanks Dory36!

 

[intent]

It's amazing the work you've done with this. Thank you!

 

[MarieIG]

Thank you Dory!

 

[rayvt]

It's better for me, too... a lot better! I'm getting a substantially larger SWR when I ask it to show me the highest spending level that was 100% historically successful, compared to when I last used FC about a month ago. Woo hoo!

You realize that Firecalc is just looking at history, right?

It's not a prediction of what will happen in the future.

 

[Sojourner]

You realize that Firecalc is just looking at history, right?

It's not a prediction of what will happen in the future.

Yes, as a long-time user of FC and active member of the E-R.org community, I certainly do realize that. Not sure what about my post made you think otherwise.

 

[Dtail]

You realize that Firecalc is just looking at history, right?

It's not a prediction of what will happen in the future.

Umm all serious users of Firecalc know this concept.

 

[Koolau]

Great to hear from you dory36 after so many years. I'm surprised you are still updating FIRECalc - but thanks so much!

 

[gamboolman]

Thank you dory36 !

 

[rayvt]

Yes, as a long-time user of FC and active member of the E-R.org community, I certainly do realize that. Not sure what about my post made you think otherwise.

These two comments:

"I tested it out and for us it was a tiny bit better ending balance."

"It's better for me, too... a lot better! I'm getting a substantially larger SWR when I ask it to show me the highest spending level that was 100% historically successful, compared to when I last used FC about a month ago."

This thread is "FIREcalc has been updated with the 2023 data."
Those two comments say that the updated FC shows them increased outcomes.
But the future portfolio performance will not be increased just because 2023 was a good year. The future performance will be what it is, regardless of whether 2023 was a good year or a bad year.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" ..... and 2023 is now past performance.

 

[Sojourner]

Those two comments say that the updated FC shows them increased outcomes.
But the future portfolio performance will not be increased just because 2023 was a good year. The future performance will be what it is, regardless of whether 2023 was a good year or a bad year.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results" ..... and 2023 is now past performance.

Every long-time, savvy user of FIRECalc knows all of this like the back of their hands, and I would never assume that any of the veterans around here think FC is some sort of magical machine that actually affects future market performance when Dory36 inputs new data every year. We are all keenly aware that it gives historically safe SWRs, and that these SWRs will go up and down depending on the data Dory36 enters. The reaction that I posted to my FC SWR going up based on the most recent data for 2023 was simply a fun, light-hearted way of celebrating the "good news" FIRECalc is giving me now: that we can (probably, based on historical analysis) safely spend more than we thought just a few months ago. I'm really perplexed at your need to be so pedantic about this, @rayvt.

 

[LateToFIRE]

^^^

Can't we all just get along...

@rayvt - Thank you for the reminder. Yes, we get it. Past performance is not a guaranty of future results.

@everyone except rayvt - Rejoice! Look y'all we can blow more dough now!

 

[bltkmt]

Thank you - such a wonderful product!