0.0173% of Americans live to 100

[Aerides]

A lot depends on your age now.

Folks who "made it" into the stats showing what percent lived to 90, 95, 100, etc., were born shortly after WW1. Lived through the depression, through WW2, through all those years with diseases that have now been eliminated/reduced, with less vaccines, medical advances, less of us now smoke, etc. Certain illnesses that had a 20% death rate in the 70's might have 1% or less today.

Someone who is 70 or above might expect similar chances as that survey pool. Someone 60? maybe a bit less. 50? Less even still, and so on.

So, iow, just because someone born in 1918 had a .017% chance to make it to 100, doesn't mean someone born in 1958 will.

[Human]

I used an advanced life expectancy calculator that used many factors (current age, education level, health habits, etc.). It provided a life expectancy number, median, and quartiles. Unfortunately, the one I used is no longer online.

The result for me was a life expectancy of 87, but also a significant chance I'd live well into my 90s.

Anyway, that seems like a reasonable approach - a calculator based on general population data but accounts for ones specifics.

[Scuba]

I think it’s reasonable to plan for 90-95 life expectancy for a couple. At least one person could live that long, and it’s not that much cheaper for one vs two.

[Amethyst]

Yep, dad's parents died at 31 and 55, and he was 87 when his car was struck by a red-light runner. He died several months later from his injuries.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum My mom kind of thought that. Her parents died at 58 and 63, I think. She's 81 and no signs of going anytime soon.

[Bryan Barnfellow]

My sweet upstairs neighbor in my apartment building was due to turn 100 this year. Until recently we often met while she was out walking (with a helper) in our neighborhood. She once left a tap on in her bathroom, forgot about it and went to sleep, flooding our flat a bit, until we went upstairs to wake her. Her comment in her German accented English: "I'm a very bad person." We all laughed (with her). You live this long, dear, you deserve some breaks!

Sadly, she fell out of her bed last night and has died. I raise a glass to her longevity!

-BB

[harley]

I always used 100 when calculating financials for us, figuring that we were going to be leaving $ to DD and her kids. I have no expectations of actually making it to that age.

[CRLLS]

Quote:

Originally Posted by VanWinkle I was reading at Genealogyintime.com that according to the most recent census, a very small % of Americans live to 100. I think we all assumed the number was small, but I was surprised at how small. Then I started thinking of all of the planning that is done to supply retirement income to the age of 95(30 years from age 65 with 4% withdrawal). Do you think the number is that much larger that live to 95? Planning for age 95 seems a little like overkill when planning for income after seeing the statistics. I am conservative, but I am thinking a deferred annuity at age 85 might be a lost cause for a high percentage of the population. VW

Yes. Much Higher that one might expect. According to: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/rele.../cb11-194.html >

Quote:

The nation's 90-and-older population nearly tripled over the past three decades, reaching 1.9 million in 2010, according to a report released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and supported by the National Institute on Aging. Over the next four decades, this population is projected to more than quadruple.

I read that as "once I am in the 65 or older group, then I have a 4.7% chance of reaching 90". And since I am planning as a couple, the chances of one of us living to the age of 90 is higher yet. I can't imagine using a goal of <5% failure rate on the financial side and not planning for the same <5% chance for longevity. The Census numbers above are based on 2010's actual population. It is not a forecast. They are forecasting that percentage to grow. So by the time I am 80 or 85, the number in that group might be 10% or higher. That is why today our plan is for 100. We don't expect to live that long but who really knows for sure?

According to https://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/...c2010br-09.pdf those >95 make up 1.1% of the population of those over 65.

[RunningBum]

Interesting to see the calculators flying around out there. These two ask the same questions, except the first also asks about exercise, the second adds one on parental history. Neither of these is a risk factor for me.

https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com...ancy-tool.aspx
https://www.bankrate.com/calculators...alculator.aspx

I answered all the questions the same. I'm 56 now.

For the Hancock one, I get 95, which is possible but I don't expect it. I do plan for it, just in case. Maybe they are trying to show me what a great deal an annuity would be? Or an LTC policy?

For the Bankrate one, I get 83.4. Sounds a lot more realistic.

[Sojourner]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Elbata We may be on the cusp of life extension. I read Ray Kurzweil and I believe he's right. I plan on living way past 100.

Kurzweil's arguments in support of near term, AI-driven life extension have been widely panned by most scientists working in the relevant fields (AI research, neurobiology, etc). The current mainstream thinking on this by people who actually know the detailed state of the cutting edge research and where it is going over the next few years is that AI-driven life extension—allowing humans to live hundreds or thousands of years—is likely not going to be technologically feasible for at least another 50-100 years.

[flintnational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RunningBum .................. https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com...ancy-tool.aspx https://www.bankrate.com/calculators...alculator.aspx I answered all the questions the same. I'm 56 now. For the Hancock one, I get 95, which is possible but I don't expect it. I do plan for it, just in case. Maybe they are trying to show me what a great deal an annuity would be? Or an LTC policy? For the Bankrate one, I get 83.4. Sounds a lot more realistic.

I am 57 and got the same readings. I prefer the Hancock calculator. Clearly the Bankrate calculator is flawed. Now that I know when i will die, it makes the "when to take SS decision" a piece of cake!

[ExFlyBoy5]

My Dad (who will soon be 91) is having some issues with COPD and he's having a harder and harder time doing stuff (still lives by himself and doesn't need too much help with day-to-day stuff) but can't wrap his mind around the fact that his condition WILL get worse. He is frustrated that it can't "be fixed". When I point out that he's over 90 years old and is a former 130+ "pack year" smoker...he just looks at me like I am crazy.

[braumeister]

Sometimes I think just staying as active as you can plays a huge role.

One of my neighbors is pretty active, playing tennis three times a week and golf at least once a week much of the year. He is also CFO of a local company. I judged him to be about 80. But in today's mail we got an invitation to a surprise 90th birthday party for him next month. Pretty impressive!

[Andre1969]

Is that figure accurate? I just pulled up some actuarial tables from SS. It's showing 2013 data. However, it's showing an estimate of 1001 out of 100,000 males still alive at 100, and 2893 females. So, wouldn't that make the odds more like 1.01% for males, 2.893% for females? Still a very low number, but a lot greater than 0.0173%.

For age 95, 5878 out of 100,000 men still alive, and 12,250 women. Or, 5.878% for men, 12.25% for women. Yeah, chances are you won't make it that long, but that's more than just a snowball's chance in hell.

FWIW, I had one Granddad live to be one month shy of 102, and one Grandmom make it to about 2 1/2 months past her 91st birthday. I also have one relative who will turn 94 if she can make it to October (she actually seems pretty healthy, all things considered), and a great-aunt who I think is going to be 95 soon.

Heck, one of Thelma Harper's kids is now 96, and says she's gonna outlive us all!

[kgtest]

Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

Anywho, I don't know if getting old is fun, I don't think it would be as fun as getting young.

[harley]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgtest Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis. Anywho, I don't know if getting old is fun, I don't think it would be as fun as getting young.

I think about it, but I don't get sad or down about it. I only really worry about making DW, DD, and the grandkids sad. I've had a great life (and intend to continue that for as long as possible), with lots of fun and good memories. I even wonder about what's next, if anything. I think I find it more exciting than a downer. The only time dread or sadness comes into it would be fear of pain and misery. I'm very much not into that. I'm hoping for fun and happiness, followed by a bright flash, then whatever comes next.

DW is more like you, I think. But I've always tended toward making the best of whatever situation I'm in. And it's not like I can do anything about it, so why worry?

[RAE]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kgtest Does anyone ever get sad thinking about passing on? I often do. I sometimes really get hung up on the "one life to live" idea. I really think it encourages my active lifestyle but at the same time its a very black and dark space in my mind. Its like years become months and then all of a sudden weeks, and you are living week by week basis.

I guess I think about my mortality a little more as I've gotten older, but I don't worry about it or get sad. I just try to stay active and reasonably fit, because I want to be able to live independently as long as I possibly can. My biggest fear is that I will need to be reliant on someone else for my daily care for a long time before I pass. I don't want to put that burden on anyone (and I'm not sure I want to live that way, either). So, whatever age I live to, I hope I can be reasonably active and independent until just before the end, and then the end comes quickly. I guess we all hope for that kind of ending, huh?

[97guns]

My grandmother made it to 101

[MarieIG]

Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by harley I think about it, but I don't get sad or down about it. I only really worry about making DW, DD, and the grandkids sad. I've had a great life (and intend to continue that for as long as possible), with lots of fun and good memories. I even wonder about what's next, if anything. I think I find it more exciting than a downer. The only time dread or sadness comes into it would be fear of pain and misery. I'm very much not into that. I'm hoping for fun and happiness, followed by a bright flash, then whatever comes next. DW is more like you, I think. But I've always tended toward making the best of whatever situation I'm in. And it's not like I can do anything about it, so why worry?

+1 Could be coz still in my 50's, but still so glad to be retired every day and looking forward to the next day.

[Dtail]

Quote:

Originally Posted by MarieIG Friend's grandmother recently passed at 104. She had been doing well until she fell and broke hip.

The hip injury often seems to speed up the dying process.