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Old 10-03-2020, 07:05 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by Sunset View Post
I used to believe in this, but increasingly I'm seeing people who didn't are simply asking for those who did to pay for everyone that didn't.
Ants and grasshoppers.

We need to make sure kids are taught their Aesop's Fables.
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Old 10-03-2020, 09:55 AM   #22
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Lost me at #9. It worked for me like nothing else.
+1. Exactly.
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Old 10-04-2020, 07:55 PM   #23
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Here's another BS belief:

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."


Which seems to suggest that in the long run, one gets ahead with stocks, because they are an asset-producing machine...

That's BS! Wait for 30 years, and if you want to get out of the market and "crystallize your profits", the Wall Street Gang can still manipulate the market and bring it down for a "fire sale", just because someone from their gang of thieves, wants to enter, or re-enter the market.

Oh, and ... where are the customers' yachts? :-)
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Old 10-04-2020, 08:15 PM   #24
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A little too much wine tonight before typing?
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Old 10-04-2020, 09:08 PM   #25
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Not quite. It's rather the consequence of being astonished by the shocking difference between what one's left with after reading 30+ financial porn books, and the reality :-)
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Old 10-05-2020, 08:29 AM   #26
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Not quite. It's rather the consequence of being astonished by the shocking difference between what one's left with after reading 30+ financial porn books, and the reality :-)
Those finance porn books can be quite entertaining especially some of the older ones - I suffered with the Motley Fool Four way back when....

However, over time, what has been most important for me was to moderate my lifestyle expectations and save the rest (invest, too). It's the long-term discipline that counts. Very few people get rich quickly....and very few of them are disciplined enough to keep it long-term.

I also now prefer to read books about historical figures who had nothing and yet considered themselves rich and free because they could control their consumption....for most of us, especially in the USA, consumption control in everything leads to true freedom.
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Old 10-05-2020, 08:44 AM   #27
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Not quite. It's rather the consequence of being astonished by the shocking difference between what one's left with after reading 30+ financial porn books, and the reality :-)
Too bad you had such poor luck with the books. There are a lot of bad ones out there.

There is actually a "books" thread running right now. You might want to try a few of the ones listed there.
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Old 10-05-2020, 09:18 AM   #28
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The best investment book I ever read was "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need".
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Old 10-05-2020, 03:05 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by smihaila View Post
Here's another BS belief:

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."


Which seems to suggest that in the long run, one gets ahead with stocks, because they are an asset-producing machine...

That's BS! Wait for 30 years, and if you want to get out of the market and "crystallize your profits", the Wall Street Gang can still manipulate the market and bring it down for a "fire sale", just because someone from their gang of thieves, wants to enter, or re-enter the market.

Oh, and ... where are the customers' yachts? :-)
Sorry your market experience was disappointing. I am overall very satisfied with the last 30 years. There was the "lost decade" of 2000-2009", but it was sandwiched between two very profitable decades (at least for me). The only secret sauce I can attribute my luck to is being happy with the market average, to not try and beat the market. I was in Neuberger Berman Partners fund for the 90's and started indexing in 2000. If the "Wall Street Gang" is manipulating prices today, I pull up a chair and watch. To the extent that such a cabal exists, they would also have to manipulate prices higher sometime in order to complete their nefarious plot.

Don't read stock trading porn and don't be lured into attempting timing, hot tips and beating the market. Accept the average and you'll get it, which is surprisingly better than most do. Sort of Lake Wobegon in reverse.
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Old 10-05-2020, 07:38 PM   #30
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I guess I'd never try to convince anyone else NOT to question so-called conventional wisdom. But for me, most conventional wisdom is "useful" if you don't "need" outsized returns. For instance, I'm guessing a thoughtful, intelligent, knowledgeable person could beat the stock market. But, make no mistake, that process IS now a j*b.

Sure, you could rent - not own a home - and free up more cash to invest - and probably do BETTER than owning a home with fewer investments. BUT, again, you are w*rking, not just investing.

So, if you are willing to question these beliefs and ACT on your "new beliefs", you may well do better than just following conventional wisdom. My strategy has been to follow conventional wisdom and not "w*rk" at beating conventional wisdom (for the most part, heh, heh.) I'm willing to settle for the results of conventional wisdom - and enjoy the extra time in doing so. More than ever, YMMV - and don't forget I have told you way more than I know on the subject!
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Old 10-07-2020, 08:41 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by smihaila View Post
Here's another BS belief:

"In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine."


Which seems to suggest that in the long run, one gets ahead with stocks, because they are an asset-producing machine...

That's BS! Wait for 30 years, and if you want to get out of the market and "crystallize your profits", the Wall Street Gang can still manipulate the market and bring it down for a "fire sale", just because someone from their gang of thieves, wants to enter, or re-enter the market.

Oh, and ... where are the customers' yachts? :-)
Dollar Cost Average in: Dollar Cost Average out.
Problem solved. Doesn't give The Cabal a chance to screw you.

As for the OP list. I'll question them all but find only Cash is Trash, and Treasuries are Risk Free to be false.
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Old 10-09-2020, 05:04 PM   #32
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Your 4th point is so logical, but missed by many.
There are an awful lot of good books out there by successful stock pickers....
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Old 10-09-2020, 05:10 PM   #33
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There are an awful lot of good books out there by successful stock pickers....
How do you know that? Have you seen audited results of their investing histories? And if they really can be consistently successful, not just one-time lucky, why would they be hawking books? Maybe they descended from Mother Teresa? Oh, ... wait ...
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Old 10-09-2020, 05:29 PM   #34
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How do you know that? Have you seen audited results of their investing histories? And if they really can be consistently successful, not just one-time lucky, why would they be hawking books? Maybe they descended from Mother Teresa? Oh, ... wait ...

Haha, you should write a book!
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Old 10-09-2020, 08:59 PM   #35
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Good topic, I think there are many assumptions that may not hold true. Certainly has been this way in the past. From an old blog post summarizing an article:

Quote:
"These facts allow us to make several general statements about investing in financial assets during the 1800s:

1. Most people invested in bonds, not stocks
2. Virtually all of an equity investor’s returns came in the form of dividends, not capital gains
3. There was little difference in the returns to stocks and bonds
4. Since the government did not issue treasury bills and deposits were not federally insured, there was no “risk free” investment available to investors
5. Bond and dividend yields declined over the course of the century as the risk to investors and inflation declined.
6. Although prices rose and fell in any given year, from 1815 to 1914, there was no overall inflation in the US and in most countries on the Gold Standard.

What is interesting about these points, which would have been taken as given before 1914, is that during the 20th Century none of these assumptions proved to be true. By the end of the 20th Century, most investors were investing in stocks, not bonds, depended on capital gains, not dividends, received a large premium on stocks over bonds, had risk-free investment alternatives, saw interest rates rise during most of the 20th Century, and suffered from the worst inflation in human history.

This makes us wonder how reliable the assumptions that investor make today will be for the next 100 years. Will everything that we assume to be true about investing today prove to be false by the end of the 21st Century, and why was it that the rules for investors changed so radically over the course of the 20th Century?"
Full article is here: Ten Lessons for the Twenty-first Century Investor - Global Financial Data
Blog post here: https://mebfaber.com/2008/07/03/what...ury-look-like/
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Old 10-10-2020, 04:11 AM   #36
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11. Using lists of short sentences found on the internet to guide any aspect of your life.

In all seriousness, there is an entire industry build around "investing is hard - you need somebody to do it for you". It doesn't have to be hard if one is willing to spend some time learning. Much like the other thread about diet vs. exercise for weight loss where most posters are saying that diet has a bigger impact, concentrating on saving more over a lifetime and living below your means can easily have a bigger impact than chasing performance.
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Old 10-10-2020, 05:12 AM   #37
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The best investment book I ever read was "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need".
That book is too long. This concise book is all that most people need:
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-l...y-stuff/n12020
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Old 10-10-2020, 05:23 AM   #38
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Those people you speak of were listening to this song back in the 80s.
And those people probably learned it from their parents, who heard Ricky Ricardo sing it back in the 50's...

I bought a twelve room house, a mountain lodge,
A lemon yellow Cadillac in a blue garage
I'm a-breaking my back putting up a front for you

I bought an aeroplane, it's just for kicks
Holds twice as many passengers as a DC-6
I'm a-breaking my back putting up a front for you

Oh say, my heart goes bang, babe
When I look at you, sister, I'm gone
Who gives a hang, babe,
If my bank account's overdrawn?

I'm getting pedicures and manicures
Yes, ever since I took a look at that pan of yours
Breaking my back putting up a front for you

Let's hear it, boys, let's hear it

I own a private train, it's pure gold leaf
On Friday nights, I hook it onto the super chief
Breaking my back putting up a front for you

I got a French valet, a camp de aide
A very famous movie star is my upstairs maid
Breaking my back putting up a front for you

Oh say, my heart goes bang, babe
When I look at you, sister, I choke
Who gives a hang, babe?
I'm a Cuban who's gotta go broke

I bought a diamond ring worth twenty grand
But I would gladly trade it in for a wedding band
I'm a-breaking my back putting up a front for you

Oh yes, you
Oh, breaking my back putting up a front for you
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:04 AM   #39
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This thread is not the place for an extensive discussion, but although many people believe as you do I know of no research or statistics that support the belief. On average, stock pickers deliver the market average less their costs. More importantly, stock pickers' results in successive measurement periods are approximated by a random process. I.e., no identifiable skill. It is definitely possible for someone to flip 8 heads in a row but that does not support a belief in the existence of skillful coin flippers. Here is six minutes of video on the subject: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/v...-managers.aspx
I listened to this video awhile ago. Best advice about using an FA. Long term 60/35/5 AA has served us well. No need for anyone to tell us different. Although, when we were starting out @ 1985 Bob Brinker set on the right path advocating for Vanguard. The advice given is the advice we've followed all these years.

My DB buys in, sells and plays the market as though he's at a casino. He only discusses his wins. I have no way of knowing his true win/loss history. No one like to admit losing.
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Old 10-10-2020, 07:38 AM   #40
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I didn't click into the article because it seemed like click bait. I thought I'd read the thread, though, to see if anyone had the same thought, or went into agreeing or disagreeing with the list.
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