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2019 Predictions - just for fun
Old 12-17-2018, 01:30 PM   #1
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2019 Predictions - just for fun

I claim no expertise. I do enjoy having my small "play" portfolio seeded with 20K over the two yrs that preceded my Jan 2016 ER date. Everything else is in MFs. It has done OK and sits at just under 30K now and I have withdrawn dividends on a quarterly basis. Trade only a few times a yr now after being more active in the early yrs of this "play".

That is all by way of intro and to let you know I'm not a big market player. have never delved into options at all, for example.

However, enjoy predictions, even when as now I'm basing them on gut instinct only.

So, here goes.

For 2019 DOW floor will be 22k. Floor will be hit in late first qtr or early in the 2nd. Then some bouncing with the mid yr at about 23.5k and yr end being up just past 24k or 24.5k at best. So, really whole yr will be flat or a bit better relative to where we were as this week began.

FWIW, I do hope for much better, but market drivers whoever they are, seem to stubbornly disagree with my other gut instinct, that this is a rather good and strong economy.
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:37 PM   #2
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Just now on FOX Business news channel... two experts were hotly debating if Bitcoin has a future.
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:40 PM   #3
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I will be 1 year older.
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:43 PM   #4
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I will be 1 year older.
Me too!

I
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:46 PM   #5
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My crystal ball is cloudy... But I predict the two most contentious issues here in 2019 will be:

- when to start Social Security benefits
- paying off mortgage early or not
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Old 12-17-2018, 01:46 PM   #6
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I think we trade relatively sideways from here until the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 and then we get the backbreaker: the second leg down. Another 10%+ drop and then we start the long, slow climb back out of this.
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Old 12-17-2018, 02:02 PM   #7
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"2009" all over again for the markets.
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New highs
Old 12-17-2018, 02:04 PM   #8
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New highs

My prediction: new highs in Michigan, Utah and Missouri.
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Old 12-17-2018, 02:20 PM   #9
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My prediction: new highs in Michigan, Utah and Missouri.
We're still talkin about investing eh?
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Old 12-17-2018, 02:39 PM   #10
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FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years. The prediction we banked on, felt secure about. The DOW was at 21,580 on 7/21/2107, approx. 18 months ago. If you had asked this question back then, I would be satisfied with the DOW at 23,198, or at least thought that's what we expected. If anyone would have said, at that time, it would go up 20%. I'd be skeptical. Personally, we are not at such a bad spot right now. Expectations met. How much further down is a good question. A better one is will we live 40 years to 100? Not banking on that one. The numbers are estimates, ballpark.
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Old 12-17-2018, 02:57 PM   #11
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FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years.
5% for each of the next 40 years? Seems unlikely. Or did you mean 5% increase over the next 40 years? That seems overly conservative.

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The prediction we banked on, felt secure about. The DOW was at 21,580 on 7/21/2107, approx. 18 months ago. If you had asked this question back then, I would be satisfied with the DOW at 23,198, or at least thought that's what we expected.
We are heading in that direction lately.

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A better one is will we live 40 years to 100? Not banking on that one.
I'm not banking on that either. I am, however, planning for it. Far better to assume longevity than not, IMHO.
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Old 12-18-2018, 12:37 PM   #12
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5% for each of the next 40 years? Seems unlikely. Or did you mean 5% increase over the next 40 years? That seems overly conservative.
I don't think that seems unreasonable.


“The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, can be expected to grow at an annual rate of about 3 percent over the long term, and inflation of 2 percent would push nominal GDP growth to 5 percent, Buffett said. Stocks will probably rise at about that rate and dividend payments will boost total returns to 6 percent to 7 percent, he said.”
Warren Buffet
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Old 12-18-2018, 12:56 PM   #13
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I will be 1 year older.
I will be one year older and still alive (I hope).
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Old 12-18-2018, 01:00 PM   #14
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I don't think that seems unreasonable.
Can you point to any 40 year period where the market grew at 5% each and every one of those 40 years?
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Old 12-18-2018, 01:02 PM   #15
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I predict we’ll be a year older, DW will finally retire too, and we’ll be living about 750 miles southeast of where we are today. No other predictions matter much to us.
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Old 12-18-2018, 01:04 PM   #16
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FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years. The prediction we banked on, felt secure about.
There may not even be a stock market 40 years from now the way things are going.
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