why different results?

[txdakini]

I'm new to FireCalc and have found a scenario that I'm having trouble understanding.

In scenario 1, we need 70k, have pension of 20k and earned income of 20k. This resulted in 100% success rate. In scenario 2, we decided to take the 20k earned income out and just reduce our spending by that much (50k versus 70k spending). All other data remained identical. We assumed results would be exactly the same, but they were not. Why?

Scenario 1: need 70k spending (retire in 2008)
have pension 20k
will earn income 20k from 2008 to 2015 (when SS kicks in)
resulted in 91% success rate
here is link from results

Scenario 2
need 50k spending (retire in 2008)
have pension 20k
resulted in 100% success rate
Here is link from results:




MODERATOR EDIT: Shortened URL

[jdw_fire]

Because in scenerio 1 your spending goes back up in 2015 while in scenerio 2 it doesn't.

[txdakini]

Well, duh! That makes perfect sense. Thanks for replying.

[ziggy29]

I put in one set of inputs that said I had a 70.4% success rate. I closed the window and submitted again, without changing ANY parameters, and suddenly my success rate was 92.6%??

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 I put in one set of inputs that said I had a 70.4% success rate. I closed the window and submitted again, without changing ANY parameters, and suddenly my success rate was 92.6%??

My recommendation is to keep inputting the same data for a minimum of 100 tries and then go with the average. Just kidding.

My guess is although you think you input the same data, something was different on one of the runs.

[txdakini]

I have had the same experience, but it always turned out that I missed some small piece of data when I re-entered it. If you look at the results page, you can actually print out what your input was each time to insure nothing has changed. Look at upper right hand side. Even "little" changes like whether you account for inflation, or a dropped zero can make a huge difference.