The post above got me thinking about budgeting for HC. How do folks budget for HC? Do you budget for a worst case scenario? Do you budget for annual prems + max OOP?
We decided to budget for "semi-worst" case scenario. Our budget is for a silver plan without subsidies. We include the full cost of the premium, but only 1/2 of the max OOP - with the theory being it is unlikely to hit your max OOP every single year until Medicare age. Possible, yes - but a 50% target seemed more reasonable to us.
I had budgeted for it to increase by 13% yearly, although based upon some more recent rate increases I have seen, this may very well be entirely too optimistic.
I use Fidelity's RIP tool. It increases healthcare expenses by 5.5%/yr. So, I created a spreadsheet that helped me figure out what number I could put in for our pre-Medicare healthcare insurance that would account for the difference between 5.5% vs 13% annual increase in healthcare costs.
For example:
Our estimate for marketplace insurance was $431/mo/pp in premiums with a yearly max OOP of $6350 pp. Half of the max OOP would be $3175, or $265 pp/mo. So, my baseline per person cost would be $431 + $265 = $696 pp/mo.
After applying these numbers to my spreadsheet and increasing costs by 7.5%, I projected that the monthly total expense to enter into Fidelity should be $1240/mo/pp ($14,880 per person annually, so projecting $29,760 total for the two of us per year).
RIP lets you enter a monthly healthcare cost for "x" number of years, then switch to Medicare. So I enter $1240/mo for both my husband and I on separate line items of the budget (2018 to 2029, and 2018 to 2033). I then enter my Medicare projections for us to start at the appropriate year. I do not modify the Medicare amounts because the 5.5% so far appears to be based upon Fidelity's research of how much Medicare is increasing every year.
All this number crunching helps me feel like I am at least making a reasonable effort to plan for something that, unfortunately, is very unpredictable!
Every year that we don't end up spending the amount projected on healthcare will increase our "cushion" for future year's expenses. Hopefully we will not need to meet that max OOP regularly...it is a risk.
My back up plan is:
1) keep working my part-time job the first few years to help defray costs higher than what we project
2) we go back to work full-time for employer sponsored insurance