Hypothetcal Questions:
Using Firecalc for a 30 year time period, if the 55% equity portion of the portfolio outperforms the Total Market (S&P 500) by double or triple, by how much would that increase the 95% "safe" withdrawal rate?
For example, if the equities outperform by double the S&P performance, would the 90% "safe" withdrawal rate become roughly 95% "safe?"
Or if the equities outperform by triple the S&P performance, would the 85% "safe" withdrawal rate correspondingly become roughly 95% "safe?"
Is the above a reasonable sliding scale that can be used as a rough guideline? If not, what would be a good rule of thumb in these terms?
Of course, all the usual caveats about not taking Firecalc too literally apply here too, as well as the potential for out-sized risk that may accompany such outperformance. I'm just looking to see how much the equity outperformance I have experienced for the past 6 years may have increased the initial 95% "safe" withdrawal rate (to be annually inflation-adjusted),
(a) if it continues to outperform at double or triple the S&P from this point to the end of the 30-year retirement period OR,
(b) if it just matches the performance of S&P from this point to the end of the 30-year retirement period. (in other words, the first 6 years outperform only)
Any ideas on how to quantify any of this by using Firecalc or otherwise? Thanks for your input.
Using Firecalc for a 30 year time period, if the 55% equity portion of the portfolio outperforms the Total Market (S&P 500) by double or triple, by how much would that increase the 95% "safe" withdrawal rate?
For example, if the equities outperform by double the S&P performance, would the 90% "safe" withdrawal rate become roughly 95% "safe?"
Or if the equities outperform by triple the S&P performance, would the 85% "safe" withdrawal rate correspondingly become roughly 95% "safe?"
Is the above a reasonable sliding scale that can be used as a rough guideline? If not, what would be a good rule of thumb in these terms?
Of course, all the usual caveats about not taking Firecalc too literally apply here too, as well as the potential for out-sized risk that may accompany such outperformance. I'm just looking to see how much the equity outperformance I have experienced for the past 6 years may have increased the initial 95% "safe" withdrawal rate (to be annually inflation-adjusted),
(a) if it continues to outperform at double or triple the S&P from this point to the end of the 30-year retirement period OR,
(b) if it just matches the performance of S&P from this point to the end of the 30-year retirement period. (in other words, the first 6 years outperform only)
Any ideas on how to quantify any of this by using Firecalc or otherwise? Thanks for your input.