Projecting health insurance premiums

[DEC-1982]

Very true, nun, but OP mentioned costs and premiums before Medicare.

If it takes me and DW 15 years to get to Medicare and I spent those 15 years abroad, then I would have to think long and hard about coming back to pay these very costly medical expenses, Medicare or not. Healthcare inflation of 10-14% (OP) becomes unaffordable for many people over 30-40 years. Even FIDO's health inflation estimate of 5.5-7% is high for many people outside this forum.

 

[Fermion]

I suppose there is always the prison system. I can see a lot of 70 year old doing train heists or something so they can go to jail and get medical care.

 

[bradaz2488]

Healthcare costs is one of my hot buttons, so I'm trying hard to keep my reply short and on topic (not ranting). In our ER plan I assume a 7.5% increase every year. DW still works so I'm only covering my coverage until see retires in 4 years. I'm still grandfathered in a BCBS high deductible plan ($13K max OOP). So right now my premiums are $244/month. I just got notified that I can stay on my policy until Dec'17, but my new premium cost will be sent to me sometime early Mar'17. I'm terrified on what the new cost will be. It would not surprise me if it doubles given all of the increases in other ACA plans. If I add the total amount of money that I plan to spend on healthcare cost for 44 years it is $1.8M (inflated dollars). This represents 26% of what of total plan expenses for 44 years. This seems like a lot of money, but I'm still worried I did not plan enough for healthcare costs. Healthcare is defiantly one of the top 3 things (SS and infrastructure) that is broken in this country and I do not see the clowns in Washington fixing any of these issue soon. When I was making the decision to retire early 4 years ago Healthcare costs was the only "financial" barrier that was holding me back. I just had to tell myself it was out of my control and if it end up that I can not afford it then 95% of the country will not be able to afford it. When I retired it felt so good not having to pay $60K-$70K per year in taxes to the clowns that do not do anything. I'm afraid Healthcare costs on the same path where we will pay a high cost for little coverage. They keep changing the rules every year on what they will cover. I'm afraid it will get worse before it gets better..... good thing I kept it short and did not go off on a rant

 

[kevink]

Yes, but will you still be paying for Medicare just incase you want to return to the US? Many US expats will use local doctors for minor illnesses, but keep paying Medicare so they can return to the US if they need chronic or acute care for serious things........so they don't save much on health insurance.

We lived in Mexico for three years and are seriously considering doing so again at least until both of us reach Medicare-eligibility age.

Among our many expat friends most do pay "basic" Medicare premiums though some on tighter budgets have opted out entirely. Once you're living there on a residency (vs. tourist) visa you can get covered under Seguro Popular and/or IMSS, the national systems, for free (SP) or a $200-300 per year (IMSS). Most gringos use said coverage as catastrophic backup only and pay out-of-pocket for not just routine care but anything short of cancer or quadruple-bypasss surgery (though we know plenty who have paid even for these major procedures, at $30-40K total). Private insurance is also available and can be remarkably affordable as long as you exclude the U.S. in your travels.

Pre-Obamacare we met a ton of self-described "health care refugees" down there with pre-existing conditions who'd dropped high-deductible individual plans with $300-700 a month premiums in the U.S. and were for the first time able to afford actual medical care and get in to see a doctor ($20-25 for a GP, about $40 for a specialist at Lake Chapala) in a day or two vs. weeks or months.

Impossible to know how things will shake out with the U.S. health insurance system but if subsidies and/or expanded Medicaid go away I predict a lot of folks who otherwise wouldn't consider expat options will look at Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Thailand, etc.

 

[dvalley]

Note to self - on the next go-around marry a doctor with lots of doctor friends in various areas of specialties.

 

[eta2020]

Note to self - on the next go-around marry a doctor with lots of doctor friends in various areas of specialties.

And study Spanish.

 

[swakyaby]

Just wanted to share an interesting health care cost during retirement calculator I came across on Optum HSA website under Health Savings News tab. I could see the dollar amounts rise as I entered my early retirement age, my expected lifespan, my current height and weight, my gender, whether I wanted to include a partner, and all his variables. It also showed how much Medicare would contribute within that total amount. Then, more interestingly, it asked about common health conditions, and it showed how each condition raised the total costs.

So the basic starting point was $244K (Medicare $144K). When I entered early retirement at age 56 and expected lifespan age 95, the amount became $611K (Medicare $370K). When I included my DH at age 60 and expected lifespan age 90, the amount became $760K (Medicare $470K). When I included my hay fever allergies, the amount became $903K (Medicare $560K). When I included DH's hypertension and mild back arthritis, the amount became $1,120K ($704K).

I'm not sure what assumptions the calculator is based on, but it's the first calculator I've ever seen that tried to estimate an individual or couple's health care costs.

Hmmm, $1,120,000 minus $704,000 is $416,000. Interesting?

 

[timekeepr]

Mine has gone up also also. I "retired" 8 years ago at age 48 and our family premiums were $390 with $5000 deductible. Now the premiums are $1,100. At that rate they will be over $4,000/month before 64, not affordable. I got a quote for a similar plan for someone that's 64 years old now and it's $2,800/mon.

I worked for the feds for a few years so I started applying for jobs with the federal gov last summer. I just got a tentative offer for an IT job. They will pay for ~70% for health insurance and 70% after you retire, so if I retire at 62 I can get insurance cheaper, even get medigap cheaper and a very small pension. Unfortunately, there's probably going to be a hiring freeze before I get the final offer so I'm looking for other jobs, plan B. I have been looking for a part time IT job but there does not seem to be very many.

 

[Just_Steve]

Some people on here are getting retiree health insurance from mega-corps, military or government/state employers and that makes things a lot easier.

That is the understatement of the year. I will be the first to acknowledge that if it were not for employer paid retiree healthcare I would NOT have been able to retire, I'm sure I would have worked until I could have gone to COBRA then into Medicare.

Mind you this "Free" healthcare did come at a cost, several years we voted on contracts with 0% raises in order to fund retiree healthcare cost.

 

[eta2020]

Millennial Revolution - Denouncing the Cult of Homeownership

"Mad Fientist: Yeah, I’m back in the UK now as a full-time resident—well, once we get back from this trip. I’m just so amazed having the NHS there to back you up. It’s just such a different feel to everything. You go to the doctor, it just feels like they want to help you and make you better. It doesn’t matter if have to get sent to a specialist or two specialists or whatever. They just want to make you feel better and help you get well. You go to the pharmacy, and they just give you free drugs. It’s just amazing! I absolutely love it.

Do you feel the same about your socialized medicine in Canada?

Bryce: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. And the strange thing that I kind of noticed is that a lot of the financially independent people have a dual citizenship or they grew up in another country. So, I know that Mr. Money Mustache is Canadian I believe. You have ties to the UK. We’re Canadian. Jeremy and Winnie from Go Curry Cracker, she’s Taiwanese. So they’re right now in China […]

So, I think part of that is the optimism from the people who become early retirees comes from the fact that they have this idea that they’re not scared of healthcare issues coming up and blowing up their life—part of it. But people who actually were born, raised and grew up in America, that’s always part of their calculations. And that scares them for a good reason, right?

So, I think that’s an odd thing that I’ve noticed about a lot of us."

 

[DEC-1982]

Just wanted to share an interesting health care cost during retirement calculator I came across on Optum HSA website under Health Savings News tab.

Thanks, swakyaby, I will have to take a look at this today.

And study Spanish.

No kidding, it is a sound suggestion.

At $1200/month for healthcare today, and with @7% inflation the number becomes $2400,$4800,$9600/month in @10/20/30 years. (I used approximations and 70 instead of 72 in the rule of 72).

 

[Johanson]

Can a person who is retired, but less than 65 years old, who lives more than half the year in another country, get by living in a vacation home in the US without medical insurance for less than 6 months/year under the current ACA? Granted, this probably isn't the smartest thing to do if one could do it but I'm wondering if it would be legal i.e. not having to pay the penalty for no insurance. Another question, anyone have a ballpark figure for 2016 or 2017 for the cost of the most catastrophic plan one could buy for say a 60 year old single male?

The reason I ask is I've now been contemplating spending at least 6 months of the year in a country like Panama (low medical costs, warm weather, good gun laws, and cost of living) when I retire and summers and fall on a lake in northern Minny in a place that might be jointly owned with my son(s). I have tons of Skymiles and probably will have even more when I retire so If I had to, I could jump on a flight and fly to Panama for any non ambulatory needed care.

 

[nun]

Can a person who is retired, but less than 65 years old, who lives more than half the year in another country, get by living in a vacation home in the US without medical insurance for less than 6 months/year under the current ACA?

Google "bona fide residence" and "physical presence test"....you'll have to meet those rules to get out of the ACA penalty.......or maybe just wait a short while, I can't imagine that rule will stay unchanged for long.

 

[slowsaver]

Thanks for all the replies. A couple people said they always budgeted their insurance as if they were 63 years old, which sounded like a better idea than using my true age.

The same plan at age 63 would be $700/mo and a $6550 out-of-pocket max... for a worst-case total of $15k/yr.

Unfortunately, it sounds like several of you are already paying more than that.

 

[slowsaver]

One other question ....

Is the current healthcare subsidy based only on taxable income? I noticed that if my income were only $60k/yr (my current expenses), then I would get a huge subsidy, according to coveredca.com.

Or are you disqualified from a subsidy if you have millions of dollars in the bank?

 

[Lakewood90712]

" Or are you disqualified from a subsidy if you have millions of dollars in the bank? "


No

 

[MBSC]

Can a person who is retired, but less than 65 years old, who lives more than half the year in another country, get by living in a vacation home in the US without medical insurance for less than 6 months/year under the current ACA? Granted, this probably isn't the smartest thing to do if one could do it but I'm wondering if it would be legal i.e. not having to pay the penalty for no insurance. Another question, anyone have a ballpark figure for 2016 or 2017 for the cost of the most catastrophic plan one could buy for say a 60 year old single male?

Here is a list of exemptions including how to qualify for the 'living abroad' exemption. If you don't qualify for this one, you may qualify under another exemption.

https://www.irs.gov/affordable-care...al-shared-responsibility-provision-exemptions

Rates vary by county. You can enter your zip code without creating an account to see rates in your area. https://www.healthcare.gov/see-plans/

 

[jcretire77]

New to the ACA this year. Last year when I was looking at numbers the lowest cost bronze in our zip code was $860 now it is $1090. Thankfully we can use tax credits for 2017, but the future is an unknown. I believe that usually 7% was the stated health care inflation rate for a number of years, but it had been adjusted downward due to what? I think Fidelity RIP uses 5.5% now.

 

[Live And Learn]

Thanks for all the replies. A couple people said they always budgeted their insurance as if they were 63 years old, which sounded like a better idea than using my true age.

The same plan at age 63 would be $700/mo and a $6550 out-of-pocket max... for a worst-case total of $15k/yr.

(

One other question ....

Is the current healthcare subsidy based only on taxable income? I noticed that if my income were only $60k/yr (my current expenses), then I would get a huge subsidy, according to coveredca.com.

Or are you disqualified from a subsidy if you have millions of dollars in the bank?

The 60k / year income for a subsidy sounds like it is for two people. Your $6550 out of pocket max looks like it might be per person. Still not bad compared to what I can get here.