To the extent there are millions of others making a similar reallocations of spending to support higher healthcare costs there will be a net reduction in consumer demand for food, energy, and other consumer good as and services. I suspect the net effect of the ACA to be a lowering of consumer discretionary spending in 2014. Currently sluggish retail sales, retail bankruptcies, and retail mergers in Q1 are symptoms of the ACA drag on consumer spending and the economy. I have to believe the economists inside the Fed and Treasury have already performed the analysis and the political advisors to the administration and Congress have seen the results. Hence the decision to delay ACA implementation for the much larger employer subsidized insurance marketplaces until after the elections.
Stay tuned for more uncertainty and slow economic growth.