Running_Man
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Sep 25, 2006
- Messages
- 2,844
How long do you think it will take to gather enough data (across various market conditions, interest rates, asset valuation changes, etc) to make reasonable conclusions about a portfolio management method that is supposed to work for decades? I think it will take a very long time. Per a previous post:
Maybe give that type of simulation a shot.
I think simulations work great in theory. The problem is along the way say a year or two later a new theory comes along and that is used as the latest and greatest and the previous theory is thrown out as "oh yeah I improved that". See 75/25 portfolios with "value twist" or "REIT twist" or "small company twist" or "equal dollar weighting twist", there is always an adjustment to be made to an existing theory to show the theory was good and now this is better, depending on what has over/under performed the last 10 years or so!
It is much more informative I believe to have an actual portfolio selected and going to compare and state what is good as time goes by and what is bad. And then to look at actual experience and actual changes.
Financial markets right now are not comparable in any way to a time in the past in my opinion and to pretend it is by running simulations is not that useful for what I am trying to show, that is a small portfolio needing a 5% withdrawal in order to be able to live better than otherwise possible while still being relatively safe.
I think as quarters go by it will actually be very informative.