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Good news on the Corona Virus
Old 02-25-2020, 11:08 AM   #1
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Good news on the Corona Virus

I hate starting a new thread but I felt this was something that deserved its own thread

Last night on channel 26 Houston Fox News , Baylor College of medicine has the Corona virus in their labs. Now they said they are 98% sure they have a cure or vaccine for it . They explained it is a weak form of SARS . Baylor was working on a cure for SARS 5 years ago when funding was halted. Now they are saying 80% chance they will have the vaccine to market in 12 to 18 months.

They are going full blast because they feel people taking generic drugs could be in danger of a broken supply chain from China.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:13 AM   #2
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The Tech from Baylor did say that we will be fighting this virus forever just like our annual flu shots.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:15 AM   #3
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They are going full blast because they feel people taking generic drugs could be in danger of a broken supply chain from China.
I did not think of this. 12-18 months is a long time and could continue to have devastating effects on the world economy. Relatives in Italy who planned to come over in April, stay at our house and travel a bit, may not be able to come. Plane tickets already purchased. I'm glad Baylor College is on top of this, but news from WHO and the fear of pandemic is overwhelming.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:17 AM   #4
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I wonder how many other reports of a "cure/vaccine only a few months away" we will hear in the coming months? Makes for lots of viewers/clicks and boosts ad revenue.
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Old 02-25-2020, 11:34 AM   #5
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In the same vein, but on another note, Moderma is starting a Phase I trial for a coronavirus vaccine candidate.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technolog...vaccine-vials/

42 days to Phase I is evidently considered at record speed.
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Old 02-25-2020, 12:07 PM   #6
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The big thing Baylor was saying they have the virus and understand it . It is a weak form of SARS . She even said some of the people testing positive for CV are probably negative.
Also said as we hit April she thought numbers could decline rapidly as that normally signals the end of the Flu season. She seemed to be sure things would get better soon.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:14 PM   #7
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In the same vein, but on another note, Moderma is starting a Phase I trial for a coronavirus vaccine candidate.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technolog...vaccine-vials/

42 days to Phase I is evidently considered at record speed.
The Wall street Journal reported today that the Moderna vaccine has been delivered to the NIAID for testing. They expect to finish testing by end of April and if successful the vaccine will be available in the June/July time frame.

That is a record speed.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:23 PM   #8
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There are a lot of companies working overtime on a vaccine for this right now. Best guesses based on past developments and the overall market of research into a vaccine indicate that we are most likely to see a widely available vaccine sometime between Nov 2020 and Feb 2021...

If this is the case, then let's hope the summer months see a reduction in northern hemisphere activity for this virus, and that a vaccine hits the market before the colder months arrive next winter.

The other thing is, we want them to get this right... it'll be disastrous for a vaccine to hit markets that doesn't protect fully against this strain next year. Opening it up to further mutation and the biggest fear that coronavirus would get to a 50% or so mortality rate, with it's high level of spread - which could then feasibly kill a billion or more people on earth. So far it's lower mortality rate (0.7%-2.4% based on region)... let's hope it stays there until they get the vaccine out.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:24 PM   #9
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Some things I pulled from watching last night.

1. They have this left over from Sars research.
2. When Sars dropped off they put it in a freezer and stopped working on it.
3. It will be a year to a year and a half before it is ready for Humans.

Now if Corona follows Sars, it will be less of a threat 6 to nine months from now, and we will not see a vaccine in a year and a half because it will be in their freezer! Did anyone get a Sars shot this year?
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:29 PM   #10
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Did anyone get a Sars shot this year?
I think I might have since I didn't get SARS.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:41 PM   #11
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All this brings back memories...E Bola, Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, West Nile Virus. I remember we had a dead bird in our front yard. I would not get near it. Then, whenever I'd see standing water I'd think WNV. I read the awful article of what Mad Cow Disease does to your brain, stopped eating beef for a very long time. I think I'll just stay inside for the next 5 months or so.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:55 PM   #12
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The Baylor report is consistent with an Atlantic article that said to prepare for an annual CV season with annual shots that may or may not be effective.
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Old 02-25-2020, 01:56 PM   #13
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Old 02-25-2020, 03:58 PM   #14
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The Baylor report is consistent with an Atlantic article that said to prepare for an annual CV season with annual shots that may or may not be effective.

Yeah, that is about what I expect, also. Despite what you may hear, the flu shot is really not very effective in most years. My guess is that a CV shot (if developed) will not provide great protection against the CV, either. These viruses mutate constantly, and so it's like trying to go after a moving target with a vaccine.......very, very hard to do. I think the economic effects of this CV pandemic (if that is what it turns out to be) will be much larger than the actual human mortality that results from it. Remember, the death rate from CV at this point is believed to be 1-2%, at most. And most of those deaths are elderly people with compromised immune systems. I'd worry more about things like travel disruptions, factory shutdowns, import/export disruptions, etc, etc, over the next 6+ months or so, than about millions/billions of people actually dying from this.
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:29 PM   #15
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The big thing Baylor was saying they have the virus and understand it . It is a weak form of SARS . She even said some of the people testing positive for CV are probably negative.
....
Which means the Kill ratio is higher than 2.5

Of course if that is true, then better get some of the $2.5 Billion to them for funding
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:37 PM   #16
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Now they said they are 98% sure they have a cure or vaccine for it.
Can you clarify that?

Cure: You get Covid19, go into the doc, and you get a pill or shot, and you get better quickly (like getting an antibiotic after an infection).

Virus: You get a shot and after a few weeks you will be less likely to get Covid 19.

A cure would be much better in the short term (available sooner).
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:46 PM   #17
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All this brings back memories...E Bola, Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, West Nile Virus.
I remember the swine flu outbreak of 1976.
In 1976, an outbreak of the swine flu, Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 at Fort Dix, New Jersey caused one death, hospitalized 13, and led to a mass immunization program. After the program began, the vaccine was associated with an increase in reports of Guillain-Barré Syndrome, which can cause paralysis, respiratory arrest, and death. The immunization program was ended after approximately 25% of the population of the United States had been administered the vaccine.

Richard Krause, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases from 1975 to 1984, writes that the government response to the swine flu outbreak was considered to be too fast and the response to the AIDS epidemic too slow.[1]
The joke was that the symptoms were a cough, a low-grade fever, and an irresistible urge to make love in the mud.

I also remember the start of the AIDS epidemic. For perspective:
Number of People with HIV—There were approximately 37.9 million people across the globe with HIV/AIDS in 2018. Of these, 36.2 million were adults and 1.7 million were children (<15 years old).

New HIV Infections—An estimated 1.7 million individuals worldwide became newly infected with HIV in 2018.
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:51 PM   #18
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I think the economic effects of this CV pandemic (if that is what it turns out to be) will be much larger than the actual human mortality that results from it.
At this point in time, I suspect there are over 2700 people that would strongly disagree with you, if they were still around to comment! And probably more to come.
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:57 PM   #19
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All this brings back memories...E Bola, Bird Flu, Mad Cow Disease, West Nile Virus.
Then there was the Swine Flu pandemic that swept through Mexico during spring in 2009. Out of 50,000 lab confirmed cases, there were 398 reported deaths.

We went ahead with our planned 1 week scuba diving trip to Cozumel in May, 2009. Had a great time! No cruise ships in port, so we pretty much had the town to ourselves. It was great being the only dive boat on the reefs.
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:04 PM   #20
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I hate starting a new thread but I felt this was something that deserved its own thread

Last night on channel 26 Houston Fox News , Baylor College of medicine has the Corona virus in their labs. Now they said they are 98% sure they have a cure or vaccine for it . They explained it is a weak form of SARS . Baylor was working on a cure for SARS 5 years ago when funding was halted. Now they are saying 80% chance they will have the vaccine to market in 12 to 18 months.

They are going full blast because they feel people taking generic drugs could be in danger of a broken supply chain from China.
This sounds like a combination of propaganda and wishful thinking.
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