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2019 Predictions - just for fun
12-17-2018, 01:30 PM
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#1
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 751
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2019 Predictions - just for fun
I claim no expertise. I do enjoy having my small "play" portfolio seeded with 20K over the two yrs that preceded my Jan 2016 ER date. Everything else is in MFs. It has done OK and sits at just under 30K now and I have withdrawn dividends on a quarterly basis. Trade only a few times a yr now after being more active in the early yrs of this "play".
That is all by way of intro and to let you know I'm not a big market player. have never delved into options at all, for example.
However, enjoy predictions, even when as now I'm basing them on gut instinct only.
So, here goes.
For 2019 DOW floor will be 22k. Floor will be hit in late first qtr or early in the 2nd. Then some bouncing with the mid yr at about 23.5k and yr end being up just past 24k or 24.5k at best. So, really whole yr will be flat or a bit better relative to where we were as this week began.
FWIW, I do hope for much better, but market drivers whoever they are, seem to stubbornly disagree with my other gut instinct, that this is a rather good and strong economy.
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12-17-2018, 01:37 PM
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#2
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gone traveling
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 994
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Just now on FOX Business news channel... two experts were hotly debating if Bitcoin has a future.
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12-17-2018, 01:40 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 1,890
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I will be 1 year older.
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12-17-2018, 01:43 PM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Pinetops
Posts: 521
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18
I will be 1 year older.
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Me too!
I
__________________
I
ER 12/15/2017
Now: Side Hustle(r) Extraordinaire
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12-17-2018, 01:46 PM
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#5
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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My crystal ball is cloudy... But I predict the two most contentious issues here in 2019 will be:
- when to start Social Security benefits
- paying off mortgage early or not
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12-17-2018, 01:46 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 8,971
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I think we trade relatively sideways from here until the end of Q2 beginning of Q3 and then we get the backbreaker: the second leg down. Another 10%+ drop and then we start the long, slow climb back out of this.
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12-17-2018, 02:02 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 8,363
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"2009" all over again for the markets.
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
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12-17-2018, 02:04 PM
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#8
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
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New highs
My prediction: new highs in Michigan, Utah and Missouri.
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12-17-2018, 02:20 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,031
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
My prediction: new highs in Michigan, Utah and Missouri.
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We're still talkin about investing eh?
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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12-17-2018, 02:39 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,689
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FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years. The prediction we banked on, felt secure about. The DOW was at 21,580 on 7/21/2107, approx. 18 months ago. If you had asked this question back then, I would be satisfied with the DOW at 23,198, or at least thought that's what we expected. If anyone would have said, at that time, it would go up 20%. I'd be skeptical. Personally, we are not at such a bad spot right now. Expectations met. How much further down is a good question. A better one is will we live 40 years to 100? Not banking on that one. The numbers are estimates, ballpark.
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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12-17-2018, 02:57 PM
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#11
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rianne
FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years.
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5% for each of the next 40 years? Seems unlikely. Or did you mean 5% increase over the next 40 years? That seems overly conservative.
Quote:
The prediction we banked on, felt secure about. The DOW was at 21,580 on 7/21/2107, approx. 18 months ago. If you had asked this question back then, I would be satisfied with the DOW at 23,198, or at least thought that's what we expected.
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We are heading in that direction lately.
Quote:
A better one is will we live 40 years to 100? Not banking on that one.
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I'm not banking on that either. I am, however, planning for it. Far better to assume longevity than not, IMHO.
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12-18-2018, 12:37 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,689
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea
5% for each of the next 40 years? Seems unlikely. Or did you mean 5% increase over the next 40 years? That seems overly conservative.
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I don't think that seems unreasonable.
“The economy, as measured by gross domestic product, can be expected to grow at an annual rate of about 3 percent over the long term, and inflation of 2 percent would push nominal GDP growth to 5 percent, Buffett said. Stocks will probably rise at about that rate and dividend payments will boost total returns to 6 percent to 7 percent, he said.”
Warren Buffet
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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12-18-2018, 12:56 PM
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#13
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by corn18
I will be 1 year older.
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I will be one year older and still alive (I hope).
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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12-18-2018, 01:00 PM
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#14
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rianne
I don't think that seems unreasonable.
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Can you point to any 40 year period where the market grew at 5% each and every one of those 40 years?
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12-18-2018, 01:02 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,206
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I predict we’ll be a year older, DW will finally retire too, and we’ll be living about 750 miles southeast of where we are today. No other predictions matter much to us.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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12-18-2018, 01:04 PM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Conroe, Texas
Posts: 18,645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rianne
FIRE was based on 5% increase for the next 40 years. The prediction we banked on, felt secure about.
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There may not even be a stock market 40 years from now the way things are going.
__________________
*********Go Astros!*********
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