Pls Help with Global Pandemic

[joeea]

Any tips or suggestions for how the pandemic might work or what might happen in the book.

Widespread conspiracy theories, advanced by the then-current Administration, cause a large percentage of people to ignore appropriate medical advice.

The pandemic thus spreads more quickly and is far more deadly than it should have been.

This stuff writes itself.

 

[Pellice]

"On the Beach" was the most disturbing movie I've seen. I'm meaning to read the book. VERY sobering.

The recent television show, "The Last Ship" dealt with a pandemic virus that killed most of the world. First season was pretty good, then deteriorated.

For survival details, there is a whole genre of "Preppers' Fiction," which goes into fanatic details on the sorts of issues you raise, on vehicles, bodies, and, of course, weapons, weapons, weapons. It's rather clear that many can't wait for Armegeddon! (See "Patriots" for a ne plus ultra ridiculousness.)

And for the philosophical takes, if you want to make people think, "The Masque of the Red Death" and "The Plague" raise the Big Issues.

 

[TromboneAl]

Will your story focus on getting out of town aspects? Or life after he's left civilization and is scavenging and trying to survive?

More the latter. I have to make the stakes high. Something like: "If he doesn't find more people and procreate, the human race will disappear."

I'll be making character a strong part of the book. He'll meet strange and interesting people who will accompany him on his quest. Perhaps he'll be captured by a group of religious fanatics and have to escape.

Perhaps after 100 years, he'll encounter people with no knowledge of human history and no language.

 

[Sunset]

There would be pockets of people that are isolated and may escape the pandemic, examples would be freighters crossing the ocean take weeks, or submarine crews could be out in ocean for months.
Regular cruise ships can easily take 6 days to cross Atlantic, would they be refused docking once at Manhatten due to the rising plague.

Read up on the 1918 influenza , it was a massive killer, with coffins stacked up, and people would put out coffins to be picked up every day.

 

[TromboneAl]

Read up on the 1918 influenza , it was a massive killer, with coffins stacked up, and people would put out coffins to be picked up every day.

Yes. In that case, only 5% of the population died, most due to bacterial pneumonia: "The pneumonia was caused when bacteria that normally inhabit the nose and throat invaded the lungs along a pathway created when the virus destroyed the cells that line the bronchial tubes and lungs."

... the vast majority of the people who contracted the 1918 flu survived. National death rates among the infected generally did not exceed 20 percent.

However, death rates varied among different groups. In the U.S., deaths were particularly high among Native American populations, perhaps due to lower rates of exposure to past strains of influenza. In some cases, entire Native communities were wiped out.​

So, I'm thinking a perfect storm scenario might get many more to die. I like the long incubation period idea.

I actually believe that most people are so used to the normal flow and ease of life that they can't imagine a global apocalypse.

 

[bjorn2bwild]

The scariest virus I can think of is rabies (lyssavirus) - nearly 100% fatal with delayed onset of symptoms up to a year as the virus slowly works it's way up a peripheral nerve to the brain.
If the virus became easily transmissible and resistant to the current vaccine, it would have all the necessary ingredients for high drama. First hint of infection could be subtle as one's fate gradually becomes obvious.

 

[imoldernu]

Eighty percent of the population of the US live in 3 percent of the land area represented as "urban areas".
Given a retreat from populated space, history describes the viable resettlement process as communes... reorganization under new meaningful laws and leadership. The term commune has been twisted in recent years, but the original concept provided a viable process for building a community , self sufficient and self protective.

Depends on the plan for the final chapter. Hope?, or the end of civilization.

 

[GTFan]

Wrong forum, probably belongs in OT.

 

[MarieIG]

I am thinking the hero has natural immunity and is also a scientist. He makes a vaccine based upon his own immunity and carries that with him to administer to any surviving humans.

With regard to his longevity aspect, he designs a genetic modifier, but takes much less of this with him - perhaps enough for one special person . . .

 

[Music Lover]

Something else usually overlooked is the logistics of food and water. After a few days with no human intervention the electrical grid will shut down. Then all the refrigerated and frozen food will spoil and well pumps and water systems will no longer work.

Unless you are carrying around pallets of bottled water and canned goods, food and water will be hard to find. If the apocalypse hits, the first thing I'd do is get together a small army and immediately stockpile canned goods and bottled water.

 

[timo2]

When I was working we supported the USDA bird flu emergency responses. The virus spreads down the flyways. the birds with the disease in Asia fly north in the summer where they interact with the north american birds who then fly south in the winter. So the winter is when the outbreaks occur.


So wild birds have the bird flue. It turns out that many people that work at industrial chicken facilities also have backyard flocks of their own. but their birds can get a strain of the bird flu. And sometimes, despite all the bio-security at the industrial bird facilities, one of the workers with a backyard flock will take the virus into the facility. That is when you hear about thousands and thousands of birds being killed to prevent the spread of the disease.



The reason the bird flu is so dangerous is it mutates really really quickly and can go from harmless to people to a people killer.

 

[ncbill]

Another question on the pandemic. Let's say two years have passed, and he comes across a small, isolated population that was never exposed. My guess is that the virus has died out and that he is no longer contagious (he will have contracted the virus but survived).

Or the main character is an immune carrier (e.g. Typhoid Mary) and wipes out any uninfected people whom he encounters...

 

[Nords]

So, I'm thinking a perfect storm scenario might get many more to die. I like the long incubation period idea.

I actually believe that most people are so used to the normal flow and ease of life that they can't imagine a global apocalypse.

Al, have you read Justin Cronin's vampire trilogy or John Ringo's zombie series?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Passage_(novel_series)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0131UOUOC?ref=series_rw_dp_labf

Cronin's starts with contagious bats, and the third volume continues a story arc with a character who lives for centuries. Meanwhile the apocalypse's survivors have fueled up at an oil refinery and gone to Australia on a tanker where they eventually (over a dozen generations) rebuild civilization. They mount an archaeological expedition to North America and rediscover the "girl who saved the world".

John Ringo writes that apocalyptic stories are very much part of the human psyche because today's life is so tame. He claims that less than 1% of today's population is killed in violence each year, and WWII peaked at about 5% of the global population, but in nomadic times the average tribe lost 20% of its members to injuries or disease.

Ringo's apocalypse starts with a terrorist spraying a flu virus in public restrooms. Incubation takes at least a week to turn the humans into zombies but contagion spreads on contact the entire time. Vaccination is the only survival. The plot doesn't care who spreads the virus (or even why) but the survivors manage to leave NYC in a sailboat (no gasoline required), where they go on to save thousands more people who are adrift on military vessels or cruise ships. It's a combination of horrific violence and human nature's inevitable collapse of society.

Ironically one of Ringo's main survivor demographics is U.S. Navy submariners who are not exposed to the virus but who endure years of enforced quarantine on their boats while awaiting creation/production of a vaccine. Submarines can only carry 120-day food supplies but luckily nuclear reactors can run for decades and an active sonar pulse can kill a lot of fish...

For an honorable mention, I'd also suggest J. D. Molle's "The Remaining" series.
https://www.amazon.com/The-Remaining-6-Book-Series/dp/B01BY7JOMW
It's more focused on politics and military tactics but the premise is straight out of prepper conspiracy theories. His zombies eventually go through a genetic mutation to produce a new humanoid race that's bigger, stronger, faster, meaner,-- and hungrier-- than homo sapiens.

I don't share any of the authors' apocalyptic worldviews but I enjoy watching Ringo & Molles craft their tales. Cronin tends to blather on.

 

[Nick12]

Here's an idea for you. Radical organization develops disease to kill all corn crops to attack USA. USA secretly retaliates with disease to attack rice. China retaliates with wheat disease. Whole world starves......

If you know any insider information, I can short my stocks and make a killing.

 

[Masquernom]

Check out the book, The Death of Grass.

 

[TromboneAl]

Al, have you read Justin Cronin's vampire trilogy or John Ringo's zombie series?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Passage_(novel_series)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0131UOUOC?ref=series_rw_dp_labf

By coincidence, I started reading that today. My Kindle told that there were 25 hours 32 minutes left in the book. My thought: Ain't nobody got time for dat!

 

[TromboneAl]

My current thinking: The H5N1 bird flu infects a human who also has human flu. The viruses exchange DNA and thus one becomes highly contagious from human to human. My understanding is that that can happen.

https://youtu.be/58ZyGFwVcHQ?t=638 and https://youtu.be/58ZyGFwVcHQ?t=700

The other thing is a really long incubation/contagious period (thanks tb001) followed by rapid deterioration and death.

I'd like the main character (MC) to be infected early, go into a coma (in the hospital), and when he comes out, everyone else is dead. The timing will be tricky and maybe impossible.

I need a high stakes goal, and my thinking is that it will be to find other people and then to repopulate the species. Seems trite, though.

Other things that may happen:

He finds a baby and raises her. Yucky moral dilemma: when she's grown, and they think they're the only two humans left, does he ... do they ... you know. She's like a daughter to him, yet the future of the human race hangs in the balance. Hmm.

He adds interesting characters on his journey.

He falls in with a group of humans who have no knowledge of past civilization—man in his elemental state. They've developed a religion.

I'll probably use this structure:

Thanks for the brainstorming help.

 

[ransil]

How about an anti vaxrer on a world your spreading his message and something contagious that has a year incubation period.

 

[6miths]

I am thinking the hero has natural immunity and is also a scientist. He makes a vaccine based upon his own immunity and carries that with him to administer to any surviving humans.

With regard to his longevity aspect, he designs a genetic modifier, but takes much less of this with him - perhaps enough for one special person . . .

Charlton Heston is 'The Omega Man'. I loved the bronze bust in that one. Chuck was so cool. One can never have enough guns... and ammo!

 

[6miths]

I loved William C. Heine's 'The Last Canadian' (1974). Was renamed 'Death Wind' for release in the US. Rapidly spreading virus mailed to Denver by a crazed Soviet scientist. Wipes out the vast majority of the population of the Americas. Also, 'Down to a Sunless Sea' by David Graham (1979). The fate of those airborne on a trans-Atlantic commercial airliner as total nuclear war breaks out. Something about being a teen and the end of the world.

 

[ncbill]

How about an anti vaxrer on a world your spreading his message and something contagious that has a year incubation period.

Typhoid Mary character?

One TV show on biological terrorism I saw had the protagonist located in a megapolis like NYC infect themselves with smallpox, wait until they knew they'd be contagious, then head out to crowded areas (e.g. subways) to try and infect as many as possible.

 

[nuisance]

Life surrounding a geothermal vent includes a virus that happens to be especially deadly to humans. (Say, 99% mortality 2 weeks after exposure.) A very large volcanic eruption at this location blows a lot of this virus in the atmosphere. The virus survives because the water keeps (some of it) cool enough. Big tsunami, volcanic winter, followed up with this virus wipe nearly everybody out.

(I also like what Day of the Triffids does, where almost the entire population goes blind because everybody's watching some cool atmospheric phenomenon.)

 

[Mdlerth]

The hero's True Mission is to resolve some missing Inner Quality

I need a high stakes goal, and my thinking is that it will be to find other people and then to repopulate the species. Seems trite, though.

Don't stop there. There needs to be a goal that drives the plot, but even more important there needs to be a goal that drives the main character.

For example, consider Star Wars. Luke Skywalker needs to deliver the droids which contain the key to fighting the Death Star before it kills them all. That's the goal which drives the plot. But as he goes through his journey, he comes to understand that his real goal is to become a Jedi and restore balance to the Force.

I'll probably use this structure:

The Hero's Journey is a universal story pattern, and it's the one I used when writing my two novels (as yet unpublished). This guy has some free explanatory videos that help you refine your story arc:

The 6-Month Method – Agile Writers

Full disclosure: I've met the author of that website. He wrote a book about it, but like you he's just a guy who loves to craft stories. It's not his day j*b.

 

[Nemo2]

That's the goal which drives the plot.

Gotta have a MacGuffin.

 

[TromboneAl]

My current scenario:

The H5N1 bird flu is transmitted to someone in Asia who works closely with birds. This person simultaneously has a human flu, and through "recombination" a new flu that can pass from humans to humans emerges (the mortality rate for the 142 people infected with the H5N1 virus in 2006 was 50%. Seasonal flu has a mortality of .2% and the Spanish flu, 10%). This will have a mortality of almost 100%. It is more contagious than measles ("Measles is so contagious that if one person has it, 90% of the people close to that person who are not immune will also become infected. Infected people can spread measles to others from four days before through four days after the rash appears.").*

The above seems possible, from what I've read.

What I'm going to add is that it has an incubation period of months, during which a person is contagious. Is that possible (e.g. Hepatitis B incubation: 45-160 days)?

Also, I'd like to have it be transmitted in the wind. Possible?

I appreciate the help!

A lot of interesting stuff in this book. For example, shaking hands was banned during the Spanish Flu outbreak. Good idea that should have continued.

*I'll bet most of us have had the measles. I remember mine because I had a temp of 105º and I was watching a Loretta Young Show episode in which someone had a fever of 104º and then died.