Unrealistic life expectancy?

[ziggy29]

If you will feel lucky to live until 85 and only fund enough of a retirement to get to 85, you might indeed by lucky to live until 85.... but you would be unlucky to live PAST 85!

For most people, retirement planning is more about avoiding "running out of money" than it is about maximizing the nest egg you have when you kick the bucket. And that often means conservative planning, such as assuming a lifespan of (say) 90-100 years old.

 

[NW-Bound]

... all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me...

Cancer rates have been increasing since 1950. And they are expected to keep increasing.

According to French researchers, the incidence of cancer is expected to increase by more than 75% by the year 2030 in developed countries, and over 90% in developing nations.​

See: Cancer Rates Expected To Increase 75% By 2030 - Medical News Today.

Many cancer drugs that were heralded as wonderful when they came out were later proven to extend life of patients by just a couple of months. A lot of progress has been made on treatments since 1950, but further breakthroughs seem to get harder and harder.

Back on the cancer increase, how about stopping it? Obviously, we do not know how, or cannot.

 

[haha]

It may be something as simple as tricking the body into thinking it is actually 20 years old instead of 80.

Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha

 

[HFWR]

Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha

A government program I can support!

 

[MRG]

My wife's family nobody's made it past 75. My family everyone is in their 90's. Judging by my parents quality of life in their late 80s and 90s I don't know if I want to live that long. Dementia sucks.

MRG

 

[NW-Bound]

Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha

But as they say, "дух бодр, плоть же немощна", which means "The vodka is good, but the meat is rotten".

Oops! Wrong translation. Let me try again.

"The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak"

 

[kramer]

+1. I don't plan on running it out. That said, all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me. We can't launch a web connection to a few government and health insurance databases and we expect to fine tune our biological machinery in the next decade or two? Gimme a break. Maybe at the end of the 21st century.

Life expectancy at age 65 seems to be increasing at over a year per decade. For someone like me (age 48 male), I may have to add about 4 years or so to current life expectancies.

Here are the numbers for male (all races) life expectancy at age 65, from:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2011/022.pdf

1950 12.8
1960 12.8
1970 13.1
1980 14.1
1990 15.1
2000 16.0
2010 17.7


According to a recent New York Times article that detailed a Norwegian study on 5000 people and linked a calculator based on the findings, my "fitness age" is 20 (the highest possible score and a significant factor in a longer life, so they say). I have never smoked or used drugs. I am Caucasian. I have a graduate degree. I am not a teetotaler (which is a risk factor for a shorter life, believe it or not!). I have an ideal BMI.

But I drive a motorcycle, am pre-hypertensive, and live in a developing country.

Welcome to the strange world of life expectancy prediction!

 

[JoeWras]

I've been thinking about this since Prudential came out with their "Age Stickers" commercial. It is an interesting thought experiment, but the graph they create is not an actuarial mean since the question they ask is "what age is the oldest person you know?"

At first glance, one would think I should plan for about 98. They are probably selling annuities, so this is clever advertising. It makes you think: "what if I did live to 100?", while of course the actuarial mean is different.

I'm planning for 90. We've had very few in our family go over that, although dad is headed there.

 

[HFWR]

But as they say, "дух бодр, плоть же немощна", which means "The vodka is good, but the meat is rotten".

Oops! Wrong translation. Let me try again.

"The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak"

But they have drugs for that now...

 

[NW-Bound]

 

[HFWR]

..."what age is the oldest person you know?"

I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.

 

[haha]

I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.

I saw a very chipper looking guy walking out of Trader Joe a few days back wearing a Yale class reunion jacket from 1940. If he was 22 at graduation: 22+(2013-1940)=95. I talked to him a bit. He worked in finance and lives in a nearby very posh neighborhood, so he had wealth going for him, which is well known to correlate with longevity.

Still, you are clearly correct, most nonagenarians are not super active. I do think many here underestimate their chances for a long and relatively active life. Some think they should frontload retirement spending since they won't have much oomph after age 70.

Poppycock! Just an excuse to overspend.

Ha

 

[JoeWras]

I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.

Right! Beyond 90, I probably just need morphine to put me in a haze to stop the pain.

However, I personally know one very active 104 year old. She's an extreme outlier. Sharp as a tack, and was dancing at her great-great niece's wedding at 102. She's also not in my family. It does happen, but she's the 0.01%

 

[imoldernu]

From last year:

At the time we decided to retire, we had a detailed plan... a budget... income and outgo... and looking back 22 years, despite huge variances from our initial plan, we are almost exactly on the budget.

There are hundreds of financial planners on line where you put in your estimates of assets, and return and inflation, and come up with the amount you need to retire. In our case it doesn't work... All of the planners make the assumption that you will want to maintain your asset capital until you die... In our case, had we followed their plan, we NEVER would have retired.
We just decided to die at age 85... dead broke. Made our planning much easier. Personal decision of course, but if you plan to spend down capital assets, it makes planning easier.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f27/sharing-23-years-of-frugal-retirement-62251.html

So that was a year ago... Haven't changed our plan, except that re-doing the financials, we have a better cushion... perhaps to age 93-95. Still planning the spend-down. Have also established our back-up "Phase II", which not only addresses the financial part of retirement, but the later year options, with provisions for changes in health, interests, and the other parts of living that come with advanced age.

The "later years" when one is young, can be a fuzzy concept, unless there is a 24/7 relationship with an older person. Many of our ER members have shared their experience with older parents or relatives, and will have a better understanding of what "four score" means as it relates to aging, and the difference between ages 50 to 70... and the next 20 years.

 

[HFWR]

I saw a very chipper looking guy walking out of Trader Joe a few days back wearing a Yale class reunion jacket from 1940. If he was 22 at graduation: 22+(2013-1940)=95. I talked to him a bit. he lived in a nearby very posh neighborhood, so he had wealth going for him, which is well known to correlate with longevity.

Still, you are clearly correct, most nonagenarians are not super active. I do think many here underestimate their chances for a long and relatively active life. Some think they should frontload retirement spending since they won't have much oomph after age 70.

Poppycock! Just an excuse to overspend.

Ha

I know a lady in my former hometown who is in her 90s (unsure of her exact age) who cans a few hundred jars of pickles each year, much to the delight of recipients. However, I had a great uncle who lived to 90-something, and I'm not sure he knew who he was for the last 5 or more years he was "alive"...

When my parents lived in FL, my dad marshalled at a local golf course for tips and free golf. There were many older folks still very active, and quite a few still playing decent golf. But, of course, that was self-selecting, as those not so functional likely weren't going to the course...

 

[RetireAge50]

Let's say someone saves 20 times desired income and retires at age 50. These 20 units will be used at the following ages:

51-60 9 units
61-70 5 units
71-80 3 units
81-90 2 units
91-100 1 unit

The rest comes from compounded earnings.

It only takes 1 year of desired income saved today to supply income in years 41-50

It is cheap to plan for old age when you retire early.

 

[Dawg52]

My grandfather knew exactly when he was going to die. The judge told him.

Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.

 

[47]

But realistically I’ve been taking notice of how old famous people are when they die, I’ve seen ranges from 60’s to 90’s sometimes there is a abnormally young or old death but most seem to fall somewhere in the 70 – 85 range.

Famous people may not provide a representative sample, unless you are also famous! Most of the famous people are by definition entertainers, and their life style is entirely different -- burning the candle at both ends.

I haven't looked into it.. but I think what would be really be nice is to have an insurance product whereby we are not forced to self-insure for a small probability/big impact scenario -- which is running out of money when you hit your outer limit -- say 85 years. If you can buy a an actual "LIFE" insurance which PAYS when you live past 85 in the form of a monthly allowance, that would be great. That way you can go about saving/planning for a more normal 85 year life span. May be an annuity can be configured to that effect. Need to see if the cost is something we can live with. Then again, you should pray the company that sells it is going to outlive you.

 

[haha]

Famous people may not provide a representative sample, unless you are also famous! Most of the famous people are by definition entertainers, and their life style is entirely different -- burning the candle at both ends.

I haven't looked into it.. but I think what would be really be nice is to have an insurance product whereby we are not forced to self-insure for a small probability/big impact scenario -- which is running out of money when you hit your outer limit -- say 85 years. If you can buy a an actual "LIFE" insurance which PAYS when you live past 85 in the form of a monthly allowance, that would be great. That way you can go about saving/planning for a more normal 85 year life span. May be an annuity can be configured to that effect. Need to see if the cost is something we can live with. Then again, you should pray the company that sells it is going to outlive you.

There are some threads dealing with these products- I think they are called deferred annuities.

The gorilla in the rom is inflation. Things may be different now, but my entire life has been a lesson in paying attention to real, vs. nominal values. Not planning to deviate from this now.

Ha

 

[Alan]

According to a recent New York Times article that detailed a Norwegian study on 5000 people and linked a calculator based on the findings, my "fitness age" is 20 (the highest possible score and a significant factor in a longer life, so they say). I have never smoked or used drugs. I am Caucasian. I have a graduate degree. I am not a teetotaler (which is a risk factor for a shorter life, believe it or not!). I have an ideal BMI.

But I drive a motorcycle, am pre-hypertensive, and live in a developing country.

Welcome to the strange world of life expectancy prediction!

For those interested, here is a link to that New York Times article plus the calculator of fitness age mentioned in the article.

My fitness age according to this calculator is 37

Fitness calculator - CERG - NTNU

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/10/31/how-old-is-your-health/

 

[Bestwifeever]

Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare. Ha

"Grandpa?"

Meanwhile 20 year olds go into hiding all across the country.

 

[Alan]

Meanwhile 20 year olds go into hiding all across the country.

..and start signing up for health insurance.

 

[NW-Bound]

When my parents lived in FL, my dad marshalled at a local golf course for tips and free golf. There were many older folks still very active, and quite a few still playing decent golf. But, of course, that was self-selecting, as those not so functional likely weren't going to the course...

Yes. When I went to the nursing home to visit my father-in-law who was in his 90s, I saw plenty of people in their 60s, and some even in the 50s!

 

[Sarah in SC]

Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.

I do.

 

[Alan]

Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.

I do.

It was just a joke, maybe I should finished it with <rim shot>