Coronavirus - Health aspects

[Bir48die]

Yeah, something to be concerned over. If it's not this, it's something else. This proves markets are highly emotion driven. It's the product of 24/7 news cycle and the need to panic on all news.

 

[aboatguy]

Not sure what to believe on all this. The virus is certainly making headlines. Even Marketwatch blaming a market drop on it....
I've read over an over again that the masks do zero at preventing the transmission and they should only be worn by those already infected... Doctors where them to prevent mouth bore viruses from the DR to the patient. NOT the other way around. So, when I walk through LaGuardia and see all those peeps wearing masks, am I to assume they are infected with something?
I've also read, this more like flu than a deadly ebola like virus. Meaning, yeah some with compromised immune systems can die, but most will get sick and then recover... Just like the flu.

Not sure if its time to load up on ammo and supplies and head for the backyard bunker... That last part is a joke guys... Please on don't red flag me...

Don't dismiss the FLU, the Spanish Flu was no joke and killed tens of millions* as it raged around the world...…

Now I don't believe this is going to be an event like the Spanish Flu, however, sooner or later there will be another Flu Pandemic.

(*current estimates range from 50-100 million dead from the Spanish Flu epidemic 1918-1920)

 

[Brat]

Consider supply chain issues for manufacturers whatever the lethality. Locking down folks means that work doesn't get done and products shipped.

 

[NW-Bound]

If you can believe the Chinese government, there have been 80 deaths among the 3,000 sick patients. That's almost 4% so far, compared to 15% for SARS.

However, there may be more deaths coming, or the number may be actually higher. And before the lockdown was enacted, they said at least 5 million managed to escape from Wuhan, to disperse all over China. There will be more people coming down sick.

So far, all the sick people outside of China have been to Wuhan. I have not heard of a case outside China where a person gets sick by transmission from a traveler. That additional level of transmission can tell us how contagious it is.

PS. On Youtube, you can find videos of the Wuhan streets being empty. The Chinese people do take this seriously, and lock themselves in. That should hopefully help.

 

[Red Badger]

Also, let's stop blaming China. After all, it's the Caronavirus

 

[W2R]

When it comes to the market, here's the wisest remarks I have heard:

"What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel got to go 'round"

That said, the Dow is still WAY over 28,000, a newly high value that was amazing and inspired this thread just a couple of months ago. My crystal ball has been broken for many years, but my guess is that the coronavirus fears will not inspire any long lasting market problems.

I was glad to read that the sick Aggie that got back from Wuhan to College Station, Texas not long ago, has been tested and cleared for coronavirus (he doesn't have it). Don't want anything like that to be spreading among my fellow Aggies.

 

[Fermion]

Here is what I did about the Coronavirus.

I bought Merck at $85.60 instead of $90 like it was last week.


Because cancer don't give a .... about some virus.

 

[L Carlisle]

If you can believe the Chinese government, there have been 80 deaths among the 3,000 sick patients. That's almost 4% so far, compared to 15% for SARS.

However, there may be more deaths coming, or the number may be actually higher. And before the lockdown was enacted, they said at least 5 million managed to escape from Wuhan, to disperse all over China. There will be more people coming down sick.

So far, all the sick people outside of China have been to Wuhan. I have not heard of a case outside China where a person gets sick by transmission from a traveler. That additional level of transmission can tell us how contagious it is.

PS. On Youtube, you can find videos of the Wuhan streets being empty. The Chinese people do take this seriously, and lock themselves in. That should hopefully help.

The Chinese government is taking this very seriously, as we should. The amounts of people infected is much larger than has been reported according to a couple of my Chinese friends in Hong Kong. Since it can take up to two weeks to show any symptoms it is more than likely all around the world by now. The majority of the people that have died in China are the elderly and patients with weakened immune systems. I hope they develop a vaccine very soon.

 

[Aggie1999]

Also, let's stop blaming China. After all, it's the Caronavirus

That's what I am thinking. Why would they name a flu after a beer? Kinda like Ass Burgers syndrome.

 

[Fermion]

I hope they develop a vaccine very soon.

Soon for the FDA is something like 2 years.

 

[Gumby]

Soon for the FDA is something like 2 years.

Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Schering Plough are working on it. They say it could take a year or less. It's on the FDA emergency expedited process.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/27/jj-pretty-confident-it-can-create-china-coronavirus-vaccine.html

https://medtech.pharmaintelligence....Test-Kits-While-WHO-Mulls-Virus-Spread-Gets-O

 

[CRLLS]

Evidently, China government thinks this is a big issue. All Shanghai companies/offices and schools are shut down thru at least Feb 9th in hopes to control the spread.

 

[NW-Bound]

Here is what I did about the Coronavirus.

I bought Merck at $85.60 instead of $90 like it was last week.

Because cancer don't give a .... about some virus.

... except that cancer cannot kill for the 2nd time people who already died of the flu virus.

 

[GravitySucks]

UhOh.
My FA showed up today in this suit.

 

[Hamlet]

I think the Chinese reported 2,774 cases and 80 deaths at their last update. That's just under 3 percent. When the mortality rate approaches that of Ebola, I will be concerned.

You're not thinking about this correctly. Ebola has a high mortality rate, but is not extremely contagious compared to things like the flu. So while it kills most of the people it spreads to, it doesn't tend to spread very fast/far.

If this virus actually has a two week period where it is contagious without symptoms, and if it is actually much more contagious than the flu like they are saying, this thing has the potential to infect 100s of millions very quickly. If a billion people catch it, a 1% mortality rate is still 10 million deaths.

I don't think we have enough confirmed information to truly panic, but this could be really, really bad. It really depends on how contagious it really is.

 

[Another Reader]

You're not thinking about this correctly. Ebola has a high mortality rate, but is not extremely contagious compared to things like the flu. So while it kills most of the people it spreads to, it doesn't tend to spread very fast/far.

If this virus actually has a two week period where it is contagious without symptoms, and if it is actually much more contagious than the flu like they are saying, this thing has the potential to infect 100s of millions very quickly. If a billion people catch it, a 1% mortality rate is still 10 million deaths.

I don't think we have enough confirmed information to truly panic, but this could be really, really bad. It really depends on how contagious it really is.

It jumped to humans a month ago or more. It does spread, but to what percent of the population and how fast? After four to six weeks, I would expect to see more cases than the number reported, if what you posit is correct. We should certainly have an answer to how many and how fast in a couple of weeks.

 

[ncbill]

You're not thinking about this correctly. Ebola has a high mortality rate, but is not extremely contagious compared to things like the flu. So while it kills most of the people it spreads to, it doesn't tend to spread very fast/far.

If this virus actually has a two week period where it is contagious without symptoms, and if it is actually much more contagious than the flu like they are saying, this thing has the potential to infect 100s of millions very quickly. If a billion people catch it, a 1% mortality rate is still 10 million deaths.

I don't think we have enough confirmed information to truly panic, but this could be really, really bad. It really depends on how contagious it really is.

That's what the Chinese health minister said, but health experts in more developed countries are skeptical of that claim.

 

[NW-Bound]

The dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong says the true number of coronavirus may be as high as 30x what the Chinese government says.

He also says more draconian measures are needed to limit the movement of the people to keep the virus from spreading.

 

[nancyfrank232]

The dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong says the true number of coronavirus may be as high as 30x what the Chinese government says.

He also says more draconian measures are needed to limit the movement of the people to keep the virus from spreading.

That horse has already left the barn

 

[frayne]

Flying day today.
Lots of people wearing surgical masks. Guess the fear of corona virus is pumped up.

Talk about a petri dish of germs !

 

[Lsbcal]

The dean of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong says the true number of coronavirus may be as high as 30x what the Chinese government says.

He also says more draconian measures are needed to limit the movement of the people to keep the virus from spreading.

If I were in a society like China's, I might want to keep my ill health hidden. Then there are Communist ideas that don't encourage a critical press.

SARS broke out in Februay 2003 and was stopped by July 2003.

 

[tmm99]

I've already withdrawn this year's expenses, so I am OK if the market tanks and stays there for a while.

 

[NW-Bound]

A Chinese woman claiming to be a nurse in Wuhan sent out a video saying that 90,000 people have contracted the virus. She pleaded with Chinese people to stay home and not go out during the Chinese New Year Day, which was Sat Jan 25 or 2 days ago. She said it was very bad, and people should not believe the government. She said Chinese people should forgo the tradition of visiting their families, and if they survived they would see them next year.

So, perhaps this was sent out before the CCP admitted the crisis and locked down Wuhan? It has to be really bad before they scrambled to build a new hospital in Wuhan, with the goal of having it running in 10 days.

I saw the video with English subtitle, and you can search for it on Youtube.


PS. I researched and found that the Wuhan lockdown happened on Jan 24. Another video from a Wuhan resident (with English subtitle) said that the local government messed up and should lockdown as soon as Jan 18. Even the mayor of Wuhan admitted that 5 million escaped prior to the lockdown, and have dispersed throughout China.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

A Chinese woman claiming to be a nurse in Wuhan sent out a video saying that 90,000 people have contracted the virus. She pleaded with Chinese people to stay home and not go out during the Chinese New Year Day, which was Sat Jan 25 or 2 days ago. She said it was very bad, and people should not believe the government. She said Chinese people should forgo the tradition of visiting their families, and if they survived they would see them next year.

So, perhaps this was sent out before the CCP admitted the crisis and locked down Wuhan? It has to be really bad before they scrambled to build a new hospital in Wuhan, with the goal of having it running in 10 days.

I saw the video with English subtitle, and you can search for it on Youtube.


PS. I researched and found that the Wuhan lockdown happened on Jan 24. Another video from a Wuhan resident (with English subtitle) said that the local government messed up and should lockdown as soon as Jan 18. Even the mayor of Wuhan admitted that 5 million escaped prior to the lockdown, and have dispersed throughout China.

The quick building of a hospital/virus medical center is not new. China did a similar thing in the SARS era (built it in 7 days).

Given the situation, it is hard to know whether these actions are late or just a quick strike to tamp this thing down quickly. We will only know in retrospect.

Perhaps what should instead be asked is what actions should we be taking HERE if we think the outbreak will be much larger than it currently is. For example, should we be allowing flights from China w/o special screening or even quarantine? When they air lift US citizens from that area, will they simply be released into the general population?

 

[bobandsherry]

For example, should we be allowing flights from China w/o special screening or even quarantine? When they air lift US citizens from that area, will they simply be released into the general population?

Based on what was reported today, people may be contagious even before they display and symptoms. So screening really isn't going to be effective.