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10 Popular Investing Beliefs We Should Be Questioning
Old 10-01-2020, 01:57 PM   #1
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10 Popular Investing Beliefs We Should Be Questioning

It's the title of today's economic podcast I enjoy following. https://www.coindesk.com/10-popular-...be-questioning Obviously we all have opinions about investing and that is just that: opinions. What I think is "unique" about us is that we have a lifetime experience and approach to investing with the "been there, done that" attitude. I'd be curious if there are other beliefs you could add to the list - I'm sure you'll dismiss plenty of those that are already listed or shrug others as obvious . To me number 8 and 1 are in that "duh" category but the podcast is geared towards younger crowd so I understand why those are on the list.

In case you don't feel like listening here's the full list of those beliefs worth questioning (he elaborates on each point):

10. Buying a home is better than renting
09. Passive index investing is a good way to build wealth
08. Ignoring compound interest in your twenties and taking risks is ok, you'll have time to make up for it
07. Your portfolio should allow you to sleep at night
06. Markets hate uncertainty
05. Investing in technology companies is not value investing
04. Cash is trash
03. US treasuries are risk free
02. Bitcoin is backed by nothing
01. Stocks only go up
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:02 PM   #2
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Itís a bitcoin blog. Not something I would put a lot of stock in but will listen just in case.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:05 PM   #3
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Itís a bitcoin blog. Not something I would put a lot of stock in but will listen just in case.
The podcast itself is more about macroeconomic trends but yes, it's crypto friendly.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:09 PM   #4
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Save for your future retirement.

I used to believe in this, but increasingly I'm seeing people who didn't are simply asking for those who did to pay for everyone that didn't.

Maybe there is an new saying: Live now and receive later.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:14 PM   #5
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Sorry, Bitcoin is backed by nothing.

As far as adding to the list, I have nothing but old news.

1) Stock picking doesn't work
2) Past performance really is not predictive of future performance.
3) Anybody writing or selling investment advice either has no confidence in his/her own predictions or has already tried to profit from them and failed.
4) Anybody who can actually predict stocks in a useful way will be long gone on a private yacht or a private tropical island. And they won't be giving anyone the recipe for the secret sauce.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:35 PM   #6
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Sorry, Bitcoin is backed by nothing.

As far as adding to the list, I have nothing but old news.

1) Stock picking doesn't work
2) Past performance really is not predictive of future performance.
3) Anybody writing or selling investment advice either has no confidence in his/her own predictions or has already tried to profit from them and failed.
4) Anybody who can actually predict stocks in a useful way will be long gone on a private yacht or a private tropical island. And they won't be giving anyone the recipe for the secret sauce.
Your 4th point is so logical, but missed by many.
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Old 10-01-2020, 05:47 PM   #7
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3) Anybody writing or selling investment advice either has no confidence in his/her own predictions or has already tried to profit from them and failed.
4) Anybody who can actually predict stocks in a useful way will be long gone on a private yacht or a private tropical island. And they won't be giving anyone the recipe for the secret sauce.
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Your 4th point is so logical, but missed by many.
Maybe true of the general public, but I think most here get it - that’s why there are so many DIY investors here. 3 and 4 are just the two sides of the same coin?
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Old 10-01-2020, 06:40 PM   #8
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The podcast itself is more about macroeconomic trends but yes, it's crypto friendly.


Iíll take your word for that but when a bitcoin blogger polls his followers via twitter to state myths about investing and responds to the top ten items, the methodology is uh, unconventional. Iím still listening....
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Old 10-01-2020, 07:52 PM   #9
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3 and 4 are just the two sides of the same coin?
Yes.
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Old 10-01-2020, 08:05 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tenant13 View Post
It's the title of today's economic podcast I enjoy following. https://www.coindesk.com/10-popular-...be-questioning Obviously we all have opinions about investing and that is just that: opinions. What I think is "unique" about us is that we have a lifetime experience and approach to investing with the "been there, done that" attitude. I'd be curious if there are other beliefs you could add to the list - I'm sure you'll dismiss plenty of those that are already listed or shrug others as obvious . To me number 8 and 1 are in that "duh" category but the podcast is geared towards younger crowd so I understand why those are on the list.

In case you don't feel like listening here's the full list of those beliefs worth questioning (he elaborates on each point):

10. Buying a home is better than renting
09. Passive index investing is a good way to build wealth
08. Ignoring compound interest in your twenties and taking risks is ok, you'll have time to make up for it
07. Your portfolio should allow you to sleep at night
06. Markets hate uncertainty
05. Investing in technology companies is not value investing
04. Cash is trash
03. US treasuries are risk free
02. Bitcoin is backed by nothing
01. Stocks only go up

While it is, of course, inaccurate to say that "stocks only go up," it is also absolutely true that the general trajectory of the stock market over time is up. Lots of zigs and zags, though.
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Old 10-01-2020, 11:08 PM   #11
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Sorry, Bitcoin is backed by nothing.
Since we're are just exchanging opinions in this thread I dare to throw another one into the pot: Bitcoin Is Not Backed By Nothing

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Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
As far as adding to the list, I have nothing but old news.

1) Stock picking doesn't work
2) Past performance really is not predictive of future performance.
3) Anybody writing or selling investment advice either has no confidence in his/her own predictions or has already tried to profit from them and failed.
4) Anybody who can actually predict stocks in a useful way will be long gone on a private yacht or a private tropical island. And they won't be giving anyone the recipe for the secret sauce.
I would not completely agree with "stock picking doesn't work". It may (as a high risk informed gambling) if you're a vigilant trader/speculator rather than a long term investor. It also works to a certain extent if you're building your portfolio around dividends.

And this is a fun article about a mysterious close fund consistently beating the market for years. Yes, the secret sauce stays secret
The Famed Medallion Fund Is Crushing It.
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Old 10-02-2020, 04:50 AM   #12
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The podcast in the OP is a waste of bandwidth.
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Old 10-02-2020, 05:19 AM   #13
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I think about (1) stocks can only go up in a slightly different way.

Fiat currency in the long term only goes down making it appear that a mixed holding of all assets go up and each ultimate tired dog of an investment in any country can have a good day, month, year, decade, or century.

Golly Aunt Bea got any tips for up and coming AM Radio networks? : )
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Old 10-02-2020, 09:10 AM   #14
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... I would not completely agree with "stock picking doesn't work". It may (as a high risk informed gambling) if you're a vigilant trader/speculator rather than a long term investor. It also works to a certain extent if you're building your portfolio around dividends. ...
This thread is not the place for an extensive discussion, but although many people believe as you do I know of no research or statistics that support the belief. On average, stock pickers deliver the market average less their costs. More importantly, stock pickers' results in successive measurement periods are approximated by a random process. I.e., no identifiable skill. It is definitely possible for someone to flip 8 heads in a row but that does not support a belief in the existence of skillful coin flippers. Here is six minutes of video on the subject: https://famafrench.dimensional.com/v...-managers.aspx
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Old 10-02-2020, 09:24 AM   #15
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Your 4th point is so logical, but missed by many.
Right. Still in my working years with my peers all over the board in terms of our investment journeys it was not surprising to find a few late-bloomers start telling me about the next hottest stocks , Hertz, Liners, Oil, Gold?

I'll stick to my well diversified selection and those few winners that have been good to me.
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Old 10-02-2020, 12:13 PM   #16
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It's the title of today's economic podcast I enjoy following. https://www.coindesk.com/10-popular-...be-questioning

04. Cash is trash
This one is absolutely true. And it's a real problem. What to do with your trash cash ? Fortunately, there is a solution. I happen to be a collector of trash cash. PM me, and I will provide a Paypal link that you can use to send your trash cash to me.
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Old 10-02-2020, 02:26 PM   #17
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This one is absolutely true. And it's a real problem. What to do with your trash cash ? Fortunately, there is a solution. I happen to be a collector of trash cash. PM me, and I will provide a Paypal link that you can use to send your trash cash to me.
Lol, you missed the the title of the thread: beliefs to question. This particular catchphrase came from Ray Dalio at Davos in January and is on the list as one of the questionable statements.
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Old 10-02-2020, 03:44 PM   #18
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Save for your future retirement.
I used to believe in this, but increasingly I'm seeing people who didn't are simply asking for those who did to pay for everyone that didn't.
Those people you speak of were listening to this song back in the 80s.

I've got a '57 Cadillac with Batmobile wings
Pink and black striped interior that's fit for a king
No money down, fifty years to pay, be glad when it's mine
"Saw you coming!", said the dealer as I signed on the line

Live now - pay later, Live now - pay later

I got a fifty room country mansion up in the hills
My landlord says I can have it, long as I pay the bills
I bought the furniture on credit at a fabulous store
The man said, "Next time you come in, why don't you spend a little more?

Live now-pay later, Live now-pay later

How many possesions do I possess?
I started with nothin', now I've got less
How long will my credit last this time?
Live now-pay later, that's how it's gotta be
If money talks, well it sure ain't talkin' to me!

My doctor told me that I'm crazy to abuse myself this way
Too much alcohol and jelly roll, someday I'm gonna pay
No time for tomorrow, I'm too busy havin' fun
But when the bills come in, I know it's time for me to run

Live now-pay later, Live now-pay later

There's a hole in my pocket where my cash used to be
Rubber checks and credit cards have been so good to me
How long can I spend my life on loan? oh yeah
Live now-pay later, that's how it's gotta be
If money talks, well it sure ain't talkin' to me!

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Old 10-02-2020, 11:15 PM   #19
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Lol, you missed the the title of the thread: beliefs to question. This particular catchphrase came from Ray Dalio at Davos in January and is on the list as one of the questionable statements.
No, I didn't miss the thread title; that's why I was affirming in my post that #4 wasn't to be questioned but "this one is absolutely true"! Hopefully people will contact me if they are looking to dump that pesky cash!
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Old 10-03-2020, 06:35 AM   #20
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Lost me at #9. It worked for me like nothing else.
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